Flood susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence models in the Golastan Province, Iran

Abstract

Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters with socio-economic and environmental consequences. Thus, comprehensive flood management is essential to reduce the flood effects on human lives and livelihoods. The main goal of this study was to investigate the application of the frequency ratio (FR) and weights-of-evidence (WofE) models for flood susceptibility mapping in the Golestan Province, Iran. At first, a flood inventory map was prepared using Iranian Water Resources Department and extensive field surveys. In total, 144 flood locations were identified in the study area. Of these, 101 (70%) floods were randomly selected as training data and the remaining 43 (30%) cases were used for the validation purposes. In the next step, flood conditioning factors such as lithology, land-use, distance from rivers, soil texture, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI) and altitude were prepared from the spatial database. Subsequently, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn for produced flood susceptibility maps and the area under the curves (AUCs) was computed. The final results indicated that the FR (AUC = 76.47%) and WofE (AUC = 74.74%) models have almost similar and reasonable results. Therefore, these flood susceptibility maps can be useful for researchers and planner in flood mitigation strategies.