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Uncertainty Shocks and Balance Sheet Recessions

Di Tella, Sebastian·2017·Journal of Political Economy

Abstract

This paper investigates the origin and propagation of balance sheet recessions. I first show that in standard models driven by TFP shocks, the balance sheet channel disappears when agents can write contracts on the aggregate state of the economy. Optimal contracts sever the link between leverage and aggregate risk sharing, eliminating the concentration of aggregate risk that drives balance sheet recessions. I then show that uncertainty shocks can help explain this concentration of aggregate risk and drive balance sheet recessions, even with contracts on aggregate shocks. The mechanism is quantitatively important, and I explore implications for financial regulation.

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Metadata

Authors
Di Tella, S.
Venue
Journal of Political Economy
Published
2017-12
Volume
125
Issue
6
Pages
2038-2081
ISSN
  • 0022-3808 (ISSN-L)
  • 1537-534X
OpenAlex
W2744405877
Cited by
158
References
2
FWCI
24.90
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Uncertainty Shocks and Balance Sheet Recessions. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1086/694290
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Di Tella, S. (2017). Uncertainty Shocks and Balance Sheet Recessions. Journal of Political Economy. https://doi.org/10.1086/694290

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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.