Cited by 544Global Financial Crisis and PoliciesEconomic Theory and PolicyFiscal Policies and Political Economy

The DOI matches its Crossref record.

The Missing Wealth of Nations: Are Europe and the U.S. net Debtors or net Creditors?*

Open access
Zucman, Gabriel·2013·The Quarterly Journal of Economics

Abstract

This article shows that official statistics substantially underestimate the net foreign asset positions of rich countries because they fail to capture most of the assets held by households in offshore tax havens. Drawing on a unique Swiss data set and exploiting systematic anomalies in countries’ portfolio investment positions, I find that around 8% of the global financial wealth of households is held in tax havens, three-quarters of which goes unrecorded. On the basis of plausible assumptions, accounting for unrecorded assets turns the eurozone, officially the world’s second largest net debtor, into a net creditor. It also reduces the U.S. net debt significantly. The results shed new light on global imbalances and challenge the widespread view that after a decade of poor-to-rich capital flows, external assets are now in poor countries and debts in rich countries. I provide concrete proposals to improve international statistics.

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1093/qje/qjt012

Cites

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Alstadsæter, Johannesen, and Zucman (2019) argue that the top 0.01 percent evades about 25 percent of its tax liability by moving assets and investment income abroad.

    “Combining the micro data from specific leaks with estimates of the aggregate amount of offshore wealth from macroeconomic statistics (Zucman 2013), they argue that the top 0.01 percent evades about 25 percent of its tax liability by moving assets and investment income abroad.”

    From Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications (2020) · cites this paper as Zucman 2013

Citations

Cites

No references could be resolved yet.

Research works printed but not linked: 49

  1. Aguiar, 2011, “Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation,”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126, 651, 10.1093/qje/qjr015 · DOI
  2. Alfaro, “Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows and Global Imbalances,”, 10.3386/w17396 · DOI
  3. Atkinson, 2011, “Top Incomes in the Long Run of History,”, Journal of Economic Literature, 49, 3, 10.1257/jel.49.1.3 · DOI · Paper page
  4. BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis), 2011, U.S. International Transactions Accounts
  5. Bertaut, 2006, “Understanding U.S. Cross-Border Securities Data,”, Federal Reserve Bulletin, A59
  6. Blanchard, 2005, “International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar,”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 1, 10.1353/eca.2005.0010 · DOI
  7. Blanchard, “Global Imbalances: In Midstream?,”, 10.2139/ssrn.1525542 · DOI
  8. Caballero, 2008, “An Equilibrium Model of ‘Global Imbalances’ and Low Interest Rates,”, American Economic Review, 98, 358, 10.1257/aer.98.1.358 · DOI
  9. Cap Gemini and Merrill Lynch, World Wealth Report
  10. Carroll, “A Tractable Model of Precautionary Reserves, Net Foreign Assets, or Sovereign Wealth Funds,”, 10.3386/w15228 · DOI
  11. Clarida, 2007, G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, 10.7208/chicago/9780226107288.001.0001 · DOI
  12. Credit Suisse, Global Wealth Report,
  13. Curcuru, 2008, “Cross-Border Returns Differentials,”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123, 1495, 10.1162/qjec.2008.123.4.1495 · DOI
  14. Curcuru, 2009, “Current Account Sustainability and Relative Reliability,”, 10.1086/595998 · DOI
  15. Davies, 2011, “The Level and Distribution of Global Household Wealth,”, Economic Journal, 121, 223, 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02391.x · DOI
  16. Dell, 2007, “Income and Wealth Concentration in Switzerland over the 20th Century,”, 472, 10.1093/oso/9780199286881.003.0011 · DOI
  17. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Report on U.S. Portfolio Holdings of Foreign Securities as of December 31, 2008,
  18. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Report on U.S. Portfolio Holdings of Foreign Securities as of December 31, 2011
  19. Dollar, 2006, “Neither a Borrower nor a Lender: Does China’s Zero Net Foreign Asset Position Make Economic Sense?,”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 53, 943, 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.05.003 · DOI
  20. Dooley, “An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System,”, 10.3386/w9971 · DOI
  21. Engel, 2006, “The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output,”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 53, 1063, 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.05.002 · DOI
  22. Fisman, 2004, “Tax Rates and Tax Evasion: Evidence from ‘missing imports’ in China,”, Journal of Political Economy, 112, 471, 10.1086/381476 · DOI
  23. Gest, 2005, “Les placements en valeurs mobilières des agents économiques au quatrième trimestre 2004,”, Bulletin de la Banque de France, 136
  24. Gourinchas, 2007, “International Financial Adjustment,”, Journal of Political Economy, 115, 665, 10.1086/521966 · DOI
  25. Gourinchas, 2007, “From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege,”, 10.7208/chicago/9780226107288.003.0002 · DOI
  26. Gravelle, 2009, “Tax Havens: International Tax Avoidance and Evasion,”, National Tax Journal, 62, 727, 10.17310/ntj.2009.4.07 · DOI
  27. Hausmann, 2007, “Global Imbalances or Bad Accounting? The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations and Its Implications for Global Imbalances,”, Economic Policy, 22, 469, 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2007.00182.x · DOI
  28. Johannesen, “Tax Evasion and Swiss Bank Deposits,”, 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2013.12.003 · DOI
  29. Johannesen, 2013, “The End of Bank Secrecy? An Evaluation of the G20 Tax Haven Crackdown,”
  30. Lane, 2011–2012, “The Dynamics of Ireland’s Net External Position,”, Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, 41, 24
  31. Lane, 2007, “The Externel Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970–2004,”, Journal of International Economics, 73, 223, 10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.02.003 · DOI
  32. Lane, 2008, “International Investment Patterns,”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 90, 538, 10.1162/rest.90.3.538 · DOI
  33. Lane, 2009, “Where Did All the Borrowing Go? A Forensic Analysis of the U.S. External Position,”, Journal of the Japanase and International Economies, 23, 177, 10.1016/j.jjie.2008.11.002 · DOI
  34. Lane, 2011, “Cross-Border Investment in Small International Financial Centers,”, International Finance, 14, 301, 10.1111/j.1468-2362.2011.01281.x · DOI
  35. Ma, “China’s Evolving External Wealth and Rising Creditor Position,”, 10.2139/ssrn.1458298 · DOI
  36. Mendoza, 2009, “Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances,”, Journal of Political Economy, 117, 371, 10.1086/599706 · DOI
  37. Milesi-Ferretti, “Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances: A View on the Eve of the Financial Crisis,”, 10.5089/9781455209576.001 · DOI
  38. Motala, 1997, “Statistical Discrepancies in the World Current Account,”, Finance and Development, 34, 24
  39. Obstfeld, 2005, “Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments,”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 67, 10.1353/eca.2005.0020 · DOI
  40. Obstfeld, 2010, “Financial Stability, the Trilemma and International Reserves,”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2, 57
  41. Palan, Tax Havens: How Globalization Really Works
  42. Portes, 2005, “The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows,”, Journal of International Economics, 65, 269, 10.1016/j.jinteco.2004.05.002 · DOI
  43. Roine, 2009, “Wealth Concentration over the Path of Development: Sweden, 1873–2005,”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 111, 151, 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.01558.x · DOI
  44. Schaufelbuehl, 2009, La France et la Suisse ou la force du petit. Evasion fiscale, relations commerciales et financières (1940–1954)
  45. Sheppard, “Offshore Explorations: Caribbean Gedge Funds, Part 1,”, Tax Notes
  46. Song, 2011, “Growing like China,”, American Economic Review, 101, 196, 10.1257/aer.101.1.196 · DOI · Paper page
  47. Tax Justice Network, 2005, The Price of Offshore
  48. Wooldridge, “The Changing Composition of Official Reserves,”, BIS Quarterly Review
  49. Zaki, 2010, Le secret bancaire est mort, vive l’évasion fiscale!

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Metadata

Authors
Zucman, G.
Affiliations
Paris School of Economics (FR)
Corresponding author
Zucman, Gabriel
Venue
The Quarterly Journal of Economics
Published
2013-06-07
Volume
128
Issue
3
Pages
1321-1364
ISSN
  • 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
  • 1531-4650
OpenAlex
W2144173116
Cited by
544
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 16 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 48 · 2022: 28 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 63 · 2019: 30 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 37 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 29 · 2013: 8
FWCI
55.24
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
other-oa
Locations
  • The Quarterly Journal of Economics (publishedVersion)
  • London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • HAL (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Global Financial Crisis and Policies
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
Keywords
net foreign assets, household wealth, tax havens, global imbalances, capital flows, euro area, United States, international statistics, The Wealth of Nations

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review