Early Computational Detection of Potential High Risk SARS-CoV-2 Variants

Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is leading to the discovery of hundreds of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants on a daily basis. While most variants do not impact the course of the pandemic, some variants pose a significantly increased risk when the acquired mutations allow better evasion of antibody neutralisation in previously infected or vaccinated subjects or increased transmissibility. Early detection of such high risk variants (HRVs) is paramount for the proper management of the pandemic. However, experimental assays to determine immune evasion and transmissibility characteristics of new variants are resource-intensive and time-consuming, potentially leading to delays in appropriate responses by decision makers. Here we present a novel in silico approach combining spike (S) protein structure modelling and large protein transformer language models on S protein sequences to accurately rank SARS-CoV-2 variants for immune escape and fitness potential. These metrics can be combined into an automated Early Warning System (EWS) capable of evaluating new variants in minutes and risk-monitoring variant lineages in near real-time. The system accurately pinpoints the putatively dangerous variants by selecting on average less than 0.3% of the novel variants each week. With only the S protein nucleotide sequence as input, the EWS detects HRVs earlier and with better precision than baseline metrics such as the growth metric (which requires real-world observations) or random sampling. Notably, Omicron BA.1 was flagged by the EWS on the day its sequence was made available. Additionally, our immune escape and fitness metrics were experimentally validated using in vitro pseudovirus-based virus neutralisation test (pVNT) assays and binding assays. The EWS flagged as potentially dangerous all 16 variants (Alpha-Omicron BA.1/2/4/5) designated by the World Health Organisation (WHO) with an average lead time of more than one and a half months ahead of them being designated as such. One-Sentence Summary: A COVID-19 Early Warning System combining structural modelling with machine learning to detect and monitor high risk SARS-CoV-2 variants, identifying all 16 WHO designated variants on average more than one and a half months in advance by selecting on average less than 0.3% of the weekly novel variants.