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Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Open accessAbstract
Global demand and consumption of agricultural crops for food, feed, and fuel is increasing at a rapid pace. This demand for plant materials has been expanding for many years. However, recent increases in meat consumption in emerging economies together with accelerating use of grain for biofuel production in developed countries have placed new pressures on global grain supplies. To satisfy the growing, worldwide demand for grain, two broad options are available: (1) The area under production can be increased or (2) productivity can be improved on existing farmland. These two options are not mutually exclusive and both will be employed to produce the additional 200 million tonnes/year of corn (Zea mays) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) estimated to be needed by 2017. Both options will alter the environmental footprint of farming. Of the two options, increasing productivity on existing agricultural land is preferable as it avoids greenhouse gas emissions and the large-scale disruption of existing ecosystems associated with bringing new land into production. In the United States, breeders, agronomists, and farmers have a documented history of increasing yield. U.S. average corn yields have increased from approximately 1.6 tonnes/ha in the first third of the 20th century to today's approximately 9.5 tonnes/ha. This dramatic yield improvement is due to the development and widespread use of new farming technologies such as hybrid corn, synthetic fertilizers, and farm machinery. The introduction of biotechnology traits and development of new breeding methodology using DNA-based markers are further improving yields. Outside the United States, similar farming practices have been adopted in some agricultural nations, but in many major grain-producing countries, yields still lag well behind world averages. By continuing to develop new farming technologies and deploying of them on a global basis, demand for feed, fuel, and food can be met without the commitment of large land areas to new production. Estimates of global meat consumption and grain-based biofuel production. A, Global meat consumption estimates from OECD-FAO (2008). Meat consumption outside of the OECD is expected to increase by 48 million tonnes/year in the next decade. B, Global grain-based biofuel production estimates from FAPRI (2008). Grain-based biofuel production is expected to increase by 28 billion liters/year in the next decade. Global corn and wheat production and consumption estimates from FAPRI's 2008 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook All values are in million tonnes/year. Global corn and wheat production and consumption estimates from FAPRI's 2008 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook All values are in million tonnes/year. The Food and Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) estimates that an additional 6 million ha of corn and 4 million ha of wheat plus a roughly 12% increase in global corn and wheat yields will be used to produce this additional 200 million tonnes of grain. Both increases in planted area and increases in yield are likely to be needed to meet global demand for grain. However, improving yield on existing agricultural land will have a lower environmental impact than bringing new land into production. Cultivation of new acreage requires land clearing and subsequent tillage that results in significant greenhouse gas emissions (Fargione et al., 2008) also has negative impacts upon biodiversity and water quality (Foley et al., 2005). Increasing the productivity of existing agricultural land will also have environmental consequences (Tilman et al., 2002), but the negative consequences are generally less onerous and in some cases can be positive, depending upon how the land was previously used. Increased use of nitrogen fertilizers, a concern with both methods of increasing production, can increase nitrous oxide emissions, reduce water quality, and increase the size of hypoxic zones (Donner and Kucharik, 2008). However, incremental yield increases can be achieved on existing agricultural land through conservation tillage or transgenic insect control. Conservation tillage can decrease erosion, conserve soil moisture, and increase soil organic matter (Lal, 2004), and transgenic insect control can reduce broad spectrum insecticide use (Qaim and Zilberman, 2003; Cattaneo et al., 2006). Annual corn yield averages and area planted in the United States and the world. Yield rate of gain in the United States from 1961 to 2007 was 0.11 tonnes ha−1 year−1. Global yield rate of gain was about half of this at 0.06 tonnes ha−1 year−1. Global corn area harvested has been increasing at the rate of 0.93 million ha/year. In the United States, corn area harvested increased by approximately 5 million ha in 2007 and 2008, although the long-term trend is much lower at 0.15 million ha/year (FAO, 2008). Lines indicate yield trend line. Average corn yields from high- and low-yielding countries Values are 5-year averages from 2003 to 2007 (FAO, 2008). Yield, harvested
Overview
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Global demand for corn and wheat for feed, food, and fuel is projected to require about 200 million tonnes/year more by 2017, and increasing productivity on existing farmland is preferable to expanding cropland. Advances in breeding, marker-assisted selection, biotechnology traits, and agronomic practices could substantially raise yields, potentially doubling U.S. corn yields over two decades.
Key findings
- FAPRI estimates an additional 200 million tonnes/year of corn and wheat will be needed by 2017, bringing total demand to approximately 1.5 billion tonnes/year; meeting this would require about 6 million additional ha of corn, 4 million additional ha of wheat, and a roughly 12% increase in global corn and wheat yields.
- Raising corn yields in the 10 largest below-average corn-producing countries to the world average of 4.9 tonnes/ha would produce an additional 100 million tonnes of corn, about 80% of projected growth in demand by 2017.
- U.S. average corn yields increased from approximately 1.6 tonnes/ha in the first third of the 20th century to approximately 9.5 tonnes/ha today; global average corn yield is 4.9 tonnes/ha, U.S. average is 9.4 tonnes/ha, and the 10 largest lower-yielding countries average 2.8 tonnes/ha.
- Marker-assisted breeding and biotechnology traits can improve rates of gain; in 2008 U.S. farmers planted 11 million ha of triple-stacked corn, which could increase U.S. corn supply by approximately 5% if 2005–2007 yield results are manifested, and the combination of technologies has the potential to double U.S. corn yields to approximately 20 tonnes/ha over the next two decades.
Methods
- Review/update synthesizing published data and projections from FAPRI’s 2008 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook, FAO 2008, OECD-FAO 2008, USDA sources, and Monsanto studies.
- Uses global and regional production, consumption, area, and yield data; genetic gain experiments with era hybrids; commercial corn and soybean populations; and multiyear field trials of biotechnology traits.
- Main analysis is descriptive and projection-based, comparing yields and extrapolating demand and yield trends; no new primary experimental design is reported.
Limitations
- Stated: climate change may increase night temperatures, adverse weather events, and pest/disease incidence and drag on yields; nitrogen may become less available as fertilizer costs rise and environmental concerns grow; a sharp global economic downturn could reduce demand and incentives to increase yields; wheat and rice lack large private breeding programs and need increased public support.
- Evident: the author and several data sources are Monsanto-affiliated, and the projections rely on company breeding and trait data plus adoption assumptions; no formal uncertainty or sensitivity analysis is reported.
- Evident: the 2017 and two-decade projections are scenario-based rather than validated outcomes.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Between 1935 and1990 this gap shrank from about 3.0 tonnes/ha to about 1.8 tonnes/ha.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“Results from a Monsanto Company study of a large number of commercial corn and soybean (Glycine max) populations indicated that use of markers can improve the rate of gain for yield and associated traits such as grain moisture and stalk lodging (Fig. 4; Eathington et al., 2007).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Eathington et al., 2007
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, as rates of gain derived from breeding have increased in recent years (Fig. 3B), this gap appears to have widened again.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Likewise, the suite of biotechnology traits currently used in commercial production in the United States increases average yields by protecting corn from the stress of competing pests and weeds (Fig. 5).”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By continuing to develop new farming technologies and deploying of them on a global basis, demand for feed, fuel, and food can be met without the commitment of large land areas to new production.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIn the paper
“During this same period, biofuel production from corn and, to a lesser extent, wheat is expected to grow by 28 billion liters to 67 billion liters/year (Fig. 1).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites FAPRI, 2008
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“Among urban Chinese, meat consumption rose from 25 kg person 21 year 21 to 32 kg person 21 year 21 between 1996and 2006(von Braun, 2007)).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites von Braun, 2007
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“Globally, meat consumption is expected to grow by 55 million tonnes to 310 million tonnes/year over the next decade (OECD-FAO, 2008).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites OECD-FAO, 2008
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“When food use for corn and wheat is added to the calculation, total demand for corn and wheat over the next decade is expected to increase by about 15% or about 200 million tonnes/year to a total of approximately 1.5 billion tonnes/year (Table I;FAPRI, 2008).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites FAPRI, 2008
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesNone of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Conservation tillage can decrease erosion, conserve soil moisture, and increase soil organic matter (Lal, 2004), and transgenic insect control can reduce broad spectrum insecticide use (Qaim and Zilberman, 2003;Cattaneo et al., 2006).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Qaim and Zilberman, 2003
- Not checked yetcites Cattaneo et al., 2006
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- It may state two separate claims as one. 20
- Probably not a substantial claim. 5
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Raising corn yields in the 10 largest, below average, corn-producing countries to just the world average will result in the production of an additional 100 million tonnes of corn or about 80% of the projected growth in demand by 2017.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Rising yields will markedly diminish the global need for new crop acreage.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Of the two options, increasing productivity on existing agricultural land is preferable as it avoids greenhouse gas emissions and the large-scale disruption of existing ecosystems associated with bringing new land into production.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Fargione et al., 2008
- Not checked yetcites Foley et al., 2005
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, recent increases in meat consumption in emerging economies together with accelerating use of grain for biofuel production in developed countries have placed new pressures on global grain supplies.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Global demand and consumption of agricultural crops for food, feed, and fuel is increasing at a rapid pace.”
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These two options are not mutually exclusive and both will be employed to produce the additional 200 million tonnes/year of corn (Zea mays) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) estimated to be needed by 2017.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Doubling U.S. average yields would raise average yields to approximately 20 tonnes/ha, values now seen rarely in nonirrigated corn.”
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Collectively, the next generation of biotechnology traits should contribute significantly to productivity on existing cropland, thereby increasing grain supplies and reduce the need to bring new land into production.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Cultivation of new acreage requires land clearing and subsequent tillage that results in significant greenhouse gas emissions (Fargione et al., 2008) also has negative impacts upon biodiversity and water quality (Foley et al., 2005).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Fargione et al., 2008
- Not checked yetcites Foley et al., 2005
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The Food and Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) estimates that an additional 6 million ha of corn and 4 million ha of wheat plus a roughly 12% increase in global corn and wheat yields will be used to produce this additional 200 million tonnes of grain.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites FAPRI, 2008
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Over the next two decades, climate change effects in the central United States are predicted to increase night air temperatures, the number and severity of adverse weather events, and increase the incidence of insect pests and disease.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hatfield et al., 2008
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Drought tolerance has the potential to ( 1) increase yields in drier areas, (2) increase average yields in rain-fed systems by reducing the effects of sporadic drought, and (3) decrease water requirements in irrigated systems.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The theoretical lightlimited maximum for corn yields in the United States has been estimated at approximately 25 tonnes/ha (Specht et al., 1999;Tollenaar and Lee, 2002), close to the 24.2 tonnes/ha recorded on a 2-ha plot by David Hula of Charles City, Virginia in the 2007 National Corn Growers Association Corn Yield Contest.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Specht et al., 1999
- Not checked yetcites Tollenaar and Lee, 2002
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Increased use of nitrogen fertilizers, a concern with both methods of increasing production, can increase nitrous oxide emissions, reduce water quality, and increase the size of hypoxic zones (Donner and Kucharik, 2008).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Donner and Kucharik, 2008
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both increases in planted area and increases in yield are likely to be needed to meet global demand for grain.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Conservation tillage can decrease erosion, conserve soil moisture, and increase soil organic matter (Lal, 2004), and transgenic insect control can reduce broad spectrum insecticide use (Qaim and Zilberman, 2003;Cattaneo et al., 2006).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Lal, 2004
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In contrast, corn yields in the 10 largest lower-yielding corn-producing countries are just 2.8 tonnes/ha (Table II; FAO, 2008), well below the global average.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites FAO, 2008
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Even if crop producers supported by the agricultural sector fall short of doubling yields, continued public and private investment in agricultural technology will lead to significant increases in productivity that will help supply the world's needs for food, meat, and energy in a sustainable fashion.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is encouraging, but yields in major grain-producing countries are nearly double the global average, suggesting that there is room for significant improvements in global yields.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A 10 tonnes/ha corn crop contains around 100 kg nitrogen/ha as protein and at least this amount of nitrogen must be added back to the field to maintain fertility.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This fact suggests that corn yields can be doubled without large increases in yield potential, although significant improvements in broad stress tolerance, water use efficiency, and broad dissemination of excellent agronomic practices will be required to approach the Hula yield on broad acreage.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The contribution of biotechnology traits to world corn supply will increase as they are used more widely.”
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Global corn yields average 4.9 tonnes/ha and have been increasing steadily for many years (Fig. 2).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites FAO, 2008
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Drought conditions strong enough to reduce yield will be seen on approximately 10% of the planted acres.
“Biotechnology contributions to yield from drought tolerance are estimated from data presented in Figure 6 and an assumption that drought conditions strong enough to reduce yield will be seen on approximately 10% of the planted acres.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Biotechnology trait adoption curves will follow those observed for current commercially available biotechnology traits.
“In each case biotechnology trait adoption curves such as those observed for current commercially available biotechnology traits are assumed (Monsanto, 2008).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Three new yield-enhancing biotechnology traits with effects similar to those described by Padgette (2008) will be introduced over the course of the next decade.
“Biotechnology contributions from yield-enhancing transgenes assume the introduction of three new biotechnology traits with effects similar to those described by Padgette (2008) over the course of the next decade.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Agronomic contributions to the rate of yield improvement will proceed at current historical rates.
“Agronomic (planting density, fertilizer use efficiency, improvements in soil management) contributions to the rate of yield improvement are considered to proceed at current historical rates based on estimates in Duvick (2005).”
The paper relies on this without support.
Rising yields will markedly diminish the global need for new crop acreage.
“Implicit in this scenario is the idea that rising yields will markedly diminish the global need for new crop acreage.”
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“There are, of course, many examples (e.g.Lippman and Tanksley, 2001;Hill, 2005;Edgerton, 2009;Johansson et al., 2010) that show the huge variation in phenotype achievable in agricultural breeding populations”
From Breeding crop plants with deep roots: their role in sustainable carbon, nutrient and water sequestration (2011) · cites this paper as Edgerton, 2009
Citations
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Metadata
- Authors
- Edgerton, M. D.
- Affiliations
- Monsanto (United States) (US)
- Corresponding author
- Edgerton, Michael D.
- Venue
- Plant Physiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2009-01-01
- Volume
- 149
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 7-13
- ISSN
- 0032-0889 (ISSN-L)
- 1532-2548
- PMC
- PMC2613695
- OpenAlex
- W2114522764
- Semantic Scholar
- 5e4e49409e8344f006b3064a983cc6afe426c391
- Cited by
- 513
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 28 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 37 · 2019: 43 · 2018: 36 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 23 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 39 · 2013: 25 · 2012: 35
- FWCI
- 4.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model (vor)
- Locations
- PLANT PHYSIOLOGY (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Crop Yield and Soil Fertility
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Agricultural Productivity and Crop Improvement
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- crop productivity, grain yield improvement, maize yield, wheat yield, biofuels, meat consumption, land expansion, greenhouse gas emissions, maize hybrids, mineral fertilizers, DNA markers, agricultural technology adoption, food security, feed demand, emerging markets, yield gap
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Animal Feed, Zea mays, United States, Triticum, Crops, Agricultural
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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