Cited by 624Geology and Paleoclimatology ResearchClimate variability and modelsClimate Change and Environmental Impact

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 60 of the 61 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates

Open access

Burke, K. D., Williams, J. W., Chandler, M. A., Haywood, A. M., Lunt, D. J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L.·2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI 10.1073/pnas.1809600115PMC PMC6310841

Open this paper in CoChat — free account Open PDF

Abstract

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129-116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1073/pnas.1809600115

Cites

60 of 60 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
A safe operating space for humanity
Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, Å., Chapin, F. S., Lambin, E. F., Lenton, T. M., Scheffer, M., Folke, C., Schellnhuber, H. J., et al. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/461472a · Cited by 13,333
Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Carpenter, S. R., de Vries, W., de Wit, C. A., et al. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1259855 · Cited by 12,527
Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate 65 Ma to Present
Zachos, J., Pagani, M., Sloan, L., Thomas, E., & Billups, K. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1059412 · Cited by 10,458
Ecological responses to recent climate change.
Walther, G.-R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. J. C., Fromentin, J.-M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., & Bairlein, F. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/416389a · Cited by 9,975
A Pliocene‐Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ 18 O records
Lisiecki, L. E., & Raymo, M. E. (2005) · Paleoceanography · doi:10.1029/2004pa001071 · Cited by 8,584
Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity
Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, Å., Chapin, F. S. I., Lambin, E., Lenton, T. M., Scheffer, M., Folke, C., Schellnhuber, H. J., et al. (2009) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-03180-140232 · Cited by 7,187
Updated high‐resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3 .10 Dataset
Harris, I. C., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., & Lister, D. (2013) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3711 · Cited by 6,326
Untitled work
(2014) · doi:10.59327/ipcc/ar5-9789291691432 · Cited by 5,217
Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management?
Milly, P. C. D., Betancourt, J. L., Falkenmark, M., Hirsch, R. M., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Lettenmaier, D. P., & Stouffer, R. J. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1151915 · Cited by 4,563

Flagged first, then by citations

Show all 61 references

1 of the 61 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 2

; IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2013, eds TF Stocker, (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp. 1031, 1054–1055 (2013).
JW Williams, KD Burke, Past abrupt changes in climate and terrestrial ecosystems. Biodiversity and Climate Change: Transforming the Biosphere, eds TE Lovejoy, L Hannah (Yale Univ Press, New Haven, CT), pp. 128–141 (2019).

Sorted by citations

Items 101–200 of 623

Using the Fossil Record to Understand Extinction Risk and Inform Marine Conservation in a Changing World
Finnegan, S., Harnik, P. G., Lockwood, R., Lotze, H. K., McClenachan, L., & Kahanamoku, S. S. (2023) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-021723-095235 · Cited by 28
Influence of stationary waves on mid-Pliocene atmospheric rivers and hydroclimate
Menemenlis, S., Lora, J. M., Löfverström, M., & Chandan, D. (2021) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103557 · Cited by 29
Climate change, behavior change and health: a multidisciplinary, translational and multilevel perspective
Edmondson, D. E., Conroy, D. E., Romero‐Canyas, R., Tanenbaum, M. L., & Czajkowski, S. M. (2022) · Translational Behavioral Medicine · doi:10.1093/tbm/ibac030 · Cited by 34
Estimates of economic and environmental damages from tipping points cannot be reconciled with the scientific literature
Keen, S., Lenton, T. M., Garrett, T. J., Rae, J. W. B., Hanley, B. P., & Grasselli, M. R. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2117308119 · Cited by 26
Palaeontological signatures of the Anthropocene are distinct from those of previous epochs
Williams, M., Zalasiewicz, J., Barnosky, A. D., Leinfelder, R., Head, M. J., Waters, C. N., McCarthy, F. M. G., Cearreta, A., Aldridge, D. C., McGann, M. L., et al. (2024) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104844 · Cited by 27
A fully calibrated and updated mid-Holocene climate reconstruction for Eastern South America
Gorenstein, I., Prado, L. F., Bianchini, P., Wainer, I. E. K. C., Griffiths, M. L., Pausata, F. S. R., & Yokoyama, E. (2022) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107646 · Cited by 24
A biogeographic–macroecological perspective on the rising novelty of the biosphere in the Anthropocene
Kerr, M. R., Ordóñez, A., Riede, F., & Svenning, J. (2023) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/jbi.14762 · Cited by 24
Conifers are a major source of sedimentary leaf wax n-alkanes when dominant in the landscape: Case studies from the Paleogene
Schlanser, K. M., Diefendorf, A. F., West, C. K., Greenwood, D. R., Basinger, J. F., MEYER, H. W., Lowe, A. J., & Naake, H. (2020) · Organic Geochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.orggeochem.2020.104069 · Cited by 23
Geological evolution of the Mississippi River into the Anthropocene
Russell, C., Waters, C. N., Himson, S. J., Holmes, R., Burns, A., Zalasiewicz, J., & Williams, M. (2021) · The Anthropocene Review · doi:10.1177/20530196211045527 · Cited by 23
Reconstructing Terrestrial Paleoclimates: A Comparison of the Co‐Existence Approach, Bayesian and Probability Reconstruction Techniques Using the UK Neogene
Gibson, M. E., McCoy, J., O’Keefe, J. M. K., Otaño, N. B. N., Warny, S., & Pound, M. J. (2022) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2021pa004358 · Cited by 23
The warm winter paradox in the Pliocene northern high latitudes
Tindall, J. C., Haywood, A. M., Salzmann, U., Dolan, A. M., & Fletcher, T. L. (2022) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-18-1385-2022 · Cited by 25
Self-citation
Mid-Pleistocene Transition as a trigger for diversification in the Irano-Anatolian region: Evidence revealed by phylogeography and distribution pattern of the eastern three-lined lizard
Ghane‐Ameleh, S., Khosravi, M., Saberi‐Pirooz, R., Ebrahimi, E., Aghbolaghi, M. A., & Ahmadzadeh, F. (2021) · Global Ecology and Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01839 · Cited by 23
Identifying marine and freshwater overprints on soil-derived branched GDGT temperature signals in Pliocene Mississippi and Amazon River fan sediments
Crampton-Flood, E. D., van der Weijst, C. M. H., van der Molen, G., Bouquet, M., Yedema, Y. W., Donders, T. H., Sangiorgi, F., Sluijs, A., Damsté, J. S. S., & Peterse, F. (2021) · Organic Geochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.orggeochem.2021.104200 · Cited by 22
Chronology of the Mediterranean sea‐level highstand during the Last Interglacial: a critical review of the U/Th‐dated deposits
Pasquetti, F., Bini, M., Giaccio, B., Ratti, A., Vacchi, M., & Zanchetta, G. (2021) · Journal of Quaternary Science · doi:10.1002/jqs.3359 · Cited by 22
Two-million-year-old microbial communities from the Kap København Formation in North GreenlandPreprint
Fernàndez-Guerra, A., Wörmer, L., Borrel, G., Delmont, T. O., Elberling, B., Elvert, M., Eren, A. M., Gribaldo, S., Henriksen, R. A., Hinrichs, K., et al. (2023) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2023.06.10.544454 · Cited by 22
Central Asian modulation of Northern Hemisphere moisture transfer over the Late Cenozoic
Prud'homme, C., Scardia, G., Vonhof, H., Guinoiseau, D., Nigmatova, S., Fiebig, J., Gerdes, A., Janssen, R., & Fitzsimmons, K. (2020) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00173-z · Cited by 24
Factors affecting the global distribution ofHydrilla verticillata(L. fil.) Royle: A review
Patrick, A., & Florentine, S. K. (2021) · Weed Research · doi:10.1111/wre.12478 · Cited by 19
Liolophura species discrimination with geographical distribution patterns and their divergence and expansion history on the northwestern Pacific coast
Choi, E. H., Yeo, M. Y., Kim, G., Park, B., Shin, C. R., Baek, S. Y., & Hwang, U. W. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-96823-5 · Cited by 19
Modeling the effects of global cooling and the Tethyan Seaway closure on North African and South Asian climates during the Middle Miocene Climate Transition
Zhang, J., Hu, Y.-Y., Zhu, C., Flögel, S., Fang, X., & Sun, J.-M. (2023) · Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2023.111541 · Cited by 20
Trait‐based approaches as ecological time machines: Developing tools for reconstructing long‐term variation in ecosystems
Brown, K. A., Bunting, M. J., Carvalho, F., de Bello, F., Mander, L., Marcisz, K., Mottl, O., Reitalu, T., & Svenning, J. (2023) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2435.14415 · Cited by 19
Decoupling speciation and extinction reveals both abiotic and biotic drivers shaped 250 million years of diversity in crocodile-line archosaurs
Payne, A. R. D., Mannion, P. D., Lloyd, G. T., & Davis, K. E. (2023) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-023-02244-0 · Cited by 20
Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world
de Winter, N. J., Tindall, J. C., Johnson, A. L. A., Goudsmit, B., Wichern, N., Kaskes, P., Claeys, P., Huygen, F., van Leeuwen, S. M., Metcalfe, B., et al. (2024) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 · Cited by 23
Paleoclimate data provide constraints on climate models' large-scale response to past CO2 changes
Lunt, D. J., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Brierley, C., Haywood, A. M., Inglis, G. N., Izumi, K., Kageyama, M., Kaufman, D. S., Mauritsen, T., McClymont, E. L., et al. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01531-3 · Cited by 19
Self-citation
Cenozoic climatic changes drive evolution and dispersal of coastal benthic foraminifera in the Southern Ocean
Majewski, W., Holzmann, M., GOODAY, A. J., Majda, A., Mamos, T., & Pawlowski, J. W. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-99155-6 · Cited by 19
Global vegetation zonation and terrestrial climate of the warm Early Eocene
Thompson, N., Salzmann, U., Hutchinson, D. K., Strother, S. L., Pound, M. J., Utescher, T., Brugger, J., Hickler, T., Hocking, E. P., & Lunt, D. J. (2024) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.105036 · Cited by 18
Self-citation
Paleobiological Traits That Determined Scleractinian Coral Survival and Proliferation During the Late Paleocene and Early Eocene Hyperthermals
Weiss, A., & Martindale, R. C. (2019) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2018pa003398 · Cited by 18
A winner or a loser in climate change? Modelling the past, current, and future potential distributions of a rare charophyte species
Brzozowski, M., Pełechaty, M., & Bogawski, P. (2022) · Global Ecology and Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02038 · Cited by 18
Impact of Mountains in Southern China on the Eocene Climates of East Asia
Zhang, Z., Zhang, Z., He, Z., Tan, N., Guo, Z., Zhu, J., Steinig, S., Yannick Donnadieu, A., Ladant, J., Chan, W., et al. (2022) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2022jd036510 · Cited by 18
Environmental Characteristics of High Ice-Content Permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
Fan, X., Wang, Y., Niu, F., Li, W., Wu, X., Ding, Z., Pang, W., & Lin, Z. (2023) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs15184496 · Cited by 18
Paleorecords Reveal Biological Mechanisms Crucial for Reliable Species Range Shift Projections Amid Rapid Climate Change
der Meersch, V. V., Armstrong, E., Mouillot, F., Duputié, A., Davi, H., Saltré, F., & Chuine, I. (2025) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.70080 · Cited by 22
Phylogenetics, historical biogeography and molecular species delimitation of Chanohirata ( Hemiptera : Cicadellidae : Deltocephalinae : Penthimiini )
Wang, D., Dietrich, C. H., & Zhang, Y. (2023) · Systematic Entomology · doi:10.1111/syen.12612 · Cited by 17
Conservation palaeobiology and the shape of things to come
Dietl, G. P. (2019) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0294 · Cited by 17
Large shift of the Pacific Walker Circulation across the Cenozoic
Yan, Q. Y., Korty, R. L., Zhang, Z., Brierley, C., Li, X., & Wang, H. (2020) · National Science Review · doi:10.1093/nsr/nwaa101 · Cited by 17
Part 1: Anthropocene Series/Epoch: stratigraphic context and justification of rank The Anthropocene Epoch and Crawfordian Age: proposals by the Anthropocene Working GroupPreprint
Waters, C. N., Turner, S. D., An, Z., Barnosky, A. D., Cearreta, A., Cundy, A. B., Fairchild, I. J., Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, B., Gałuszka, A., Grinevald, J., et al. (2024) · doi:10.31223/x5mq3c · Cited by 20
Multi-variate factorisation of numerical simulations
Lunt, D. J., Chandan, D., Dowsett, H. J., Haywood, A. M., Lunt, G. M., Rougier, J., Salzmann, U., Schmidt, G. A., & Valdes, P. J. (2021) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021 · Cited by 16
Self-citation
Soil Carbon Loss and Weak Fire Feedbacks During Pliocene C 4 Grassland Expansion in Australia
Karp, A. T., Andrae, J. W., McInerney, F. A., Polissar, P. J., & Freeman, K. H. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl090964 · Cited by 16
WOOD JAMS OR BEAVER DAMS? PLIOCENE LIFE, SEDIMENT AND LANDSCAPE INTERACTIONS IN THE CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC
Davies, N. S., Gosse, J. C., Rouillard, A., Rybczynski, N., MENG, J., Reyes, A. V., & KIGUKTAK, J. (2022) · Palaios · doi:10.2110/palo.2021.065 · Cited by 16
A Revised Estimate of Early Pliocene Global Mean Sea Level Using Geodynamic Models of the Patagonian Slab Window
Hollyday, A., Austermann, J., Lloyd, A., Hoggard, M. J., Richards, F. D., & Rovere, A. (2023) · Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems · doi:10.1029/2022gc010648 · Cited by 16
Linking primatology and archaeology: The transversality of stone percussive behaviors
Harmand, S., & Arroyo, A. (2023) · Journal of Human Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.jhevol.2023.103398 · Cited by 16
Limited exchange between the deep Pacific and Atlantic oceans during the warm mid-Pliocene and Marine Isotope Stage M2 “glaciation”
Braaten, A. H., Jakob, K. A., Ho, S. L., Friedrich, O., Galaasen, E. V., Schepper, S. D., Wilson, P. A., & Meckler, A. N. (2023) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-19-2109-2023 · Cited by 16
Preventing extinction in an age of species migration and planetary change
Lundgren, E. J., Wallach, A. D., Svenning, J., Schlaepfer, M. A., Andersson, A. A., & Ramp, D. (2024) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/cobi.14270 · Cited by 20
Tropical Warming and Intensification of the West African Monsoon During the Miocene Climatic Optimum
Wubben, E., Spiering, B., Veenstra, T. J. T., Bos, R., Wang, Z., van Dijk, J., Raffi, I., Witkowski, J., Hilgen, F. J., Peterse, F., et al. (2024) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2023pa004767 · Cited by 20
Seasonally Resolved Proxy Data From the Antarctic Peninsula Support a Heterogeneous Middle Eocene Southern Ocean
Judd, E. J., Ivany, L. C., DeConto, R. M., Halberstadt, A. R. W., Miklus, N. M., Junium, C. K., & Uveges, B. T. I. (2019) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2019pa003581 · Cited by 19
In‐situ responses of temperate‐zone bats to climate change
Kerth, G., & Wolf, J. M. (2025) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.15317 · Cited by 15
Caught in a bottleneck: Habitat loss for woolly mammoths in central North America and the ice‐free corridor during the last deglaciation
Wang, Y., Widga, C., Graham, R. W., McGuire, J. L., Porter, W. P., Wårlind, D., & Williams, J. W. (2020) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.13238 · Cited by 16
Self-citation
Hydroclimate dynamics during the Plio-Pleistocene transition in the northwest Pacific realm
Vaucher, R., Zeeden, C., Hsieh, A. I., Kaboth‐Bahr, S., Lin, A. T., Horng, C., & Dashtgard, S. E. (2023) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104088 · Cited by 15
Long‐Term Variability in Pliocene North Pacific Ocean Export Production and Its Implications for Ocean Circulation in a Warmer World
Abell, J. T., & Winckler, G. (2023) · AGU Advances · doi:10.1029/2022av000853 · Cited by 15
The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2
Ren, X., Lunt, D. J., Hendy, E., von der Heydt, A. S., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Williams, C. J. R., Stepanek, C., Guo, C., Chandan, D., et al. (2023) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023 · Cited by 15
Self-citation
Genomic responses to climate: Understanding local adaptation in the Andean tree species Nothofagus pumilio and implications for a changing world
Sekely, J. T., Marchelli, P., Arana, M. V., Dauphin, B., Mattera, M. G., Pastorino, M. J. M., Scotti, I., Soliani, C., Heer, K., & Opgenoorth, L. (2024) · Plants People Planet · doi:10.1002/ppp3.10504 · Cited by 15
Evaluating the climatic state of Indian Summer Monsoon during the mid-Pliocene period using CMIP6 model simulations
Dahiya, K., Chilukoti, N., & Attada, R. (2024) · Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans · doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101455 · Cited by 15
Interplay between climate and carbon cycle feedbacks could substantially enhance future warming
Kaufhold, C., Willeit, M., Talento, S., Ganopolski, A., & Rockström, J. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adb6be · Cited by 19
A standardized database of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) sea-level indicators in Southeast Asia
Maxwell, K. V., Westphal, H., & Rovere, A. (2021) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-13-4313-2021 · Cited by 15
Spatial Distribution of CO2, CH4, and N2O in the Great Barrier Reef Revealed Through High Resolution Sampling and Isotopic Analysis
Reading, M. J., Maher, D. T., dos Santos, I. R., Jeffrey, L. C., Cyronak, T. J., McMahon, A., & Tait, D. R. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2021gl092534 · Cited by 14
Key traits of living fossil Ginkgo biloba are highly variable but not influenced by climate – Implications for palaeo-pCO2 reconstructions and climate sensitivity
Steinthorsdottir, M., Jardine, P. E., Lomax, B. H., & Sallstedt, T. (2022) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103786 · Cited by 14
Can the planet be saved in Time ? On the temporalities of socionature, the clock and the limits debate
Kolinjivadi, V., Vela-Almeida, D., & Martineau, J. (2019) · Environment and Planning E Nature and Space · doi:10.1177/2514848619891874 · Cited by 15
Dynamic management needs for long‐lived, sporadically recruiting plant species in human‐dominated landscapes
Schweiger, A., Irl, S. D. H., Svenning, J., & Higgins, S. I. (2020) · Plants People Planet · doi:10.1002/ppp3.10096 · Cited by 15
Would Adding the Anthropocene to the Geologic Time Scale Matter?
McCarthy, F. M. G., Head, M. J., Waters, C. N., & Zalasiewicz, J. (2025) · AGU Advances · doi:10.1029/2024av001430 · Cited by 14
Shedding light on taxonomic chaos: Diversity and distribution of South Asian skipper frogs (Anura, Dicroglossidae,Euphlyctis)
Dufresnes, C., Mahony, S., Prasad, V. K., Kamei, R. G., Masroor, R., Khan, M. A., Al-Johany, A. M. H., Gautam, K. B., Gupta, S. K., Borkin, L. J., et al. (2022) · Systematics and Biodiversity · doi:10.1080/14772000.2022.2102686 · Cited by 14
Geogenomics of montane palms points to Miocene–Pliocene Andean segmentation related to strike‐slip tectonics
Sanín, M. J., Mejía-Franco, F. G., Paris, M., Valencia‐Montoya, W. A., Salamin, N., Kessler, M. R., Olivares, I., Jaramillo, J. S., & Cardona, A. (2022) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/jbi.14327 · Cited by 14
Deoxygenation and organic carbon sequestration in the Tethyan realm associated with the middle Eocene climatic optimum
Cramwinckel, M. J., van der Ploeg, R., van Helmond, N. A. G. M., Waarlo, N., Agnini, C., Bijl, P. K., van der Boon, A., Brinkhuis, H., Frieling, J., Krijgsman, W., et al. (2022) · Geological Society of America Bulletin · doi:10.1130/b36280.1 · Cited by 14
Upper-ocean temperature characteristics in the subantarctic southeastern Pacific based on biomarker reconstructions
Hagemann, J. R., Lembke‐Jene, L., Lamy, F., Vorrath, M.-E., Kaiser, J., Müller, J., Arz, H. W., Hefter, J., Jaeschke, A., Ruggieri, N., et al. (2023) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-19-1825-2023 · Cited by 14
Influences of dietary niche expansion and Pliocene environmental changes on the origins of stone tool making
Quinn, R. L., Lewis, J., Brugal, J., Lepre, C. J., Trifonov, A., & Harmand, S. (2020) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2020.110074 · Cited by 14
Reconstruction of oceanographic and environmental conditions in the eastern Mediterranean (Kottafi Hill section, Cyprus Island) during the middle Miocene Climate Transition
Athanasiou, M., Triantaphyllou, M., Dimiza, M. D., Gogou, A., Panagiotopoulos, I. P., Arabas, A., Skampa, E., Kouli, K., Hatzaki, M., & Tsiolakis, E. (2021) · Revue de Micropaléontologie · doi:10.1016/j.revmic.2020.100480 · Cited by 13
The Euscaphis japonica genome and the evolution of malvids
Sun, W., Li, Z., Xiang, S., Ni, L., Zhang, D., Chen, D., Qiu, M., Zhang, Q., Xiao, L., Din, L., et al. (2021) · The Plant Journal · doi:10.1111/tpj.15518 · Cited by 13
Pollen R-values in arid central Asia for quantitative palaeo-vegetation reconstruction
Wang, Q., Li, J., Lu, K., Xie, G., Qin, F., Ferguson, D. K., Wang, G., Yao, Y., & Wang, Y. (2022) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2022.110993 · Cited by 13
North American Hydroclimate During Past Warm States: A Proxy Compilation‐Model Comparison for the Last Interglacial and the Mid‐Holocene
de Wet, C. B., Ibarra, D. E., Belanger, B. K., & Oster, J. L. (2023) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2022pa004528 · Cited by 13
DASH: a MATLAB toolbox for paleoclimate data assimilation
King, J. M., Tierney, J. E., Osman, M., Judd, E. J., & Anchukaitis, K. J. (2023) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-16-5653-2023 · Cited by 14
Using Paleoclimate Analogues to Inform Climate Projections
Watkins, A. (2023) · Perspectives on Science · doi:10.1162/posc_a_00622 · Cited by 12
Highly stratified mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean in PlioMIP2
Weiffenbach, J. E., Dijkstra, H. A., von der Heydt, A. S., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Chan, W., Chandan, D., Feng, R., Haywood, A. M., Hunter, S. J., Li, X., et al. (2024) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024 · Cited by 13
Self-citation
Dry hydroclimates in the late Palaeocene-early Eocene hothouse world
Piedrahita, V. A., Roberts, A. P., Rohling, E. J., Heslop, D., Zhao, X., Galeotti, S., Florindo, F., Grant, K., Hu, P., & Li, J. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-51430-6 · Cited by 13
Geologically constrained 2-million-year-long simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat and expansion through the Pliocene
Halberstadt, A. R. W., Gasson, E., Pollard, D., Marschalek, J., & DeConto, R. M. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-51205-z · Cited by 13
Emergence of a climate oscillation in the Arctic Ocean due to global warming
Kim, S., & An, S. (2024) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02171-3 · Cited by 13
Timing Is Everything
Westerhold, T., Agnini, C., Anagnostou, E., Hilgen, F. J., Hönisch, B., Meckler, A. N., Pälike, H., Wade, B. S., Sosdian, S., & Kasbohm, J. J. (2024) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2024pa004932 · Cited by 18
Modelling the mid-Pliocene warm period using HadGEM2
Tindall, J. C., & Haywood, A. M. (2019) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103110 · Cited by 13
Self-citation
Climate change through Earth history
Zalasiewicz, J., & Williams, M. (2021) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-821575-3.00003-7 · Cited by 19
Elevation-dependent temperature response in early Eocene using paleoclimate model experiment
Kad, P., Blau, M. T., Ha, K., & Zhu, J. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac9c74 · Cited by 13
Survival of the Qaidam mega-lake system under mid-Pliocene climates and its restoration under future climates
Scherer, D. (2020) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-24-3835-2020 · Cited by 13
Enhanced Late Miocene Chemical Weathering and Altered Precipitation Patterns in the Watersheds of the Bay of Bengal Recorded by Detrital Clay Radiogenic Isotopes
Bretschneider, L., Hathorne, E. C., Bolton, C. T., Gebregiorgis, D., Giosan, L., Gray, E., Huang, H., Holbourn, A., Kuhnt, W., & Frank, M. (2021) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2021pa004252 · Cited by 13
Symmetric and Antisymmetric Components of Polar-Amplified Warming
Hill, S. A., Burls, N., Fedorov, A. V., & Merlis, T. M. (2022) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0972.1 · Cited by 12
Coralline Algae at the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum in the Southern Pyrenees (N Spain)
Aguirre, J., Baceta, J. I., & Braga, J. C. (2022) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.899877 · Cited by 12
Severe Drought Conditions in Northern East Asia During the Early Pliocene Caused by Weakened Pacific Meridional Temperature Gradient
Zheng, Y., Fedorov, A. V., Burls, N., Zhang, R., Brierley, C., Fang, Z., Yu, X., Xian, F., & Lu, H. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl098813 · Cited by 12
Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss
Richards, F. D., Coulson, S., Hoggard, M. J., Austermann, J., Dyer, B. C., & Mitrovica, J. X. (2023) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adg3035 · Cited by 12
Perspectives on climate change and infectious disease outbreaks: is the evidence there?
Charnley, G. E. C., & Kelman, I. (2024) · npj Climate Action · doi:10.1038/s44168-024-00115-3 · Cited by 12
Climate variability, heat distribution, and polar amplification in the warm unipolar “icehouse” of the Oligocene
Jenny, D., Reichgelt, T., O’Brien, C. L., Liu, X., Bijl, P. K., Huber, M. S., & Sluijs, A. (2024) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-20-1627-2024 · Cited by 12
Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets. III. Fractional Habitability from a Water Cycle Perspective
C, A. D. D. G., Way, M. J., Kiang, N. Y.-L., Aleinov, I., Puma, M. J., & Cook, B. I. (2019) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ab57fd · Cited by 12
Changes in Sahel summer rainfall in a global warming climate: contrasting the mid-Pliocene and future regional hydrological cycles
Han, Z., Li, G., & Zhang, Q. (2022) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06630-5 · Cited by 12
Astronomical Forcing on Loess Deposition in the Junggar Basin Since the Late Pliocene
Wang, Z., Zhang, T., Licht, A., Cao, M., & Zhang, R. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl102584 · Cited by 12
On the reconciliation of biostratigraphy and strontium isotope stratigraphy of three southern Californian Plio-Pleistocene formations
Buczek, A. J., Hendy, A., Hopkins, M. J., & Sessa, J. A. (2020) · Geological Society of America Bulletin · doi:10.1130/b35488.1 · Cited by 12
Persistent eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean upwelling since the warm Pliocene
Rafter, P. A., Farmer, J. R., Martínez‐García, A., Ravelo, A. C., Karnauskas, K. B., Batista, F. C., Bernasconi, S. M., Ren, H., Auderset, A., Haug, G. H., et al. (2025) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.ads8720 · Cited by 12
Westerly jet waviness modulates mid-latitude hydroclimate variability
Cheng, L., Zhang, J., Wu, Y., Cheng, J., Yi, L., Zhang, Z., & Long, H. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-65904-8 · Cited by 11
A positive relationship between functional redundancy and temperature in Cenozoic marine ecosystems
Womack, T. M., Crampton, J. S., Hannah, M., & Collins, K. S. (2021) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abf8732 · Cited by 12
Decadal–centennial-scale solar-linked climate variations and millennial-scale internal oscillations during the Early Cretaceous
Hasegawa, H., Katsuta, N., Muraki, Y., Heimhofer, U., Ichinnorov, N., Asahi, H., Ando, H., Yamamoto, K., Murayama, M., Ohta, T., et al. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-25815-w · Cited by 10
Evolution of Oceanography of the Central Northwest Pacific Over the Past 10 Million Years With Focus on Late Miocene Global Cooling
Matsuzaki, K. M. (2023) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2023pa004789 · Cited by 11
Predicting the distribution of plant species from southern South America: are the hotspots of genetic diversity threatened by climate change?
Soliani, C., Ceccarelli, V., Lantschner, V., Thomas, E., & Marchelli, P. (2024) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-023-02770-0 · Cited by 11
Revisiting the physical processes controlling the tropical atmospheric circulation changes during the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period
Zhang, K., Sun, Y., Zhang, Z., Stepanek, C., Feng, R., Hill, D. J., Lohmann, G., Dolan, A. M., Haywood, A. M., Abe‐Ouchi, A., et al. (2024) · Quaternary International · doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2024.01.001 · Cited by 11
Self-citation
Role of land-ocean interactions in stepwise Northern Hemisphere Glaciation
Zhong, Y., Tan, N., Abell, J. T., Sun, C., Kaboth‐Bahr, S., Ford, H. L., Herbert, T. D., Pullen, A., Horikawa, K., Yu, J., et al. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-51127-w · Cited by 11
Environmental investment, climate risk and firm climate resilience: evidence from China
Gao, X., Dong, S., & Liu, C. (2024) · Environment Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-024-05518-0 · Cited by 11
Permafrost Thawing and Estimates of Vulnerable Carbon in the Northern High Latitude
Nadeem, I., Nakićenović, N., Yaqub, A., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Bala, G., Tharammal, T., & Zimm, C. (2024) · Earth Systems and Environment · doi:10.1007/s41748-024-00491-0 · Cited by 11
Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation
Friedlingstein, P., Artaxo, P. E., Gallego-Sala, A. V., Jia, G., JONES, C. D., Kawamiya, M., Loisel, J., Loutre, M., Rehfeld, K., Rovere, A., et al. (2024) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208 · Cited by 15
An assessment of the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future
Burton, L., Oldeman, A., Haywood, A. M., Tindall, J. C., Dolan, A. M., Hill, D. J., von der Heydt, A. S., & Baatsen, M. (2025) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104860 · Cited by 11
Self-citation

Authors: Burke, K. D., Williams, J. W., Chandler, M. A., Haywood, A. M., Lunt, D. J., & Otto-Bliesner, B. L.
Affiliations: University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
University of Leeds (GB)
University of Bristol (GB)
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305
Corresponding author: Burke, K. D.
ORCID: Burke, K. D.
Williams, J. W.
Chandler, M. A.
Haywood, A. M.
Lunt, D. J.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L.
Venue: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Published: 2018-12-10
Volume: 115
Issue: 52
Pages: 13288-13293
ISSN: 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1809600115
PMC: PMC6310841
OpenAlex: W2904881360
Cited by: 624
References: 61
Citations by year: 2026: 62 · 2025: 83 · 2024: 115 · 2023: 114 · 2022: 92 · 2021: 79 · 2020: 56 · 2019: 22
FWCI: 19.12
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: www.pnas.org/site/aboutpnas/licenses.xhtml (vor, 182 d)
Locations: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
Explore Bristol Research (submittedVersion, other-oa)
NASA STI Repository (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation (1144752, DEB-1353896)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: Pliocene climate, Eocene climate, climate analogs, climate change projections, RCP8.5, RCP4.5, mid-Pliocene, Last Interglacial, mid-Holocene, climate change adaptation, Earth system models
MeSH terms: Climate, Models, Theoretical, Paleontology, Temperature, Ecosystem

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates

Abstract

Overview

Integrity signals

Verification

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Citations

Cites

Cited by

Related

Metadata

Record

About these checks