Spatiotemporal assessment of farm‐gate production costs and economic potential of Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum L., and Jatropha grown on marginal land in China
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Spatially explicit farm‐gate production costs and the economic potential of three types of energy crops grown on available marginal land in China for 2017 and 2040 were investigated using a spatial accounting method and construction of cost–supply curves. The average farm‐gate cost from all available marginal land was calculated as 32.9 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 27.5 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 32.4 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 909 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. The costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass were predicted to decrease by approximately 11%‐15%, whereas the cost of Jatropha was expected to increase by 5% in 2040. The cost of Jatropha varies significantly from 193 to 9,477 CNY/GJ across regions because of the huge differences in yield across regions. The economic potential of the marginal land was calculated as 28.7 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 4.0 EJ/year at a cost of less than 30 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 29.6 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 0.1 EJ/year at a cost of less than 500 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. It is not feasible to develop Jatropha production on marginal land based on existing technologies, given its high production costs. Therefore, the Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode is the most economical way, because it achieves the highest economic potential compared with other modes. The sensitivity analysis showed that the farm‐gate costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass are most sensitive to uncertainties associated with yield reduction and harvesting costs, while, for Jatropha, the unpredictable yield has the greatest impact on its farm‐gate cost. This study can help policymakers and industrial stakeholders make strategic and tactical bioenergy development plans in China (exchange rate in 2017: 1€ = 7.63￥; all the joules in this paper are higher heat value).
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The marginal land area available for energy crop cultivation in China was estimated at 184.9 Mha, accounting for 19.2% of the total land area.
“It is estimated that the marginal land area available for energy crop cultivation was 184.9Mha accounting for 19.2% of the total land area in China (Zhang, Hastings, et al., 2020).”
From Marginal land conversion to perennial energy crops with biomass removal enhances soil carbon sequestration (2022) · cites this paper as Zhang, Hastings, et al., 2020
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Self-citationCarbon negative biofuels: a step ahead of carbon neutrality
Sharma, T., Chauhan, P. S., Patel, M., Singh, A., Kaur, M., Chauhan, G., Rana, B. B., Kumar, N., & Walia, A. (2025) · Biofuels · doi:10.1080/17597269.2025.2450156 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
- Authors
- Zhang, B., Hastings, A., Clifton‐Brown, J. C., Jiang, D., & Faaij, A. P. C.
- Affiliations
- University of Groningen (NL)
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences (IBERS) Aberystwyth University Aberystwyth UK
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen University of Groningen Groningen The Netherlands
- Corresponding author
- Zhang, Bingquan
- Venue
- GCB Bioenergy
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2020-03-06
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 310-327
- ISSN
- 1757-1693 (ISSN-L)
- 1757-1707
- PMC
- PMC7217200
- OpenAlex
- W2995173142
- Cited by
- 20
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 1
- FWCI
- 3.16
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- GCB Bioenergy (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
- Chinese Academy of Sciences
- China Scholarship Council (201606350028)
- Directorate for Biological Sciences
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/M019691/1, 1806209, NE/P019951/1, NE/P019803/1)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanics of Materials › Forest Biomass Utilization and Management
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Bioeconomy and Sustainability Development
- Keywords
- energy crops, Miscanthus × giganteus, switchgrass, Jatropha, marginal land, bioenergy, economic potential, yield uncertainty, bioenergy policy, China
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