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Cited by 73Maritime Navigation and SafetyMarine and Coastal ResearchOccupational Health and Safety Research

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Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents–an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

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Heij, Christiaan, Knapp, Sabine·2018·Maritime Policy & Management
DOI 10.1080/03088839.2018.1440441
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Abstract

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.

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Metadata

Authors
Heij, C., & Knapp, S.
Affiliations
Erasmus University Rotterdam (NL)
Corresponding author
Heij, Christiaan
ORCID
Venue
Maritime Policy & Management
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Published
2018-02-26
Volume
45
Issue
5
Pages
604-621
ISSN
  • 0308-8839 (ISSN-L)
  • 1464-5254
DOI
10.1080/03088839.2018.1440441
OpenAlex
W2792334629
Cited by
73
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 6 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 7
FWCI
4.74
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
cc-by-nc-nd
Locations
  • Maritime Policy & Management (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Econometric Institute Research Papers (submittedVersion)
  • EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • RePub (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Econometric Institute Research Papers
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Ocean Engineering › Maritime Navigation and Safety
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Ocean Engineering › Marine and Coastal Research
  • Social Sciences › Safety Research › Occupational Health and Safety Research
Keywords
port state control, maritime safety inspection, maritime accidents, accident risk prediction, human factors, living and working conditions, fatigue, safety management, deficiency index, marine insurance

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