Would you like to shrink the welfare state? A survey of European citizens

Abstract

Welfare state reform A survey of what Europeans want The fundamental problems facing European welfare states – high unemployment and unsustainable public pensions plans in particular – have been in the political debate for years, so why have we seen so little reform? To find out, we surveyed the opinions of citizens in France, Germany, Italy and Spain on their welfare states and on various reform options. This is what we found. First, most workers underestimate the costs of public pensions, though they are aware of their unsustainability. Second, the status quo is a majoritarian outcome: a majority of citizens opposes cuts to social security and welfare spending, but also opposes further increases. Since population ageing without reform implies an automatic expansion, our results suggest that most citizens would favour reforms that stabilize but do not shrink the current welfare states. Third, many would welcome changes in the allocation of benefits. A large number of workers in Italy and Germany would be willing to opt out of public pensions and replace them with private pensions, though the details of how this scheme is formulated matter for its popularity. And many Italians and Spaniards would welcome an extension of the coverage of unemployment insurance. Fourth, conflicts over the welfare state are mainly shaped by the economic situation of the respondent, while political ideology plays a limited role. Disagreements are found along three dimensions: young versus old, rich versus poor, and ‘outsider’ versus ‘insider’ in terms of labour market status. From a practical point of view, this suggests that there is scope to bundle reforms strategically in order to build a large and mixed coalition of supporters. — Tito Boeri, Axel Börsch‐Supan and Guido Tabellini