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Forecasting high-speed rail ridership using a simultaneous modeling approach

Liu, Rongfang, Li, Andy·2012·Transportation Planning and Technology
DOI 10.1080/03081060.2012.701816
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Abstract

The newly launched, June 2009, US High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail Program has rekindled a renewed interest in forecasting high-speed rail (HSR) ridership. The first step to the concerted effort by the federal, state, rail, and other related agencies to develop a nationwide HSR network is the development of credible approaches to forecast the ridership. This article presents a nested logit/simultaneous choice model to improve the demand forecast in the context of intercity travel. In addition to incorporating the interrelationship between trip generation and mode choice decisions, the simultaneous model also provides a platform for the same utility function flowing between both the decision-making processes. Using American Travel Survey data, supplemented by various mode parameters, the proposed model improves the forecast accuracy and confirms the significant impact of travel costs on both mode choice and trip generation. Furthermore, the cross elasticity of mode choice and trip generation related to travel costs and other modal characteristics may shed some light on transportation policies in the area of intercity travel, especially in anticipation of HSR development.

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Metadata

Authors
Liu, R., & Li, A.
Affiliations
New Jersey Institute of Technology (US)
Corresponding author
Liu, Rongfang
ORCID
Liu, Rongfang
Venue
Transportation Planning and Technology
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Published
2012-07
Volume
35
Issue
5
Pages
577-590
ISSN
  • 0308-1060 (ISSN-L)
  • 1029-0354
DOI
10.1080/03081060.2012.701816
OpenAlex
W1967441180
Cited by
9
References
0
Citations by year
2025: 2 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 3 · 2019: 1 · 2017: 1 · 2014: 1
FWCI
0.84
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • Transportation Planning and Technology (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Transportation › Transportation Planning and Optimization
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Aviation Industry Analysis and Trends
  • Social Sciences › Transportation › Railways and European Transport Policy
Keywords
high-speed rail, ridership forecasting, intercity passenger rail, nested logit model, trip generation, mode choice, travel cost, cross elasticity

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Liu, R., & Li, A. (2012). Forecasting high-speed rail ridership using a simultaneous modeling approach. Transportation Planning and Technology. https://doi.org/10.1080/03081060.2012.701816