The DOI matches its Crossref record.
The Interplay between Determinism and Stochasticity in Childhood Diseases
Abstract
An important issue in the history of ecology has been the study of the relative importance of deterministic forces and processes noise in shaping the dynamics of ecological populations. We address this question by exploring the temporal dynamics of two childhood infections, measles and whooping cough, in England and Wales. We demonstrate that epidemics of whooping cough are strongly influenced by stochasticity; fully deterministic approaches cannot achieve even a qualitative fit to the observed data. In contrast, measles dynamics are extremely well explained by a deterministic model. These differences are shown to be caused by their contrasting responses to dynamical noise due to different infectious periods.
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Citations
Cited by
Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology
Grassly, N. C., & Fraser, C. (2006) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2006.3604 · Cited by 574
New Strategies for the Elimination of Polio from India
Grassly, N. C., Fraser, C., Wenger, J., Deshpande, J. M., Sutter, R. W., Heymann, D. L., & Aylward, R. B. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1130388 · Cited by 271
Stochastic formulation of ecological models and their applications
Black, A. J., & McKane, A. J. (2012) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2012.01.014 · Cited by 255
Metadata
- Authors
- Rohani, P., Keeling, M. J., & Grenfell, B. T.
- Venue
- The American Naturalist
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2002-05
- Volume
- 159
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 469-481
- ISSN
- 0003-0147 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5323
- OpenAlex
- W2016767093
- Cited by
- 186
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 9.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The Interplay between Determinism and Stochasticity in Childhood Diseases. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1086/339467
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- Rohani, P., Keeling, M. J., & Grenfell, B. T. (2002). The Interplay between Determinism and Stochasticity in Childhood Diseases. The American Naturalist. https://doi.org/10.1086/339467
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