The DOI matches its Crossref record; 4 of the 4 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market
Open accessAbstract
The excess return in the stock market is higher under Democratic than Republican presidencies: 9 percent for the value‐weighted and 16 percent for the equal‐weighted portfolio. The difference comes from higher real stock returns and lower real interest rates, is statistically significant, and is robust in subsamples. The difference in returns is not explained by business‐cycle variables related to expected returns, and is not concentrated around election dates. There is no difference in the riskiness of the stock market across presidencies that could justify a risk premium. The difference in returns through the political cycle is therefore a puzzle.
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Cites
Bootstrap Methods and their Application
Davison, A. C., & Hinkley, D. V. (1997) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511802843 · Cited by 7,350
FAMA, E. F. (1991) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04636.x · Cited by 5,350
Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy
Hibbs, D. A. (1977) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055400269712 · Cited by 3,368
Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement
Hodrick, R. J. (1992) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/5.3.351 · Cited by 1,523
Cited by
Hsu, P.-H., Li, K., & Tsou, C.-Y. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3578215 · Cited by 665
Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity: Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections
Çolak, G., Durnev, A., & Qian, Y. (2017) · Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis · doi:10.1017/s0022109017000862 · Cited by 486
Metadata
- Authors
- Santa‐Clara, P., & Valkanov, R.
- Venue
- The Journal of Finance
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2003-09-11
- Volume
- 58
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 1841-1872
- ISSN
- 0022-1082 (ISSN-L)
- 1540-6261
- OpenAlex
- W2107306255
- Cited by
- 596
- References
- 4
- FWCI
- 18.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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