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The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques
Abstract
Purpose: The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. Design/methodology/approach: The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes. Findings: The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each. Practical implications: Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques. Originality/value: Scenario development is the stock‐in‐trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.
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Citations
Cited by
Amer, M., Daim, T. U., & Jetter, A. (2013) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003 · Cited by 1,015
How are foresight methods selected?
Popper, R. (2008) · Foresight · doi:10.1108/14636680810918586 · Cited by 454
Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling
DeCarolis, J., Daly, H., Dodds, P., Keppo, I., Li, F., McDowall, W., Pye, S., Strachan, N., Trutnevyte, E., Usher, W., et al. (2017) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.03.001 · Cited by 389
Milakis, D., Snelder, M., Arem, B. V., Wee, B. V., & Homem de Almeida Correia, G. (2017) · European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research · doi:10.18757/ejtir.2017.17.1.3180 · Cited by 194
Poth, A., Wildegger, A., & Levien, D.-A. (2024) · Communications in Computer and Information Science · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-71142-8_12 · Cited by 8
Metadata
- Authors
- Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T.
- Venue
- Foresight
- Publisher
- Emerald
- Published
- 2007-02-27
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 5-25
- ISSN
- 1463-6689 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2162942990
- Cited by
- 813
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 35.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
