Prediction model for the incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence: evidence for a cohort-dependent increase within the next two decades in Germany
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To provide data on type 1 diabetes (T1D) epidemiology in childhood over a period of 20 years and to predict prevalence and cohort-age-specific incidence rates (IRs) for the next two decades in Germany. METHODS: The Baden-Wuerttemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY) includes children and adolescents below 15 years of age with new onset of T1D (period 1987-2006, n = 5108 cases). RESULTS: The mean age- and sex-standardized IR was 15.3/100 000/year (95% CI 14.8-15.7) and the average increase in the IR was 4.4% per year (95% CI 3.9-4.9). Within the next 20 years (2007-2026), the risk for developing diabetes will increase like the square of a linear function with calendar year for all age ranges. There is a strong correlation between the predicted IRs of the cohorts and the observed IRs (n = 300; root mean square error = 0.56; r(2) = 0.71) and a negative correlation between mean age at onset and T1D IR (p = 0.02). On 31 December 2006, the prevalence of T1D was 0.126% (95% CI 0.121-0.132). The predicted prevalence (end of 2026) is estimated to be 0.265% (95% CI 0.25-0.28; predicted cases: n = 2950; 95% CI 2900-3000). CONCLUSIONS: In comparison to observations made in the past, the risk of disease rises even faster than expected: The younger the child, the quicker the increase of the cohort-age-specific IR and the higher the risk for T1D during lifetime.
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In Finland, Germany, and Norway, annual increases in incidence of type 1 diabetes of 2·4%, 2·6%, and 3·3%, respectively, have been reported.
“In Finland, Germany, and Norway, annual increases in incidence of 2·4%, 2·6%, and 3·3%, respectively, have been reported.16,19,20”
From Type 1 diabetes (2014) · cites this paper as [20]
The citation appears to be offered for the German figure. The Results (p. 15) report an average annual increase of 4.4% in the Baden-Württemberg childhood type 1 diabetes registry during 1987–2006, not 2.6%. The Discussion (page unavailable) repeats 4.4%; the paper does not establish the claimed 2.6% German rate. (LLM, conf=0.85)
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Cited by
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Atkinson, M. A., Eisenbarth, G. S., & Michels, A. W. (2014) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(13)60591-7 · Cited by 2,713 · see citing works
Chobot, A., Polanska, J., Brandt, A., Deja, G., Glowinska‐Olszewska, B., Pilecki, O., Szadkowska, A., Mysliwiec, M., & Jarosz‐Chobot, P. (2017) · Diabetic Medicine · doi:10.1111/dme.13345 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
- Authors
- Ehehalt, S., Dietz, K., Willasch, A. M., Neu, A., & for the DIARY-Group Baden-Wuerttemberg
- Affiliations
- University Children's Hospital Tübingen (DE)
- University of Tübingen (DE)
- Goethe University Frankfurt (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Neu, Andreas
- Venue
- Pediatric Diabetes
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2011-08-03
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 15-20
- ISSN
- 1399-543X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2028142192
- Cited by
- 50
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 2.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Pediatric Diabetes (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Keywords
- type 1 diabetes, pediatric diabetes, adolescent diabetes, incidence, prevalence, incidence forecasting, age of onset
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Child, Child, Preschool, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1, Female, Forecasting, Germany, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Sex Factors, Models, Statistical, Cohort Studies, Cohort Effect, Incidence, Prevalence, Age of Onset, Age Distribution
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