The Effect of High School Socioeconomic Status on the Predictive Validity of SAT Scores and High School Grade-Point Average: Effect of High School SES on the Predictive Validity of SAT Scores
Abstract
Research has often found that, when high school grades and SAT scores are used to predict first-year college grade-point average (FGPA) via regression analysis, African-American and Latino students, are, on average, predicted to earn higher FGPAs than they actually do. Under various plausible models, this phenomenon can be explained in terms of the unreliability of predictor variables. Attributing overprediction to measurement error, however, is not fully satisfactory: Might the measurement errors in the predictor variables be systematic in part, and could they be reduced? The research hypothesis in the current study was that the overprediction of Latino and African-American performance occurs, at least in part, because these students are more likely than White students to attend high schools with fewer resources. The study provided some support for this hypothesis and showed that the prediction of college grades can be improved using information about high school socioeconomic status. An interesting peripheral finding was that grades provided by students’ high schools were stronger predictors of FGPA than were students’ self-reported high school grades. Correlations between the two types of high school grades (computed for each of 18 colleges) ranged from .59 to .85.
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The magnitudes of Black overprediction observed here (mean residuals = -.24 for HSGPA-only, -.11 combined) are consistent with estimates from a similar prior study (-.25 and -.12).
“The magnitudes of Black overprediction observed here (mean residuals = -.24 for HSGPAonly, -.11 combined) are consistent with estimates from a similar prior study (-.25 and -.12; Zwick & Himelfarb, 2011)”
From An Omitted Variables Approach to Disentangling Differential Prediction in College Admissions (2026) · cites this paper as Zwick & Himelfarb, 2011
Prior work suggests individual and school SES are not merely at different levels of the same construct and may exert independent effects on educational outcomes.
“Prior work suggests individual and school SES are not merely at different levels of the same construct and may exert inde-pendent effects on educational outcomes (Tan et al., 2025;Zwick & Himelfarb, 2011).”
From An Omitted Variables Approach to Disentangling Differential Prediction in College Admissions (2026) · cites this paper as Zwick & Himelfarb, 2011
Zwick and Himelfarb (2011) found that including an index of students' average high school SES in a regression model predicting first-year college GPA from high school grades and SAT scores substantially reduced the magnitude of differential prediction for Black students.
“Zwick and Himelfarb (2011) found that including an index of students' average high school SES, which was measured as an aggregate of parental education and neighborhood poverty indices, in a regression model predicting first-year college GPA from high school grades and SAT scores substantially reduced the magnitude of differential prediction for Black students.”
From An Omitted Variables Approach to Disentangling Differential Prediction in College Admissions (2026) · cites this paper as Zwick and Himelfarb (2011)
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Allensworth, E. M., & Clark, K. (2020) · Educational Researcher · doi:10.3102/0013189x20902110 · Cited by 198 · see citing works
An Omitted Variables Approach to Disentangling Differential Prediction in College Admissions
Demeke, S., Sackett, P. R., Kuncel, N. R., & Lee, S. D. (2026) · Educational Measurement: Issues and Practice · doi:10.1111/emip.70048
- Authors
- Zwick, R., & Himelfarb, I.
- Affiliations
- Educational Testing Service (US)
- University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Educational Measurement
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2011-06
- Volume
- 48
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 101-121
- ISSN
- 0022-0655 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1566475222
- Cited by
- 65
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 17.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Educational Measurement (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Higher Education Research Studies
- Social Sciences › Education › Educational Outcomes and Influences
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Keywords
- predictive validity, SAT scores, high school grade point average, measurement error, overprediction, African American students, Hispanic students
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