The relationship between ethnic threat and economic insecurity in times of economic crisis: Analysis of European Social Survey data

Abstract

This study analyses the relationship between attitudes toward immigration and deteriorating economic conditions in times of crisis. We examine three questions: First, how are a vulnerable position in the labour market and recent changes to an individual’s economic situation related to perceived ethnic threat? Second, what is the role of the nation’s economic and immigration context? Last, are relationships at the individual level between economic conditions and perceived ethnic threat affected by contextual variables? Data from 23 countries sampled in the fifth round of the European Social Survey (ESS-5, 2010) is used. At the micro level, unemployment, job insecurity and income deprivation during the three years prior to the survey affect perceived ethnic threat, as predicted by group conflict theory. These effects are, however, relatively small. Among the contextual variables, only growth in gross domestic product (GDP) shows an effect in the expected direction: perceived threat is higher in countries where GDP growth is lower. However, the study design does not allow the conclusion that changes in the economic context lead to changes in attitudes toward immigrants. The significant cross-level interaction for economic growth indicates that the threat-inducing effect of unemployment is stronger in contexts where the growth in GDP is high. This finding contradicts our hypothesis. One could explain this by the emergence of a generalized feeling of economic insecurity in countries severely hit by the economic crisis. In these countries, strong feelings of economic insecurity—and the resulting levels of perceived ethnic threat—might also be present among those who are employed, thereby diminishing the gap between them and the unemployed.