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Cited by 499

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 7 of the 7 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival

Hurd, Michael D., McGarry, Kathleen·2002·The Economic Journal
DOI 10.1111/1468-0297.00065
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Abstract

Although expectations, or more precisely subjective probability distributions, play a prominent role in models of decision making under uncertainty, we have had very little data on them. Based on panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, we study the evolution of subjective survival probabilities and their ability to predict actual mortality. In panel, respondents modify their survival probabilities in response to new information such as the onset of a new disease condition. Subjective survival probabilities predict actual survival: those who survived in the panel reported survival probabilities approximately 50% greater at baseline than those who died.

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Metadata

Authors
Hurd, M. D., & McGarry, K.
Venue
The Economic Journal
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2002-10-01
Volume
112
Issue
482
Pages
966-985
ISSN
  • 0013-0133 (ISSN-L)
  • 1468-0297
DOI
10.1111/1468-0297.00065
OpenAlex
W2889822609
Cited by
499
References
7
FWCI
9.02
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1111/1468-0297.00065
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Hurd, M. D., & McGarry, K. (2002). The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival. The Economic Journal. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00065

Data sources

Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.