Heatwave classification over Europe and the Mediterranean region
Open accessAbstract
A method for defining and classifying heatwave events in the Euro-Mediterranean region is presented. The definition is based on the 95th centile of the local temperature probability density function, with additional criteria for spatial and temporal extension. The heatwave events are then classified into six classes by cluster analysis. The six heatwave patterns of Europe are described and compared to the existing literature. The most catastrophic extreme heatwaves (e.g. 2003 in Europe, 2010 in Russia) are shown to belong to one of these classes. It is then shown that the different classes are associated with different physical mechanisms. The effect of synoptic circulation and hydrological conditions are notably investigated. In particular, a drought appears to be a pre-requisite to heatwave occurrence in some clusters but not all.
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Heatwave prediction using time series weather data faces challenges primarily due to high class imbalance.
“Predicting heatwaves using time series weather data presents several challenges, primarily due to high class imbalance17,18.”
From Comparative analysis of machine learning approaches for heatwave event prediction in India (2025) · cites this paper as [17]
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More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century
Meehl, G. A., & Tebaldi, C. (2004) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1098704 · Cited by 4,322 · see citing works
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Heat Waves: Physical Understanding and Scientific Challenges
Barriopedro, D., García‐Herrera, R., Ordóñez, C., Miralles, D. G., & Salcedo‐Sanz, S. (2023) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2022rg000780 · Cited by 404 · see citing works
Hydro-meteorological risk assessment methods and management by nature-based solutions
Sahani, J., Kumar, P., Debele, S., Spyrou, C., Loupis, M., Aragão, L., Porcù, F., Shah, M. A. R., & Di Sabatino, S. (2019) · Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133936 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
van Straaten, C., Whan, K., Coumou, D., van den Hurk, B., & Schmeits, M. (2022) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/mwr-d-21-0201.1 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Gálfi, V. M., Lucarini, V., & Wouters, J. (2019) · Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment · doi:10.1088/1742-5468/ab02e8 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Comparative analysis of machine learning approaches for heatwave event prediction in India
V, R. C., Johnvictor, A. C., & N, P. S. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-04634-9 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
- Authors
- Stefanon, M., D’Andrea, F., & Drobinski, P.
- Affiliations
- École Normale Supérieure - PSL (FR)
- École Polytechnique (FR)
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2012-02-22
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 014023
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2089046918
- Cited by
- 347
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 36 · 2024: 30 · 2023: 46 · 2022: 38 · 2021: 28 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 21 · 2016: 14 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 11.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- extreme heat, Euro-Mediterranean region, clustering, synoptic circulation, drought, 2003 European heatwave
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