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Destabilization of epidemic models with the inclusion of realistic distributions of infectious periods
Open accessAbstract
Most mathematical models used to understand the dynamical patterns seen in the incidence of childhood viral diseases, such as measles, employ a simple, but epidemiologically unrealistic, description of the infection and recovery process. The inclusion of more realistic descriptions of the recovery process is shown to cause a significant destabilization of the model. When there is seasonal variation in discase transmission this destabilization leads to the appearance of complex dynamical patterns with much lower levels of seasonality than previously predicted. More generally this study illustrates how detailed dynamical properties of a model may depend in an important way on the assumptions made in the formulation of the model.
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Citations
Cites
The Theory of Stochastic Processes
Cox, D. R., Miller, H. D., Weiss, G., & Shuler, K. (1966) · Physics Today · doi:10.1063/1.3047872 · Cited by 3,324
Cited by
Epidemic processes in complex networks
Pastor-Satorras, R., Castellano, C., Van Mieghem, P., & Vespignani, A. (2015) · Reviews of Modern Physics · doi:10.1103/revmodphys.87.925 · Cited by 3,697
Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence
Lloyd-Smith, J. O., Schreiber, S. J., Kopp, P. E., & Getz, W. M. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04153 · Cited by 2,514
Appropriate Models for the Management of Infectious Diseases
Wearing, H. J., Rohani, P., & Keeling, M. J. (2005) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020174 · Cited by 533
Stochastic formulation of ecological models and their applications
Black, A. J., & McKane, A. J. (2012) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2012.01.014 · Cited by 255
Metadata
- Authors
- Lloyd, A. L.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2001-05-07
- Volume
- 268
- Issue
- 1470
- Pages
- 985-993
- ISSN
- 0080-4649 (ISSN-L)
- 0962-8452
- 1471-2954
- OpenAlex
- W2168437147
- Cited by
- 262
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 4.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Lloyd, A. L. (2001). Destabilization of epidemic models with the inclusion of realistic distributions of infectious periods. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2001.1599
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
