Changing PM2.5 and related meteorology over India from 1950–2014: a new perspective from a chemistry-climate model ensemble
Open accessAbstract
Surface PM2.5 concentrations in India have increased dramatically as emissions have risen in recent years. The role of meteorological factors in this increase is unclear, mainly due to a lack of long-term observations over the region. A 12-member ensemble of historical (1950–2014) simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 2-Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (CESM2-WACCM6) offers an unprecedented opportunity to examine simulated PM2.5 and meteorology for 20th century climates that can arise due to ‘climate noise’ under the same historical greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission trajectories. CESM2-WACCM6 includes interactive aerosol and gas-phase chemistry in the atmosphere coupled to ocean-sea ice-land models, and each ensemble member differs only in its initial conditions of the climate state. We systematically examine, decade-by-decade, the changes in PM2.5 and associated meteorology, including wind speed, surface temperature inversions, boundary layer height, precipitation, and relative humidity in four cities in India: Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai, and New Delhi. Forced changes clearly emerge in meteorological variables from 1950 to 2014, including increases in both relative humidity and temperature inversion strength, and decreases in boundary layer height and average surface wind speed. The timing of these changes varies by city: boundary layer heights decrease most over New Delhi in the premonsoon season (ensemble average decrease of 400…
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The model does not include explicit ammonium or nitrate aerosol chemistry, which can be important contributors to PM2.5, particularly in ammonia-rich regions.
“However, the model does not include explicit ammonium or nitrate aerosol chemistry, which can be important contributors to PM2 : 5, particularly in ammonia-rich regions (Nolte et al., 2018; Hancock et al., 2023).”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Hancock et al., 2023
Previous evaluations have shown that WACCM reproduces the large-scale distributions of tropospheric ozone and key pollutants, as well as climatological patterns of aerosols, with skill comparable to other climate models.
“Previous evaluations have also shown that WACCM reproduces the large-scale distributions of tropospheric ozone and key pollutants, as well as climatological patterns of aerosols, with skill comparable to other climate models (Griffiths et al., 2021; Hancock et al., 2023).”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Hancock et al., 2023
CESM2(WACCM6) is known to overestimate overall dust concentrations, which may contribute to dust appearing as the dominant PM2.5 species in many regions.
“Considering, however, that CESM2(WACCM6) is known to overestimate overall dust concentrations (e.g., Hancock et al., 2023), it is possible that this may contribute to dust appearing as the dominant PM2 : 5 species in many regions”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Hancock et al., 2023
Hancock et al. (2023) indicated that estimates of PM2.5 may overestimate the contribution of dust due to the inclusion of larger dust particles.
“Furthermore, Hancock et al. (2023) has indicated that estimates of PM2 : 5 may overestimate the contribution of dust due to the inclusion of larger dust particles.”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Hancock et al., 2023
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References 61 · Cited by 2
- Authors
- Hancock, S., Fiore, A. M., Westervelt, D. M., Correa, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Venkataraman, C., & Sharma, A.
- Affiliations
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Indian Institute of Technology Bombay (IN)
- Corresponding author
- Hancock, Sarah
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Research: Climate
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2023-01-26
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 015003
- ISSN
- 2752-5295 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4315631313
- Cited by
- 2
- References
- 61
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2024: 1
- FWCI
- 0.22
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Climate (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- PM2.5, air pollution trends, meteorological factors, boundary layer height, temperature inversion, relative humidity, surface wind speed, precipitation, climate noise, CESM2-WACCM6, ensemble climate simulations, anthropogenic emissions, air quality, India, New Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai
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