Global trade will accelerate plant invasions in emerging economies under climate change
Open accessAbstract
Trade plays a key role in the spread of alien species and has arguably contributed to the recent enormous acceleration of biological invasions, thus homogenizing biotas worldwide. Combining data on 60‐year trends of bilateral trade, as well as on biodiversity and climate, we modeled the global spread of plant species among 147 countries. The model results were compared with a recently compiled unique global data set on numbers of naturalized alien vascular plant species representing the most comprehensive collection of naturalized plant distributions currently available. The model identifies major source regions, introduction routes, and hot spots of plant invasions that agree well with observed naturalized plant numbers. In contrast to common knowledge, we show that the ‘imperialist dogma,’ stating that Europe has been a net exporter of naturalized plants since colonial times, does not hold for the past 60 years, when more naturalized plants were being imported to than exported from Europe. Our results highlight that the current distribution of naturalized plants is best predicted by socioeconomic activities 20 years ago. We took advantage of the observed time lag and used trade developments until recent times to predict naturalized plant trajectories for the next two decades. This shows that particularly strong increases in naturalized plant numbers are expected in the next 20 years for emerging economies in megadiverse regions. The interaction with predicted future climate change will increase invasions in northern temperate countries and reduce them in tropical and (sub)tropical regions, yet not by enough to cancel out the trade‐related increase.
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A study combining data on 60-year trends of bilateral trade among 147 countries with trends in biodiversity and climate showed particularly strong increases in established plant numbers expected in the next 20 years for emerging economies in megadiverse regions.
“A study combining data on 60‐year trends of bilateral trade among 147 countries with trends in biodiversity and climate showed particularly strong increases in established plant numbers expected in the next 20 years for emerging economies in megadiverse regions.”
From Scientists' warning on invasive alien species (2020) · cites this paper as Seebens et al., 2015
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe interaction with predicted future climate change will increase invasions in northern temperate countries and reduce invasions in tropical and subtropical regions, but not sufficiently to balance the trade-related increase in the latter.
“The interaction with predicted future climate change will increase invasions in northern temperate countries and reduce invasions in tropical and subtropical regions, but not sufficiently to balance the trade‐related increase in the latter (Seebens et al., 2015).”
From Scientists' warning on invasive alien species (2020) · cites this paper as Seebens et al., 2015
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- Authors
- Seebens, H., Essl, F., Dawson, W., Fuentes, N., Moser, D., Pergl, J., Pyšek, P., van Kleunen, M., Weber, E., Winter, M., & Blasius, B.
- Affiliations
- University of Vienna (AT)
- University of Konstanz (DE)
- University of Concepción (CL)
- Czech Academy of Sciences (CZ)
- Ecology University of Konstanz Universitätsstrasse 10 78457 Konstanz Germany
- University of Potsdam (DE)
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DE)
- Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Seebens, Hanno
- ORCID
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2015-09-22
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 4128-4140
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W2139080642
- Cited by
- 419
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 40 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 49 · 2022: 48 · 2021: 53 · 2020: 51 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 29 · 2017: 31 · 2016: 21 · 2015: 1
- FWCI
- 28.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- KOPS (University of Konstanz) (submittedVersion)
- SUNScholar (Stellenbosch University) (submittedVersion)
- ASEP (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- publish.UP (University of Potsdam) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- California Department of Fish and Game (AZ DA 1502/1‐1, KL 1866/5‐1, KL 1866/9‐1)
- Akademie věd České Republiky
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Botany and Plant Ecology Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Keywords
- biological invasions, naturalized plants, plant trade, bilateral trade, emerging markets, introduction routes
- MeSH terms
- Commerce, Developing Countries, Models, Theoretical, Biodiversity, Climate Change, Introduced Species, Plant Dispersal
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