Testing and Modeling Threshold Autoregressive Processes

Abstract

The threshold autoregressive model is one of the nonlinear time series models available in the literature. It was first proposed by Tong (1978) and discussed in detail by Tong and Lim (1980) and Tong (1983). The major features of this class of models are limit cycles, amplitude dependent frequencies, and jump phenomena. Much of the original motivation of the model is concerned with limit cycles of a cyclical time series, and indeed the model is capable of producing asymmetric limit cycles. The threshold autoregressive model, however, has not received much attention in application. This is due to (a) the lack of a suitable modeling procedure and (b) the inability to identify the threshold variable and estimate the threshold values. The primary goal of this article, therefore, is to suggest a simple yet widely applicable model-building procedure for threshold autoregressive models. Based on some predictive residuals, a simple statistic is proposed to test for threshold nonlinearity and specify the threshold variable. Some supplementary graphic devices are then used to identify the number and locations of the potential thresholds. Finally, these statistics are used to build a threshold model. The test statistic and its properties are derived by simple linear regression. Its performance in the finite-sample case is evaluated by simulation and real-world data analysis. The statistic performs well as compared with an alternative test available in the literature. Further applications of threshold autoregressive models are also suggested, including handling heterogeneous time series and modeling random processes with periodic variances whose periodicity is not fixed. The latter phenomenon is commonly encountered in practice, especially in econometrics and biological sciences.