Cited by 798Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsComplex Network Analysis TechniquesStochastic processes and statistical mechanics

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The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions

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Keeling, M. J.·1999·Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences

DOI 10.1098/rspb.1999.0716PMC PMC1689913

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Abstract

Predicting the likely success of invasions is vitally important in ecology and especially epidemiology. Whether an organism can successfully invade and persist in the short-term is highly dependent on the spatial correlations that develop in the early stages of invasion. By modelling the correlations between individuals, we are able to understand the role of spatial heterogeneity in invasion dynamics without the need for large-scale computer simulations. Here, a natural methodology is developed for modelling the behaviour of individuals in a fixed network. This formulation is applied to the spread of a disease through a structured network to determine invasion thresholds and some statistical properties of a single epidemic.

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Authors: Keeling, M. J.
Affiliations: University of Cambridge (GB)
Corresponding author: Keeling, M. J.
ORCID: Keeling, M. J.
Venue: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences
Publisher: The Royal Society
Published: 1999-04-22
Volume: 266
Issue: 1421
Pages: 859-867
ISSN: 0080-4649 (ISSN-L)
0962-8452
1471-2954
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.1999.0716
PMC: PMC1689913
OpenAlex: W2030540141
Cited by: 798
References: 28
Citations by year: 2026: 19 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 19 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 30 · 2018: 44 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 35 · 2015: 47 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 41 · 2012: 38
FWCI: 9.92
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Locations: Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: Wellcome Trust
Topics: Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Statistical and Nonlinear Physics › Complex Network Analysis Techniques
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Mathematical Physics › Stochastic processes and statistical mechanics
Keywords: invasion threshold, spatial structure, spatial heterogeneity, epidemic spread, structured networks, disease transmission, agent-based modeling, spatial correlation, epidemic persistence
MeSH terms: Communicable Disease Control, Communicable Diseases, Disease Outbreaks, Ecology, Epidemiology, Humans, Models, Biological, Vaccination

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The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions

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