Glucose time in range, time above range, and time below range depend on mean or median glucose or HbA1c, glucose coefficient of variation, and shape of the glucose distribution

Abstract

Background: Examine the expected relationships between time in range (%TIR), time above range (%TAR), and time below range (%TBR) with median glucose (or %HbA1c) and %coefficient of variation (%CV) of glucose for various shapes of the glucose distribution. Methods: We considered several thresholds defining hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia and examined wide ranges of median glucose and %CV using three models for the glucose distribution: gaussian, log-gaussian, and a modified log-gaussian distribution. Results: There is a linear relationship between %TIR and median glucose for any specified %CV when median glucose is well removed from the threshold for hypoglycemia. %TIR reaches a peak when median glucose is close to 120 mg/dL and declines both at higher and lower median glucose values. There is a nearly linear relationship for %TAR and median glucose for a wider range of glucose (80–220 mg/dL). Risk of hypoglycemia is minimal when %CV is below 20%, but rises exponentially as %CV increases or as median glucose decreases. Similar results were obtained for a wide range of possible shapes of glucose distribution. These simulations are consistent with results from clinical studies. Conclusion: Both %TIR and %TAR are approximately linearly related to mean and median glucose (or %HbA1c). %TAR provides linearity over a wider range than %TIR. Risk of hypoglycemia (%TBR) is critically dependent on both glycemic variability (%CV) and mean or median glucose. These relationships support the use of %TIR, %TAR, and %TBR as metrics of quality of glycemic control for clinical, research, and regulatory purposes.