Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth
Abstract
We exploit the major international health improvements from the 1940s to estimate the effect of life expectancy on economic performance. We construct predicted mortality using preintervention mortality rates from various diseases and dates of global interventions. Predicted mortality has a large impact on changes in life expectancy starting in 1940 but no effect before 1940. Using predicted mortality as an instrument, we find that a 1 percent increase in life expectancy leads to a 1.7–2 percent increase in population. Life expectancy has a much smaller effect on total GDP, however. Consequently, there is no evidence that the large increase in life expectancy raised income per capita.
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Acemoglu and Johnson (2007) estimate the effect of life expectancy on growth and births using an IV (predicted mortality) that captures the dramatic reduction in mortality from infectious diseases in the 1940s and 1950s.
“Acemoglu and Johnson (2007) estimate the e/ect of life expectancy on growth and births using an IV ( predicted mortality ) that captures the dramatic reduction in the mortality from infectious diseases occurred in the world in the 1940s and 1950s”
From Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes (2019) · cites this paper as Acemoglu and Johnson (2007)
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- Authors
- Acemoglu, D., & Johnson, S.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- ORCID
- Johnson, Simon
- Venue
- Journal of Political Economy
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2007-12
- Volume
- 115
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 925-985
- ISSN
- 0022-3808 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-534X
- OpenAlex
- W2153897994
- Cited by
- 1,290
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 53 · 2025: 54 · 2024: 72 · 2023: 90 · 2022: 87 · 2021: 90 · 2020: 110 · 2019: 75 · 2018: 62 · 2017: 57 · 2016: 61 · 2015: 72 · 2014: 76 · 2013: 64 · 2012: 68
- FWCI
- 95.05
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Political Economy (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Global Health Care Issues
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
- Keywords
- life expectancy, economic growth, mortality, health improvement, population growth, per capita income, disease, global health interventions, mortality prediction
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