Three-tiered EGFr domain risk stratification for individualized NOTCH3-small vessel disease prediction
Open accessAbstract
Cysteine-altering missense variants (NOTCH3cys) in one of the 34 epidermal growth-factor-like repeat (EGFr) domains of the NOTCH3 protein are the cause of NOTCH3-associated small vessel disease (NOTCH3-SVD). NOTCH3-SVD is highly variable, ranging from cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL) at the severe end of the spectrum to non-penetrance. The strongest known NOTCH3-SVD modifier is NOTCH3cys variant position: NOTCH3cys variants located in EGFr domains 1–6 are associated with a more severe phenotype than NOTCH3cys variants located in EGFr domains 7–34. The objective of this study was to further improve NOTCH3-SVD genotype-based risk prediction by using relative differences in NOTCH3cys variant frequencies between large CADASIL and population cohorts as a starting point. Scientific CADASIL literature, cohorts and population databases were queried for NOTCH3cys variants. For each EGFr domain, the relative difference in NOTCH3cys variant frequency (NVFOR) was calculated using genotypes of 2574 CADASIL patients and 1647 individuals from population databases. Based on NVFOR cut-off values, EGFr domains were classified as either low (LR-EGFr), medium (MR-EGFr) or high risk (HR-EGFr). The clinical relevance of this new three-tiered EGFr risk classification was cross-sectionally validated by comparing SVD imaging markers and clinical outcomes between EGFr risk categories using a genotype-phenotype data set of 434 CADASIL patients and 1003 NOTCH3cys positive community-dwelling individuals. CADASIL patients and community-dwelling individuals harboured 379 unique NOTCH3cys variants. Nine EGFr domains were classified as an HR-EGFr, which included EGFr domains 1–6, but additionally also EGFr domains 8, 11 and 26. Ten EGFr domains were classified as MR-EGFr and 11 as LR-EGFr. In the population genotype–phenotype data set, HR-EGFr individuals had the highest risk of stroke [odds ratio (OR) = 10.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.46–21.37], followed by MR-EGFr individuals (OR = 1.81, 95% CI: 0.84–3.88) and LR-EGFr individuals (OR = 1 [reference]). MR-EGFr individuals had a significantly higher normalized white matter hyperintensity volume (nWMHv; P = 0.005) and peak width of skeletonized mean diffusivity (PSMD; P = 0.035) than LR-EGFr individuals. In the CADASIL genotype–phenotype data set, HR-EGFr domains 8, 11 and 26 patients had a significantly higher risk of stroke (P = 0.002), disability (P = 0.041), nWMHv (P = 1.8 × 10−8), PSMD (P = 2.6 × 10−8) and lacune volume (P = 0.006) than MR-EGFr patients. SVD imaging marker load and clinical outcomes were similar between HR-EGFr 1–6 patients and HR-EGFr 8, 11 and 26 patients. NVFOR was significantly associated with vascular NOTCH3 aggregation load (P = 0.006), but not with NOTCH3 signalling activity (P = 0.88). In conclusion, we identified three clinically distinct NOTCH3-SVD EGFr risk categories based on NFVOR cut-off values, and identified three additional HR-EGFr domains located outside of EGFr domains 1–6. This EGFr risk classification will provide an important key to individualized NOTCH3-SVD disease prediction.
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NOTCH3 variants were classified by exon and EGFr domain and stratified into high-risk, medium-risk, low-risk, or undetermined-risk categories according to published criteria.
“For patients who underwent genetic testing, NOTCH3 variants were classified by exon and epidermal growth factor–like repeat (EGFr) domain and stratified into high-risk, medium-risk, low-risk, or undetermined-risk categories according to published criteria.9”
From Multiple Sclerosis Misdiagnosis in Cerebral Autosomal Dominant Arteriopathy With Subcortical Infarcts and Leukoencephalopathy (2026) · cites this paper as [9]
The Materials and methods section (page unavailable) defines high-, medium-, low-, and unknown-risk EGFr domains; the Results Figure 2 caption (page unavailable) identifies the exons encoding those domains. However, the risk criteria apply specifically to cysteine-altering NOTCH3 variants, not to NOTCH3 variants generally, and the paper does not set out a separate exon-based risk classification. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredMedium-risk genetic variants may result in atypical phenotypes that complicate recognition of CADASIL and predispose patients to MS misdiagnosis.
“Owing to their intermediate penetrance and variable expressivity,9 medium-risk genetic variants may result in atypical phenotypes that complicate the recognition of CADASIL and predispose patients to MS misdiagnosis.”
From Multiple Sclerosis Misdiagnosis in Cerebral Autosomal Dominant Arteriopathy With Subcortical Infarcts and Leukoencephalopathy (2026) · cites this paper as [9]
The Discussion (page unavailable) says medium-risk NOTCH3 variants are associated with a broad disease spectrum, including very mild subclinical phenotypes. That supports variable presentation, but our copy does not link these variants to difficulty recognizing CADASIL or to MS misdiagnosis. (LLM, conf=0.85)
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Mendis, D. D., Vallamchetla, S. K., Marin Collazo, I. V., Sandhu, S. J. S., & Meschia, J. F. (2026) · Neurology Genetics · doi:10.1212/nxg.0000000000200430
- Authors
- Hack, R. J., Gravesteijn, G., Cerfontaine, M. N., Santcroos, M. A., Gatti, L., Kopczak, A., Bersano, A., Duering, M., Rutten, J. W., & Lesnik Oberstein, S. A. J.
- Affiliations
- Leiden University Medical Center (NL)
- Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta (IT)
- LMU Klinikum (DE)
- University of Basel (CH)
- Department of Clinical Genetics, Leiden University Medical Center , 2333 ZA Leiden , The Netherlands
- ORCID
- Venue
- Brain
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2022-12-20
- Volume
- 146
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 2913-2927
- ISSN
- 0006-8950 (ISSN-L)
- 1460-2156
- PMC
- PMC10316769
- OpenAlex
- W4312019058
- Cited by
- 60
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 4
- FWCI
- 5.40
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Brain (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Leiden Repository (Leiden University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Funders
- Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (91717325)
- The Netherlands Brain Foundation (HA2016-02-03)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Neurology › Cerebrovascular and genetic disorders
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience › Genetic Neurodegenerative Diseases
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Neurology › Neurological Disease Mechanisms and Treatments
- Keywords
- epidermal growth factor-like repeats, CADASIL, risk stratification, genotype-phenotype correlation, stroke risk, cerebral small vessel disease, personalized risk prediction, leukoencephalopathy, white matter hyperintensities, cerebral microbleeds
- MeSH terms
- Receptor, Notch3, Epidermal Growth Factor, Humans, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Mutation, Risk Assessment, Stroke, CADASIL, Receptors, Notch
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