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A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation
Open accessAbstract
Mortality estimates for many populations are derived using model life tables, which describe typical age patterns of human mortality. We propose a new system of model life tables as a means of improving the quality and transparency of such estimates. A flexible two-dimensional model was fitted to a collection of life tables from the Human Mortality Database. The model can be used to estimate full life tables given one or two pieces of information: child mortality only, or child and adult mortality. Using life tables from a variety of sources, we have compared the performance of new and old methods. The new model outperforms the Coale-Demeny and UN model life tables. Estimation errors are similar to those produced by the modified Brass logit procedure. The proposed model is better suited to the practical needs of mortality estimation, since both input parameters are continuous yet the second one is optional.
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“Our adult mortality estimates more closely follow the bulk of the data from sibling-survival histories, and our age-specific mortality estimates rely on a database of 43 758 empirical life tables as opposed to the Coale-Demeny north model life table used by WPP 2022, which has been shown to underperform compared with other modern model life table methods.73, 74”
From Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (2024) · cites this paper as [74]
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Perin, J., Chu, Y., Villaviciencio, F., Schumacher, A. E., McCormick, T. H., Guillot, M., & Liu, L. (2022) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.18132922
Perin, J., Chu, Y., Villaviciencio, F., Schumacher, A. E., McCormick, T. H., Guillot, M., & Liu, L. (2022) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.18132925
Perin, J., Chu, Y., Villaviciencio, F., Schumacher, A. E., McCormick, T. H., Guillot, M., & Liu, L. (2022) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.18132931
Perin, J., Chu, Y., Villaviciencio, F., Schumacher, A. E., McCormick, T. H., Guillot, M., & Liu, L. (2022) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.18132934
Ding, J., Chen, S., Deng, Y., Zhou, S., Zeng, Z., & Hu, S. (2026) · Preventive Medicine Reports · doi:10.1016/j.pmedr.2026.103436
Nepalese life expectancy and cause-specific life years lost by subnational populationsPreprint
Acharya, J., & Canudas‐Romo, V. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-9583421/v1
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Assessment of Model Life Table Methods for Estimating Life Expectancy at Birth in India
Yadav, P. K., & Vasishtha, G. (2026) · Boletim da Sociedade Paranaense de Matemática · doi:10.5269/bspm.81786
Metadata
- Authors
- Wilmoth, J., Zureick, S., Canudas-Romo, V., Inoue, M., & Sawyer, C.
- Affiliations
- University of California System (US)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
- World Health Organization (CH)
- United Nations (US)
- Corresponding author
- Wilmoth, John
- Venue
- Population Studies
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2011-12-13
- Volume
- 66
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-28
- ISSN
- 0032-4728 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-4747
- PMC
- PMC4046865
- OpenAlex
- W2140485479
- Cited by
- 110
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 13.95
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Population Studies (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- University of Southern Denmark Research Portal (University of Southern Denmark) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (R01AG011552, P30AG012839)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24HD042854)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Social Sciences › Geography, Planning and Development › demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Keywords
- model life tables, indirect mortality estimation, child mortality, adult mortality, Human Mortality Database
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Probability, Statistics as Topic, Models, Statistical, Life Tables, Logistic Models, Databases, Factual, Risk Assessment, Young Adult
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