The DOI matches its Crossref record; 10 of the 10 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics
Open accessAbstract
For postwar U.S. data, this paper uses Bayesian methods to account for the four sources of uncertainty in a random coefficients vector autoregression for inflation, unemployment, and an interest rate. We use the model to assemble evidence about the evolution of measures of the persistence of inflation, prospective long-horizon forecasts (means) of inflation and unemployment, statistics for testing an approximation to the natural-unemployment-rate hypothesis, and a version of the Taylor rule. We relate these measures to stories that interpret the conquest of U.S. inflation under Volcker and Greenspan as reflecting how the monetary policy authority came to learn an approximate version of the natural-unemployment-rate hypothesis. We study Taylor's warning that defects in that approximation may cause the monetary authority to forget the natural-rate hypothesis as the persistence of inflation attenuates.
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Cites
Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans
Kydland, F. E., & Prescott, E. C. (1977) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/260580 · Cited by 7,905
A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model
Barro, R. J., & Gordon, D. B. (1983) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261167 · Cited by 2,207
Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time
Phelps, E. S. (1967) · Economica · doi:10.2307/2552025 · Cited by 1,654
Banerjee, A., Lumsdaine, R. L., & Stock, J. H. (1992) · Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · doi:10.2307/1391542 · Cited by 719
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices
Stock, J., & Watson, M. (2001) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w8180 · Cited by 478
Simple conditions for the convergence of the Gibbs sampler and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms
Roberts, G. O., & Smith, A. F. M. (1994) · Stochastic Processes and their Applications · doi:10.1016/0304-4149(94)90134-1 · Cited by 356
The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history
King, R. G., & Watson, M. W. (1994) · Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy · doi:10.1016/0167-2231(94)00018-2 · Cited by 333
Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches
Athanasios Orphanides, A. (2004) · Journal of money credit and banking · doi:10.1353/mcb.2004.0013 · Cited by 313
What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots: A Bayesian Perspective
Uhlig, H. (1994) · Econometric Theory · doi:10.1017/s0266466600008719 · Cited by 180
Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation
Hanson, M. S. (2006) · Journal of Economics and Business · doi:10.1016/j.jeconbus.2006.06.003 · Cited by 36
Cited by
Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections
Jordà, Ò. (2005) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/0002828053828518 · Cited by 4,677
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices
Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2003) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/002205103322436197 · Cited by 1,076
Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries
Perotti, R. (2002) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.358082 · Cited by 1,016
Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?
Boivin, J., & Giannoni, M. P. (2006) · Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest.88.3.445 · Cited by 769
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?
Stock, J., & Watson, M. (2002) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w9127 · Cited by 560
Metadata
- Authors
- Cogley, T., & Sargent, T. J.
- Venue
- NBER Macroeconomics Annual
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2001-01
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 331-373
- ISSN
- 0889-3365 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-2642
- OpenAlex
- W3123941876
- Cited by
- 872
- References
- 10
- FWCI
- 62.96
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
