CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 332Climate Change, Adaptation, MigrationClimate Change Policy and EconomicsMigration and Labor Dynamics

Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence

Berlemann, Michael, Steinhardt, Max Friedrich·2017·CESifo Economic Studies
DOI 10.1093/cesifo/ifx019
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Climate-induced migration is one of the most hotly debated topics in the current discourse on global warming and its consequences. There is a burgeoning field in economics and other social sciences linking climatic factors or climate-related natural disasters to migration. Existent empirical studies use different measures to quantify migration flows and climatic factors and apply a variety of methodologies to disparate data sets and samples of countries. Our review article aims to provide a unifying perspective over this complex field by structuring the literature and summarizing the empirical findings. (JEL codes: F22, J11, J61, O13, O15, Q54, R23)

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1093/cesifo/ifx019

Cites

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • If correlated climatic variables are not simultaneously considered, this may lead to omitted variable biases.

    “If correlated climatic variables are not simultaneously considered, this may lead to omitted variable biases (Auffhammer et al. 2013;Berlemann and Steinhardt 2017;Hsiang 2016).”

    From Improving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature (2021) · cites this paper as Berlemann and Steinhardt 2017

    Section 3.4 discusses bias from including variables affected by climate, such as income, rather than from omitting correlated climatic variables. Section 3.2 discusses temperature and precipitation measures but does not address whether failing to consider them simultaneously causes omitted-variable bias. Searches for that specific mechanism found no supporting passage in our copy; no page numbers were available. (LLM, conf=0.73)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

The citation lists haven’t been fetched yet

References 138 · Cited by 332

Research works printed but not linked: 61

  1. Angrist, J. D. and J.-S. Pischke (2009), Mostly Harmless Econometrics. Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
  2. Auffhammer, M. and J. R. Vincent (2012), "Unobserved Time Effects Confound the Identification of Climate Change Impacts", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 109, 11973-4.
  3. Backhaus, A., I. Martinez-Zarzoso, and C. Muris (2015), "Do Climate Variations Explain Bilateral Migration? A gravity Model Analysis", IZA Journal of Migration 4, 3.
  4. Beine, M. and C. Parsons (2015), "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration", Scandinavian Journal of Economics 117, 723-67.
  5. Belasen, A. R. and S. W. Polachek (2013), Migration as a Result of Environmental Disasters. Chapter 17 in A.F. Constant, and K.F. Zimmermann, ed., International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, pp. 309-330.
  6. Bhattacharya, A. B. and J. D. Lichtman (2017), Solar Planetary Systems. Stardust to Terrestrial and Extraterrestrial Planetary Sciences. Taylor & Francis, Boca Raton.
  7. Bohra-Mishra, P., M. Oppenheimer, and S. M. Hsiang (2014), "Nonlinear Permanent Migration Response to Climatic Variations but Minimal Response to Disasters", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 111, 9780-5.
  8. Boustan, L. P., M. E. Kahn, and P. W. Rhode (2012), "Moving to Higher Ground: Migration Response to Natural Disasters in the Early Twentieth Century", American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 102, 238-44.
  9. Cattaneo, C. and G. Peri (2016), "The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures", Journal of Development Economics 122, 127-146.
  10. Christensen, J. H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R. K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L. Mearns, C. G. Mene ´ndez, J. Ra ¨isa ¨nen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr, and P. Whett (2007), Regional Climate Projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, eds, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge; New York, NY.
  11. Clayton, R. L. and J. R. Spletzer (2006), "Worker Mobility Before and After Hurricane Katrina", Monthly Labor Review 129, 11-21.
  12. Costinot, A., D. Donaldson, and C. Smith (2016), "Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World", Journal of Political Economy 124, 205-248.
  13. Dell, M., B. F. Jones, and B. A. Olken (2014), "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature", Journal of Economic Literature 52, 740-798.
  14. Dillon, A., V. Mueller, and S. Salau (2011), "Migratory Responses to Agricultural Risk in Northern Nigeria", American Journal of Agricultural Economics 93, 1048-1061.
  15. Dow, K. and T. E. Downing (2006), The Atlas of Climate Change, Mapping the World's Greatest Challenge. University of California Press, Berkeley.
  16. Ezra, M. and G.-E. Kiros (2006), "Rural Out-Migration in the Drought Prone Areas of Ethiopia: A Multilevel Analysis", International Migration Review 35, 749-771.
  17. Felbermayr, G. J. and J. Gro ¨schl (2014), "Naturally Negative: The Growth Effects of Natural Disasters", Journal of Development Economics 111, 92-106.
  18. Feng, S., A. B. Krueger, and M. Oppenheimer (2010), "Linkages Among Climate Change, Crop Yields and Mexico-US Cross-border Migration", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 107, 14257-14262.
  19. Findley, S. E. (1994), "Does Drought Increase Migration? A Study of Migration from Rural Mali during the 1983-1985 Drought", International Migration Review 28, 539-553.
  20. FitzRoy, F. R. and E. Papyrakis (2017), An Introduction to Climate Change Economics and Policy, 2nd edn. Routledge, London; New York.
  21. Gro ¨ger, A. and Y. Zylberberg (2016), "Internal Labor Migration as a Shock Coping Strategy: Evidence from a Typhoon", American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 8, 123-153.
  22. Haas, J. E., P. B. Trainer, M. J. Bowden, and R. Bolin (1977), "Reconstruction Issues in Perspective", in J. E. Haas, R. W. Kates, and M. J. Bowden, eds, Reconstruction Following Disaster, MIT Press, Cambridge, pp. 25-68.
  23. Halliday, T. (2012), "Intra-household Labor Supply, Migration, and Subsistence Constraints in a Risky Environment: Evidence from Rural El Salvador", European Economic Review 56, 1001-1019.
  24. Hauge, W. and T. Ellingsen (2001), Causal Pathways to Peace, in P. Diehl and N. P. Gleditsch, eds., Environmental Conflict, Westview Press, Boulder, pp. 26-57.
  25. Hori, M., M. J. Schafer, and D. J. Bowman (2009), "Displacement Dynamics in Southern Louisiana After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita", Population Research and Policy Review 28, 45-65.
  26. Hornbeck, R. (2012), "The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short-and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe", American Economic Review 102, 1477-1507.
  27. IPCC (2013), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in Stocker T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgeley, eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  28. Jenkins, A. and D. Holland (2007), "Melting of Floating Ice and Sea Level Rise", Geophysical Research Letters 34, 5.
  29. Jones, G. S., P. A. Stott, and N. Christidis (2008), "Human Contribution to Rapidly Increasing Frequency of Very Warm Northern Hemisphere Summers", Journal of Geophysical Research 113, D02109, 1-17.
  30. Keller, E. A. and D. E. DeVecchio (2012), Natural Hazards: Earth's Processes as Hazards, Disasters, and Catastrophes, 2nd edn. Pearson/Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ.
  31. Kharin, V. Y., F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G. C. Hegerl (2007), "Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensembles of Global Coupled Model Simulations", Journal of Climate 20, 1419-1444.
  32. Kodra, E., K. Steinhaeuser, and A. R. Ganguly (2011), "Persisting Cold Extremes Under 21st- century Warming Scenarios", Geophysical Research Letters 38, 1-5.
  33. Kyseli, J. (2009), "Recent Severe Heat Waves in Central Europe: How to View Them in a Long-term Perspective", International Journal of Climatology 30, 89-109.
  34. Mbaye, L. M. and K. F. Zimmermann (2016), "Natural Disasters and Human Mobility", International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics 10, 37-56.
  35. McGuire, B. (2013), Waking the Giant: How a Changing Climate Triggers Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Volcanoes. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  36. McIntosh, M. F. (2008), "Measuring the Labor Market Impacts of Hurricane Katrina Migration: Evidence from Houston, Texas", American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 98, 54-57.
  37. McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist (1993), "The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scale", in Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, California, 17-22 January 1993, American Meteorological Society, Boston, pp. 179-184.
  38. Menzel, A. and N. Estrella (2001), Plant Phenological Changes, in G. -R. Walther, C.A. Burger, and P.J. Edwards, eds., "Fingerprints" of Climate Change -Adapted Behaviour and Shifting Species Ranges, Kluwer Academic Publishers, New York, pp. 123-37.
  39. Millock, K. (2015), "Migration and Environment", Annual Review of Resource Economics 7, 35-60.
  40. Moore, W. H. and S. M. Shellman (2004), "Fear of Persecution", Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, 723-745.
  41. Munshi, K. (2003), "Networks in the Modern Economy: Mexican Migrants in the US Labor Market", Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, 549-99.
  42. Naude ´, W. (2010), "The Determinants of Migration from Sub-Saharan African Countries", Journal of African Economies 19, 330-356.
  43. Noy, I. (2009), "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Natural Disasters", Journal of Development Economics 88, 221-231.
  44. OECD (2017), International Migration Outlook 2017. OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi. org/10.1787/migr_outlook-2017-en · DOI
  45. O ¨zden, C., C. Parsons, M. Schiff, and T. Walmsley (2011), "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of International Bilateral Migrant Stocks 1960-2000", World Bank Economic Review 25, 12-56.
  46. O'Gorman, P. A. and T. Schneider (2009), "The Physical Basis for Increases in Precipitation Extremes in Simulations of 21st-century Climate Change", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 106, 14773-14777.
  47. Pedersen, P., M. Pytlikova, and N. Smith (2008), "Selection and Network Effects-Migration Flows into OECD Countries 1990-2000", European Economic Review 52, 1160-1186.
  48. Piguet, E., A. Pecoud, and P. de Guchteneire (2011), "Migration and Climate Change: An Overview", Refugee Survey Quarterly 30, 1-23.
  49. Poot, J., O. Alimi, M. P. Cameron, and D. C. Mare ´(2016), "The Gravity Model of Migration: the Successful Comeback of an Ageing Superstar in Regional Science", Investigaciones Regionales - Journal of Regional Research 36, 63-86.
  50. Reuveny, R. and W. H. Moore (2009), "Does Environmental Degradation Influence Migration? Emigration to Developed Countries in the Late 1980s and 1990s", Social Science Quarterly 90, 461-479.
  51. Rose, A. (2004), Economic Principles, Issues, and Research Priorities in Hazard Loss Estimation, in Y. Okuyama, and S.E. Chang, eds., Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, Springer, Berlin, pp. 13-36.
  52. Rosenzweig, M. R. and O. Stark (1989), "Consumption Smoothing, Migration, and Marriage: Evidence from Rural India", Journal of Political Economy 97, 905-926.
  53. Ruyssen, I. and G. Rayp (2013), "Determinants of Intraregional Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa 1980-2000", Journal of Development Studies 50, 426-443.
  54. Strobl, E. and M.-A. Valfort (2015), "The Effect of Weather-induced Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets. Evidence from Uganda", World Bank Economic Review 29, 385-412.
  55. Strobl, E. (2012), "The Economic Growth Impact of Natural Disasters in Developing Countries: Evidence from Hurricane Strikes in the Central American and Caribbean Regions", Journal of Development Economics 97, 130-141.
  56. Thomas, V. (2014), "Confronting Climate-Related Disasters in Asia and the Pacific", Review of Economics 65, 121-136.
  57. Tubiello, F. N., J.-F. Soussana, and S. M. Howden (2007), "Crop and Pasture Response to Climate Change", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104, 19686-19690.
  58. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., S. Beguerı ´a, and J. I. Lo ´pez-Moreno (2010), "A Multi-scalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index - SPEI", Journal of Climate 23, 1696-1718.
  59. Wardle, P. and M. C. Coleman (1992), "Evidence for Rising Upper Limits of Four Native New Zealand Forest Trees", New Zealand Journal of Botanics 30, 303-314.
  60. Yin, J.H. (2005), "A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate", Geophysical Research Letters 32, 1-4.
  61. Zhao, C., B. Liu, S. Piao, X. Wang, D. B. Lobell, Y. Huang, M. Huang, Y. Yao, S. Bassu, P. Ciais, J.-L. Durand, J. Elliott, F. Ewert, I. A. Janssens, T. Li, E. Lin, Q. Liu, P. Martre, C. Mu ¨ller, S. Peng, J. Penuelas, A. C. Ruane, D. Wallach, T. Wang, D. Wu, Z. Liu, Y. Zhu, Z. Zhu, and S. Asseng (2017), " Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 114, 9326-9331.

Authors
Berlemann, M., & Steinhardt, M. F.
Affiliations
Helmut Schmidt University (DE)
ORCID
Venue
CESifo Economic Studies
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2017-11-24
Volume
63
Issue
4
Pages
353-385
ISSN
  • 1610-241X (ISSN-L)
  • 1612-7501
DOI
10.1093/cesifo/ifx019
OpenAlex
W2770196353
Cited by
332
References
138
Citations by year
2026: 22 · 2025: 43 · 2024: 50 · 2023: 70 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 89 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 2
FWCI
25.21
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • CESifo Economic Studies (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
Keywords
climate-induced migration, climate change, natural disasters, global warming, migration flows, climate and migration

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review