Backcasting — a framework for strategic planning

Abstract

Backcasting is a planning methodology that is particularly helpful when problems at hand are complex and when present trends are part of the problems. When applied in planning towards sustainability, backcasting can increase the likelihood of handling the ecologically complex issues in a systematic and coordinated way, and also to foresee certain changes, even from a self-beneficial point of view, of the market and increase the chances of a relatively strong economic performance. To that end, backcasting should be performed from a set of non-overlapping principles that are general enough to be helpful in the coordination of different sectors of society and in business, as well as to cover relevant aspects of sustainability. Such principles are helpful when developing reliable non-overlapping indicators for monitoring of the development when coordinating various measures from different sectors of the society or within individual firms with each other, and when handling trade-offs in a relevant way. Furthermore, the transition can benefit from being undertaken in a strategic step-by-step manner, by which such investments search for those that combine two qualities: (i) technical flexibility to serve as platforms for future investments in line with non-overlapping principles of sustainability, and (ii) good possibilities of giving relatively fast return on investment. This framework for planning is developed together with the Natural Step, a non-government organization, and in collaboration with a network of scientists and business. Examples are given from firms applying the framework.