The DOI matches its Crossref record.
Prognostics, the real issues involved with predicting life remaining
Abstract
This paper reviews the fundamentals of prognostics with emphasis on the estimation of remaining life and the interrelationships between accuracy, precision and confidence. A distinction is made between the static view of failure distributions derived from historical data and the dynamic view of remaining life derived from condition. The nonstationary nature of prognoses is illustrated using data from a failing SH-60 helicopter gearbox. A method is demonstrated that measures the accuracy and uncertainty of remaining life estimates using example prognostic features. This method isolates the uncertainty attributable to features and their interpretation from the uncertainty due to the random variables that govern the physics of component failure. Results from the example features support a hypothesized trend of improved accuracy and lower uncertainty as remaining life decreases.
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Cited by
A review on machinery diagnostics and prognostics implementing condition-based maintenance
Jardine, A. K. S., Lin, D., & Banjevic, D. (2006) · Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing · doi:10.1016/j.ymssp.2005.09.012 · Cited by 4,816
Tahan, M., Tsoutsanis, E., Muhammad, M., & Abdul Karim, Z. A. (2017) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.04.048 · Cited by 482
Da, Y., Shi, X., & Krishnamurthy, M. (2011) · 2011 IEEE Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference · doi:10.1109/vppc.2011.6043248 · Cited by 96
Practical aspects of machine diagnostics accuracy
Orkisz, M. (2017) · 2017 IEEE 11th International Symposium on Diagnostics for Electrical Machines, Power Electronics and Drives (SDEMPED) · doi:10.1109/demped.2017.8062365 · Cited by 1
Metadata
- Authors
- Engel, S. J., Gilmartin, B. J., Bongort, K., & Hess, A.
- Venue
- 2000 IEEE Aerospace Conference. Proceedings (Cat. No.00TH8484)
- Publisher
- IEEE
- Published
- 2002-11-08
- Volume
- 6
- Pages
- 457-469
- ISSN
- 1095-323X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2099635155
- Cited by
- 263
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 23.75
- Type
- conference paper
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Prognostics, the real issues involved with predicting life remaining. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1109/aero.2000.877920
- The paper
- Engel, S. J., Gilmartin, B. J., Bongort, K., & Hess, A. (2002). Prognostics, the real issues involved with predicting life remaining. 2000 IEEE Aerospace Conference. Proceedings (Cat. No.00TH8484). https://doi.org/10.1109/aero.2000.877920
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Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
