The impact of implementing tobacco control policies: the 2017 tobacco control policy scorecard
Open accessAbstract
The Tobacco Control Scorecard, published in 2004, presented estimates of the effectiveness of different policies on smoking rates. Since its publication, new evidence has emerged. We update the Scorecard to include recent studies of demand-reducing tobacco policies for high-income countries. We include cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, media campaigns, comprehensive tobacco control programs, marketing bans, health warnings, and cessation treatment policies. To update the 2004 Scorecard, a narrative review was conducted on reviews and studies published after 2000, with additional focus on 3 policies in which previous evidence was limited: tobacco control programs, graphic health warnings, and marketing bans. We consider evaluation studies that measured the effects of policies on smoking behaviors. Based on these findings, we derive estimates of short-term and long-term policy effect sizes. Cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions, and comprehensive tobacco control programs are each found to play important roles in reducing smoking prevalence. Cessation treatment policies and graphic health warnings also reduce smoking and, when combined with policies that increase quit attempts, can improve quit success. The effect sizes are broadly consistent with those previously reported for the 2004 Scorecard but now reflect the larger evidence base evaluating the impact of health warnings and advertising restrictions.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The effectiveness of the demand-reduction policies outlined in the FCTC articles has been documented.
“The effectiveness of the demand-reduction policies outlined in the FCTC articles has been documented”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Pictorial cigarette pack warnings: a meta-analysis of experimental studies
Noar, S. M., Hall, M. G., Francis, D. B., Ribisl, K. M., Pepper, J. K., & Brewer, N. T. (2016) · Tobacco Control · doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2014-051978 · Cited by 674 · see citing works
Aveyard, P., Begh, R., Parsons, A., & West, R. (2012) · Addiction · doi:10.1111/j.1360-0443.2011.03770.x · Cited by 390 · see citing works
An international analysis of cigarette affordability
Blecher, E. H., & van Walbeek, C. P. (2004) · Tobacco Control · doi:10.1136/tc.2003.006726 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 80
- [1]Hopkins DP Briss PA Ricard CJ Reviews of evidence regarding interventions to reduce tobacco use and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke. Am J Prev Med. 2001; 20(2 suppl): 16– 66. 11173215
- [2]Levy DT Chaloupka F Gitchell J The effects of tobacco control policies on smoking rates: a tobacco control scorecard. J Pub Health Manag Pract. 2004; 10(4): 338– 353. 15235381
- [3]Levy D de Almeida LM Szklo A The Brazil SimSmoke policy simulation model: the effect of strong tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in a middle income nation. PLoS Med. 2012; 9(11): e1001336. 23139643 PMC3491001
- [4]Levy D Rodriguez-Buno RL Hu TW Moran AE The potential effects of tobacco control in China: projections from the China SimSmoke simulation model. BMJ. 2014; 348: g1134. 24550245 PMC3928439
- [5]Levy DT Fouad H Levy J Dragomir AD El Awa F Application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to four Eastern Mediterranean countries. Tob Control. 2016; 25(4): 413– 421. 26080365 PMC4681690
- [6]Levy DT Huang AT Currie LM Clancy L The benefits from complying with the framework convention on tobacco control: a SimSmoke analysis of 15 European nations. Health Policy Plan. 2014; 29(8): 1031– 1042. 24262281
- [7]Levy DT Meza R Zhang Y Holford TR Gauging the effect of U.S. tobacco control policies from 1965 through 2014 using SimSmoke. Am J Prev Med. 2016; 50(4): 535– 542. 26673484 PMC4801780
- [8]Mendez D Alshanqeety O Warner KE The potential impact of smoking control policies on future global smoking trends. Tob Control. 2013; 22(1): 46– 51. 22535364
- [9]Levy DT Ellis JA Mays D Huang AT Smoking-related deaths averted due to three years of policy progress. Bull World Health Organ. 2013; 91(7): 509– 518. 23825878 PMC3699793
- [11]Hoffman SJ Tan C Overview of systematic reviews on the health-related effects of government tobacco control policies. BMC Public Health. 2015; 15: 744. 26242915 PMC4526291
- [15]Jamal A King BA Neff LJ Whitmill J Babb SD Graffunder CM Current cigarette smoking among adults—United States, 2005-2015. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2016; 65(44): 1205– 1211. 27832052
- [16]Chaloupka FJ Straif K Leon ME; Working Group IAfRoC. Effectiveness of tax and price policies in tobacco control. Tob Control. 2011; 20(3): 235– 238. 21115556
- [17]Wilson LM Avila Tang E Chander G Impact of tobacco control interventions on smoking initiation, cessation, and prevalence: a systematic review. J Environ Public Health. 2012; 2012: 961724. 22719777 PMC3376479
- [18]Chaloupka FJ Kostova D Shang C Cigarette excise tax structure and cigarette prices: evidence from the global adult tobacco survey and the U.S. National Adult Tobacco Survey. Nicotine Tob Res. 2014; 16(suppl 1): S3– S9. 23935181
- [19]Shang C Chaloupka FJ Fong GT Thompson M O'Connor RJ The association between tax structure and cigarette price variability: findings from the ITC Project. Tob Control. 2015; 24(suppl 3): iii88– iii93. 25855641 PMC4612523
- [20]Shang C Chaloupka FJ Zahra N Fong GT The distribution of cigarette prices under different tax structures: findings from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC) Project. Tob Control. 2014; 23(suppl 1): i23– i29. 23792324 PMC4009360
- [21]Carbajales AR Curti D [Fiscal policy, affordability and cross effects in the demand for tobacco products: the case of Uruguay]. Salud Publica Mex. 2010; 52(suppl 2): S186– S196. 21243189
- [22]White JS Ross H Smokers' strategic responses to sin taxes: evidence from panel data in Thailand. Health Econ. 2015; 24(2): 127– 141. 24677731 PMC3989462
- [24]Nargis N Hussain AK Fong GT Smokeless tobacco product prices and taxation in Bangladesh: findings from the International Tobacco Control Survey. Indian J Cancer. 2014; 51(suppl 1): S33– S38. 25526246 PMC4562014
- [26]Guindon GE Tobin S Yach D Trends and affordability of cigarette prices: ample room for tax increases and related health gains. Tob Control. 2002; 11(1): 35– 43. 11891366 PMC1747639
- [27]Kostova D Chaloupka FJ Yurekli A A cross-country study of cigarette prices and affordability: evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey. Tob Control. 2014; 23(1): e3. 22923477
- [28]Callinan JE Clarke A Doherty K Kelleher C Legislative smoking bans for reducing secondhand smoke exposure, smoking prevalence and tobacco consumption. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2010;(4): CD005992. 20393945
- [29]Frazer K Callinan JE McHugh J Legislative smoking bans for reducing harms from secondhand smoke exposure, smoking prevalence and tobacco consumption. Cochrane Database Syst Revi. 2016; 2: CD005992. PMC6486282 26842828
- [30]Nesoff ED Milam AJ Bone LR Tobacco policies and on-premise smoking in bars and clubs that cater to young African Americans following the Maryland Clean Indoor Air Act of 2007. J Ethn Subst Abuse. 2017; 16(3): 328– 343. 27403708 PMC6089362
- [31]Huang J Walton K Gerzoff RB State tobacco control program spending—United States, 2011. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2015; 64(24): 673– 678. 26110838 PMC4584745
- [32]Rhoads JK The effect of comprehensive state tobacco control programs on adult cigarette smoking. J Health Econ. 2012; 31(2): 393– 405. 22459501
- [33]Farrelly MC Loomis BR Kuiper N Are tobacco control policies effective in reducing young adult smoking? J Adolesc Health. 2014; 54(4): 481– 486. 24268360 PMC4603421
- [34]Farrelly MC Loomis BR Han B A comprehensive examination of the influence of state tobacco control programs and policies on youth smoking. Am J Public Health. 2013; 103(3): 549– 555. 23327252 PMC3673505
- [35]Bala MM Strzeszynski L Topor-Madry R Cahill K Mass media interventions for smoking cessation in adults. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2013; 6: CD004704. 23744348
- [36]Davis KC Farrelly MC Duke J Kelly L Willett J Antismoking media campaign and smoking cessation outcomes, New York State, 2003-2009. Prev Chronic Dis. 2012; 9: E40. 22261250 PMC3320091
- [37]Huang LL Thrasher JF Abad EN The U.S. national tips from former smokers antismoking campaign: promoting awareness of smoking-related risks, cessation resources, and cessation behaviors. Health Educ Behav. 2015; 42(4): 480– 486. 25588934 PMC4501900
- [38]McAfee T Davis KC Alexander RL Jr Pechacek TF Bunnell R Effect of the first federally funded US antismoking national media campaign. Lancet. 2013; 382(9909): 2003– 2011. 24029166
- [39]Xu X Alexander RL Jr Simpson SA A cost-effectiveness analysis of the first federally funded antismoking campaign. Am J Prev Med. 2015; 48(3): 318– 325. 25498550 PMC4603744
- [40]Emery S Kim Y Choi YK Szczypka G Wakefield M Chaloupka FJ The effects of smoking-related television advertising on smoking and intentions to quit among adults in the United States: 1999-2007. Am J Public Health. 2012; 102(4): 751– 757. 22397350 PMC3489369
- [41]Nonnemaker JM Allen JA Davis KC Kamyab K Duke JC Farrelly MC The influence of antismoking television advertisements on cessation by race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and mental health status. PLoS One. 2014; 9(7): e102943. 25033449 PMC4102573
- [42]Nonnemaker JM Dench D Homsi G MacMonegle A Duke J The effect of exposure to media campaign messages on adult cessation. Addict Behav. 2015; 49: 13– 19. 26036664
- [43]Sims M Salway R Langley T Effectiveness of tobacco control television advertising in changing tobacco use in England: a population-based cross-sectional study. Addiction. 2014; 109(6): 986– 994. 24467285 PMC4114556
- [44]Davis KC Shafer PR Rodes R Does digital video advertising increase population-level reach of multimedia campaigns? Evidence from the 2013 tips from former smokers campaign. J Med Internet Res. 2016; 18(9): e235. 27627853 PMC5040867
- [45]Hammond D Health warning messages on tobacco products: a review. Tob Control. 2011; 20(5): 327– 337. 21606180
- [46]Monárrez-Espino J Liu B Greiner F Bremberg S Galanti R Systematic review of the effect of pictorial warnings on cigarette packages in smoking behavior. Am J Public Health. 2014; 104(10): e11– e30. PMC4167086 25122019
- [47]Noar SM Francis DB Bridges C Sontag JM Ribisl KM Brewer NT The impact of strengthening cigarette pack warnings: systematic review of longitudinal observational studies. Soc Sci Med. 2016; 164(suppl C): 118– 129. 27423739 PMC5026824
- [49]Azagba S Sharaf MF The effect of graphic cigarette warning labels on smoking behavior: evidence from the Canadian experience. Nicotine Tob Res. 2013; 15(3): 708– 717. 22990228
- [50]Huang J Chaloupka FJ Fong GT Cigarette graphic warning labels and smoking prevalence in Canada: a critical examination and reformulation of the FDA regulatory impact analysis. Tob Control. 2014; 23(suppl 1): i7– i12. 24218057 PMC4254709
- [51]Levy DT Mays D Yuan Z Hammond D Thrasher JF Public health benefits from pictorial health warnings on U.S. cigarette packs: a SimSmoke simulation. Tob Control. 2017; 26(6): 649– 655. 27807299 PMC5966722
- [52]Li L Borland R Yong HH Reported exposures to anti-smoking messages and their impact on Chinese smoker's subsequent quit attempts. Int J Behav Med. 2014; 21(4): 667– 676. 24078490 PMC4546845
- [53]Hitchman SC Driezen P Logel C Hammond D Fong GT Changes in effectiveness of cigarette health warnings over time in Canada and the United States, 2002-2011. Nicotine Tob Res. 2014; 16(5): 536– 543. 24323572 PMC3977488
- [54]Green AC Kaai SC Fong GT Driezen P Quah AC Burhoo P Investigating the effectiveness of pictorial health warnings in Mauritius: findings from the ITC Mauritius survey. Nicotine Tob Res. 2014; 16(9): 1240– 1247. 24747120 PMC4184398
- [55]Nagelhout GE Osman A Yong HH Huang LL Borland R Thrasher JF Was the media campaign that supported Australia's new pictorial cigarette warning labels and plain packaging policy associated with more attention to and talking about warning labels? Addict Behav. 2015; 49: 64– 67. 26050643 PMC4794999
- [56]McKeganey N Russell C Tobacco plain packaging: evidence based policy or public health advocacy? Int J Drug Policy. 2015; 26(6): 560– 568. 26041731
- [57]Smith CN Kraemer JD Johnson AC Mays D Plain packaging of cigarettes: do we have sufficient evidence? Risk Manag Healthc Policy. 2015; 8: 21– 30. 25897269 PMC4396458
- [58]Stead M Moodie C Angus K Is consumer response to plain/standardised tobacco packaging consistent with framework convention on tobacco control guidelines? A systematic review of quantitative studies. PLoS One. 2013; 8(10): e75919. 24146791 PMC3797796
- [59]Hughes N Arora M Grills N Perceptions and impact of plain packaging of tobacco products in low and middle income countries, middle to upper income countries and low-income settings in high-income countries: a systematic review of the literature. BMJ Open. 2016; 6(3): e010391. PMC4809104 27000787
- [60]Capella M Taylor C Webster C The effect of cigarette advertising bans on consumption: a meta-analysis. J Advertising. 2008; 37(2): 7– 18.
- [61]Henriksen L Comprehensive tobacco marketing restrictions: promotion, packaging, price and place. Tob Control. 2012; 21(2): 147– 153. 22345238 PMC4256379
- [62]Quentin W Neubauer S Leidl R Konig HH Advertising bans as a means of tobacco control policy: a systematic literature review of time-series analyses. Int J Public Health. 2007; 52(5): 295– 307. 18030945
- [63]Blecher E The impact of tobacco advertising bans on consumption in developing countries. J Health Econ. 2008; 27(4): 930– 942. 18440661
- [64]Saffer H Chaloupka F The effect of tobacco advertising bans on tobacco consumption. J Health Econ. 2000; 19(6): 1117– 1137. 11186847
- [65]Schaap MM Kunst AE Leinsalu M Effect of nationwide tobacco control policies on smoking cessation in high and low educated groups in 18 European countries. Tob Control. 2008; 17(4): 248– 255. 18483129
- [66]Lovato C Watts A Stead LF Impact of tobacco advertising and promotion on increasing adolescent smoking behaviours. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2011(10): CD003439. 21975739 PMC7173757
- [67]Harris F MacKintosh AM Anderson S Effects of the 2003 advertising/promotion ban in the United Kingdom on awareness of tobacco marketing: findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey. Tob Control. 2006; 15(suppl 3): iii26– iii33. 16754943 PMC2593060
- [68]Kasza KA Hyland AJ Brown A The effectiveness of tobacco marketing regulations on reducing smokers' exposure to advertising and promotion: findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2011; 8(2): 321– 340. 21556189 PMC3084464
- [69]Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Tobacco use, access, and exposure to tobacco in media among middle and high school students—United States, 2004. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2005; 54(12): 297– 301. 15800473
- [70]Goel RK Advertising media and cigarette demand. Bull Econ Res. 2011; 63(4): 404– 416. 22167909
- [71]Levy D Mabry P Graham A Orleans CT Abrams D Exploring scenarios to dramatically reduce smoking prevalence: a simulation model of the three-part cessation process. Am J Public Health. 2010; 100(7): 1253– 1259. 20466969 PMC2882411
- [72]Reda AA Kotz D Evers SM van Schayck CP Healthcare financing systems for increasing the use of tobacco dependence treatment. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2012(6): CD004305. 22696341
- [73]Levy DT Graham AL Mabry PL Abrams DB Orleans CT Modeling the impact of smoking-cessation treatment policies on quit rates. Am J Prev Med. 2010; 38(3 suppl): S364– S372. 20176309 PMC2843145
- [74]Levy DT Friend K A simulation model of policies directed at treating tobacco use and dependence. Med Decis Making. 2002; 22(1): 6– 17. 11833665
- [75]Stead LF Hartmann-Boyce J Perera R Lancaster T Telephone counselling for smoking cessation. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2013(8): CD002850. 23934971
- [76]West R Raw M McNeill A Health-care interventions to promote and assist tobacco cessation: a review of efficacy, effectiveness and affordability for use in national guideline development. Addiction. 2015; 110(9): 1388– 1403. 26031929 PMC4737108
- [77]Abrams DB Graham AL Levy DT Mabry PL Orleans CT Boosting population quits through evidence-based cessation treatment and policy. Am J Prev Med. 2010; 38(3 suppl): S351– S363. 20176308 PMC4515751
- [79]Levy DT Mabry PL Graham AL Orleans CT Abrams DB Reaching Healthy People 2010 by 2013: a SimSmoke simulation. Am J Prev Med. 2010; 38(3 suppl): S373– S381. 20176310 PMC2843137
- [80]Levy DT Hyland A Higbee C Remer L Compton C The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence in California: results from the California Tobacco Policy Simulation Model. Health Policy. 2007; 82(2): 153– 166. 17055104 PMC2743269
- [81]Levy DT Ross H Powell L Bauer JE Lee HR The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths caused by smoking in Arizona: results from the Arizona tobacco policy simulation model. J Pub Health Manag Prac. 2007; 13(1): 59– 67. 17149101
- [82]Levy DT Boyle RG Abrams DB The role of public policies in reducing smoking: the Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco policy model. Am J Prev Med. 2012; 43(5 suppl 3): S179– S186. 23079215 PMC4487773
- [83]Currie LM Blackman K Clancy L Levy DT The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in Ireland using the IrelandSS simulation model. Tob Control. 2012; 22(e1): e25– e32. 22634570
- [84]Levy DT Currie L Clancy L Tobacco control policy in the UK: blueprint for the rest of Europe? Eur J Public Health. 2012; 23(2): 201– 206. 22826505
- [85]Levy DT Cummings KM Villanti AC A framework for evaluating the public health impact of e-cigarettes and other vaporized nicotine products. Addiction. 2017; 112(1): 8– 17. 27109256 PMC5079857
- [86]Levy D Currie L Clancy L SimSmokeFinn: how far can tobacco control policies move Finland toward tobacco-free 2040 goals? Scand J Pub Health. 2012; 40(6): 544– 552. 22899560
- [87]McDaniel PA Smith EA Malone RE The tobacco endgame: a qualitative review and synthesis. Tob Control. 2016; 25(5): 594– 604. 26320149 PMC5036259
- [88]Arnott D There's no single endgame. Tob Control. 2013; 22(suppl 1): i38– i39. 23591506 PMC3632972
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Reitsma, M. B., Kendrick, P. J., Ababneh, E., Abbafati, C., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abdoli, A., Abedi, A., Abhilash, E. S., Abila, D. B., Aboyans, V., et al. (2021) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01169-7 · Cited by 1,759 · see citing works
Smoking and Stress in the General Population in Denmark
Buhelt, L., Pisinger, C., & Andreasen, A. (2021) · Tobacco Prevention & Cessation · doi:10.18332/tpc/132712 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
- Authors
- Levy, D. T., Tam, J., Kuo, C., Fong, G. T., & Chaloupka, F.
- Affiliations
- Ontario Institute for Cancer Research (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Levy, David T.
- Venue
- Journal of Public Health Management and Practice
- Published
- 2018-09
- Volume
- 24
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 448-457
- ISSN
- 1078-4659 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6050159
- OpenAlex
- W2791935956
- Cited by
- 174
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 28 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 8
- FWCI
- 2.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Public Health Management and Practice (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (2u01ca097450-05)
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (R01DA036497)
- National Cancer Institute (U01CA199284, U01-CA097450, P01CA200512)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Public Health Policies and Education
- Keywords
- tobacco control, smoking prevalence, cigarette taxes, smoking bans, graphic health warnings, media campaigns, quit attempts, high-income countries
- MeSH terms
- Cigarette Smoking, Health Policy, Humans, Taxes, Nicotiana, Tobacco Products, Tobacco Industry, Smoke-Free Policy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review