The DOI matches its Crossref record; 40 of the 40 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
ENSO and cholera: A nonstationary link related to climate change?
Open accessAbstract
We present here quantitative evidence for an increased role of interannual climate variability on the temporal dynamics of an infectious disease. The evidence is based on time-series analyses of the relationship between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera prevalence in Bangladesh (formerly Bengal) during two different time periods. A strong and consistent signature of ENSO is apparent in the last two decades (1980–2001), while it is weaker and eventually uncorrelated during the first parts of the last century (1893–1920 and 1920–1940, respectively). Concomitant with these changes, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) undergoes shifts in its frequency spectrum. These changes include an intensification of the approximately 4-yr cycle during the recent interval as a response to the well documented Pacific basin regime shift of 1976. This change in remote ENSO modulation alone can only partially serve to substantiate the differences observed in cholera. Regional or basin-wide changes possibly linked to global warming must be invoked that seem to facilitate ENSO transmission. For the recent cholera series and during specific time intervals corresponding to local maxima in ENSO, this climate phenomenon accounts for over 70% of disease variance. This strong association is discontinuous in time and can only be captured with a technique designed to isolate transient couplings.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Some studies from South Asian countries have identified increased rates of infectious diseases such as diarrhea [64][65][66][67] and cholera [68,69] with an increase in temperature.”
From Heatwaves in South Asia: Characterization, Consequences on Human Health, and Adaptation Strategies (2022) · cites this paper as [69]
Citations
Cites
Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis
Houghton, J., Ding, Y., Griggs, D., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. V. D., Dai, X., Maskell, K., & Johnson, C. (2001) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20033020 · Cited by 14,162
Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction
Webster, P. J., Magaña, V. O., Palmer, T. N., Shukla, J., Tomas, R. A., Yanai, M., & Yasunari, T. (1998) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/97jc02719 · Cited by 2,951
Extracting qualitative dynamics from experimental data
Broomhead, D. S., & King, G. P. (1986) · Physica D Nonlinear Phenomena · doi:10.1016/0167-2789(86)90031-x · Cited by 2,289
On the Weakening Relationship Between the Indian Monsoon and ENSO
Kumar, K., Rajagopalan, B., & Cane, M. A. (1999) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.284.5423.2156 · Cited by 1,618
Singular-spectrum analysis: A toolkit for short, noisy chaotic signals
Vautard, R., Yiou, P., & Ghil, M. (1992) · Physica D Nonlinear Phenomena · doi:10.1016/0167-2789(92)90103-t · Cited by 1,462
(1998) · Cited by 1,332
Global Climate and Infectious Disease: The Cholera Paradigm
Colwell, R. R. (1996) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.274.5295.2025 · Cited by 1,296
Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming
Timmermann, A., Oberhuber, J., Bacher, A., Esch, M., Latif, M., & Roeckner, E. (1999) · Nature · doi:10.1038/19505 · Cited by 1,279
Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics, with applications to paleoclimatic time series
Vautard, R., & Ghil, M. (1989) · Physica D Nonlinear Phenomena · doi:10.1016/0167-2789(89)90077-8 · Cited by 1,235
The 1990–1995 El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on Record
Trenberth, K. E., & Hoar, T. J. (1996) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/95gl03602 · Cited by 749
El Niño occurrences over the past four and a half centuries
Quinn, W. H., Neal, V. T., & Santiago Erik Antúnez de Mayolo, R. (1987) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/jc092ic13p14449 · Cited by 665
Childers, D. G. (1978) · Cited by 541
Cholera Dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Pascual, M., Rodó, X., Ellner, S. P., Colwell, R. R., & Bouma, M. J. (2000) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.289.5485.1766 · Cited by 501
Self-citationPotential Impact of Global Climate Change on Malaria Risk
Martens, P., Niessen, L. W., Rotmans, J., Jetten, T. H., & McMichael, A. J. (1995) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp.95103458 · Cited by 431
Global variations in droughts and wet spells: 1900–1995
Dai, A., Trenberth, K. E., & Karl, T. R. (1998) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/98gl52511 · Cited by 421
El Niño-like climate change in a model with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations
Meehl, G. A., & Washington, W. M. (1996) · Nature · doi:10.1038/382056a0 · Cited by 386
Urban, F. E., Cole, J. E., & Overpeck, J. T. (2000) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35039597 · Cited by 369
On the Evolution of the Southern Oscillation
Trenberth, K. E., & Shea, D. J. (1987) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115 · Cited by 316
Potential Changes in the Distribution of Dengue Transmission under Climate Warming
Jetten, T. H., & Focks, D. A. (1997) · American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · doi:10.4269/ajtmh.1997.57.285 · Cited by 305
Trends in extreme rainfall indices for an updated high quality data set for Australia, 1910-1998
Haylock, M. R., & Nicholls, N. (2000) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/1097-0088(20001115)20:13 · Cited by 304
Evidence for Strengthening of the Tropical General Circulation in the 1990s
Chen, J., Carlson, B. E., & Genio, A. D. D. (2002) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1065835 · Cited by 257
Software expedites singular‐spectrum analysis of noisy time series
Dettinger, M. D., Ghil, M., Strong, C. M., Weibel, W., & Yiou, P. (1995) · Eos · doi:10.1029/eo076i002p00012 · Cited by 248
Effects of temperature and salinity on Vibrio cholerae growth
Singleton, F. L., Attwell, R. W., Jangi, S., & Colwell, R. R. (1982) · Applied and Environmental Microbiology · doi:10.1128/aem.44.5.1047-1058.1982 · Cited by 232
An analysis of New Zealand synoptic types and their use in defining weather regimes
Kidson, J. W. (2000) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(20000315)20:3 · Cited by 216
Climate change and vector-borne diseases
Martens, P., Jetten, T. H., Rotmans, J., & Niessen, L. W. (1995) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/0959-3780(95)00051-o · Cited by 191
Simulation of Recent Global Temperature Trends
Graham, N. E. (1995) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.267.5198.666 · Cited by 159
Huq, S. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.294.5547.1617 · Cited by 144
Bouma, M. J., & Pascual, M. (2001) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-017-3284-0_13 · Cited by 71
Self-citationClimate Change and Human Health
Redaktion, T. (1996) · TATuP Zeitschrift für Technikfolgenabschätzung in Theorie und Praxis · doi:10.14512/tatup.5.3.22 · Cited by 68
Yiou, P., Ghil, M., Jouzel, J., Paillard, D., & Vautard, R. (1994) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/bf00207933 · Cited by 64
Bouma, M. J., & Pascual, M. (2001) · Hydrobiologia · doi:10.1023/a:1013165215074 · Cited by 61
Self-citationInfectious Diseases in Latin America and the Caribbean: Are They Really Emerging and Increasing?
Brandling-Bennett, A. D., & Pinheiro, F. (1996) · Emerging infectious diseases · doi:10.3201/eid0201.960109 · Cited by 48
Hartmann, D. L. (2002) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1068447 · Cited by 29
Rodó, X. (2001) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s003820100171 · Cited by 22
Self-citationF, X. R. X. (2002) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0228-x · Cited by 21
Uncertain impact of global warming on disease
McCarthy, M. A. (2001) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(00)04388-9 · Cited by 8
Carretero (1998) · doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079
Latif, M. (1999) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012
Liu (1991) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Regional Health Report 1996 (W.H.O., Geneva, 1996).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Impact of regional climate change on human health
Patz, J. A., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Holloway, T., & Foley, J. A. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04188 · Cited by 3,103
Climate change and human health: present and future risks
McMichael, A. J., Woodruff, R. E., & Hales, S. (2006) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(06)68079-3 · Cited by 2,585
Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems
Sugihara, G., May, R. M., Ye, H., Hsieh, C., Deyle, E. R., Fogarty, M. J., & Munch, S. B. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1227079 · Cited by 2,550
Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming
Alan Pounds, J., Bustamante, M. R., Coloma, L. A., Consuegra, J. A., Fogden, M. P. L., Foster, P. N., La Marca, E., Masters, K. L., Merino-Viteri, A., Puschendorf, R., et al. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04246 · Cited by 1,960
Unhealthy Landscapes: Policy Recommendations on Land Use Change and Infectious Disease Emergence
Patz, J. A., Daszak, P., Tabor, G. M., Aguirre, A. A., Pearl, M., Epstein, J., Wolfe, N. D., Kilpatrick, A. M., Foufopoulos, J., Molyneux, D., et al. (2004) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp.6877 · Cited by 975
Metadata
- Authors
- Rodó, X., Pascual, M., Fuchs, G., & Faruque, A. S. G.
- Affiliations
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research (BD)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2002-09-12
- Volume
- 99
- Issue
- 20
- Pages
- 12901-12906
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC130557
- OpenAlex
- W1995628326
- Cited by
- 343
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 32 · 2016: 14 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 14
- FWCI
- 14.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Microbiology › Vibrio bacteria research studies
- Keywords
- ENSO, cholera, interannual climate variability, climate-disease association, Southern Oscillation Index, climate change and infectious diseases, Bangladesh
- MeSH terms
- Cholera, Climate, Communicable Diseases, Disease Outbreaks, Environment, Environmental Health, Humans, Temperature, Time Factors, Models, Statistical
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
