Communication Technology and Protest

Abstract

Recent antiregime protests throughout the world have been publicized, and arguably facilitated, by social media and other communication technologies. I develop formal models that examine the implications of communication technology generating information about two distinct factors: (1) the level of dissatisfaction with the regime and (2) logistical information about when, where, and how potential protests will occur. Making grievances against the regime more public has an ambiguous effect on protest levels as citizens can learn that it is more or less popular than expected. Even when publicizing more complaints about the regime does increase average protest levels, some if not most of the observed correlation between antiregime content and protest is not causal. In contrast, providing information about logistics almost always lowers the effective cost of protest, leading to larger (and more cohesive) antiregime action. The models explain a wide range of empirical results linking communication technology, antiregime beliefs, protest, and censorship.