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Disagreement about Inflation Expectations
Open accessAbstract
Analyzing 50 years of inflation expectations data from several sources, we document substantial disagreement among both consumers and professional economists about expected future inflation. This disagreement shows substantial variation over time, moving with inflation, the absolute value of the change in inflation, and relative price variability. We argue that a satisfactory model of economic dynamics must address these important business-cycle moments. Noting that most macroeconomic models do not endogenously generate disagreement, we show that a simple sticky-information model broadly matches many of these facts. Moreover, the sticky-information model is consistent with other observed departures of inflation expectations from full rationality, including autocorrelated forecast errors and insufficient sensitivity to recent macroeconomic news.
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Cited by
Large-Scale Asset Purchases by the Federal Reserve: Did They Work?
Gagnon, J. E., Raskin, M., Remache, J., & Sack, B. P. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1576596 · Cited by 304
Narratives About the Macroeconomy
Andre, P., Haaland, I., Roth, C., & Wohlfart, J. (2023) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4506321 · Cited by 100
Narratives about the Macroeconomy
Andre, P., Haaland, I., Roth, C., Wiederholt, M., & Wohlfart, J. (2026) · Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdag014 · Cited by 12
Metadata
- Authors
- Mankiw, N. G., Reis, R., & Wolfers, J.
- Venue
- NBER Macroeconomics Annual
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2003-01
- Volume
- 18
- Pages
- 209-248
- ISSN
- 0889-3365 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-2642
- OpenAlex
- W3122853957
- Cited by
- 655
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 21.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Mankiw, N. G., Reis, R., & Wolfers, J. (2003). Disagreement about Inflation Expectations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual. https://doi.org/10.1086/ma.18.3585256
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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