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A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path‐dependency in Integration
Abstract
This paper uses a gravity model to forecast the potential impact on trade balances and trade patterns of the 2004 EU enlargement. The results suggest that gross trade creation for the accession economies is about 25 per cent of their 2003 trade. Although membership of the EU creates trade it also results in trade diversion; that is, a declining share of accession country exports and imports with non‐EU15 countries. Overall, the trade balances of the accession countries suffer larger trade deficits after accession due to import growth surpassing export growth. The extent of increase in the trade deficit due to accession is inversely related to the level of integration and income of the new members. Hence integration is path‐dependent and the EU should take this into account when preparing for further enlargements to the Balkans and Southeast Europe.
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Research works printed but not linked: 11
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Cited by
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REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND INTRA OIC TRADE: LESSONS FROM INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA
Wardani, D. T. K. (2016) · Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan · doi:10.18196/jesp.17.1.2456 · Cited by 6
“To support the argument of relative distance, Sohn (2005) and Papazoglou et al. (2006) argued that firms in exporting countries may prefer to trade with neighboring countries for cultural or historical reasons because, to a certain extent, this will lower the cost of doing business.”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Papazoglou, C., Pentecost, E. J., & Marques, H.
- Affiliations
- Loughborough University (GB)
- ORCID
- Pentecost, Eric J.
- Venue
- The World Economy
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2006-07-12
- Volume
- 29
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 1077-1089
- ISSN
- 0378-5920 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-9701
- OpenAlex
- W1980541625
- Cited by
- 77
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 3 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 2 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 12.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- World Economy (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Strategy and Management › Global Trade and Competitiveness
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › European Union Policy and Governance
- Keywords
- EU enlargement, EU enlargement 2004, trade creation, trade diversion, trade balance, trade deficit, path dependence, economic integration, gravity model, Balkans, Southeastern Europe
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path‐dependency in Integration. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2006.00834.x
- The paper
- Papazoglou, C., Pentecost, E. J., & Marques, H. (2006). A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path‐dependency in Integration. The World Economy. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2006.00834.x
