Income and Population Growth
Open accessAbstract
Do populations grow as countries become richer? In this study we estimate the effects on population growth of shocks to national income that are plausibly exogenous and unlikely to be driven by technological change. For a panel of over 139 countries spanning the period 1960–2007, we interact changes in international oil prices with countries’ average net-export shares of oil in GDP. Controlling for country and time fixed effects, we find that this measure of oil price induced income growth is positively associated with population growth. The IV estimates indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in GDP per capita growth over a 10-year period increases countries’ population growth by around 0.1 percentage points. Furthermore, we find that this population effect results from both a positive effect on fertility and a negative effect on infant and child mortality.
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This result is consistent with the Beckerian view that children are a normal good in parents' preferences and confirms recent results from Lindo (2010), Black et al. (2013), and Brueckner and Schwandt (2015).
“This result is consistent with the Beckerian view that children are a normal good in parents preferences and conrms recent results from Lindo (2010), Black et al. (2013), and Brueckner and Schwandt (2015).”
From Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes (2019) · cites this paper as Brueckner and Schwandt (2015)
The oil shock variable has permanent effects on the level of per-capita GDP, which justify its use as an instrument for per-capita income in this paper.
“This variable ( oil shock ) has permanent e/ects on the level of per-capita GDP, which justify its use as an instrument for per-capita income in this paper.”
From Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes (2019) · cites this paper as Brueckner and Schwandt, 2015
Brueckner and Schwandt (2015) estimate the causal effect of per-capita income's rate of growth on population growth.
“Brueckner and Schwandt, (2015) estimate the casual e/ect of per-capita income s rate of growth on population growth.”
From Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes (2019) · cites this paper as Brueckner and Schwandt, (2015)
Cites
Do natural resources fuel authoritarianism? A reappraisal of the resource curse
HABER, S., & MENALDO, V. (2011) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055410000584 · Cited by 1,128 · cited 2× · see citing works
“Haber and Menaldo (2011) and Haber et al. (2003) make a similar argument, pointing out that oil discoveries are correlated with predetermined country characteristics.”
BackgroundToward A Restatement of Demographic Transition Theory
Caldwell, J. C. (1976) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.2307/1971615 · Cited by 1,005 · see citing works
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Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes
Papagni, E. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3522996 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
- Authors
- Brueckner, M., & Schwandt, H.
- Affiliations
- National University of Singapore
- Princeton University (US)
- ORCID
- Schwandt, Hannes
- Venue
- The Economic Journal
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2014-09-01
- Volume
- 125
- Issue
- 589
- Pages
- 1653-1676
- ISSN
- 0013-0133 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W572934935
- Cited by
- 65
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 2 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 10.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Economic Journal (publishedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (acceptedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)
- Funders
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/M010341/1)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
- Keywords
- population growth, income growth, GDP per capita, oil prices, fertility, infant mortality, child mortality, cross-country panel data
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