Cited by 185Housing Market and EconomicsStochastic processes and financial applicationsEconomic theories and models

Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: A Closed‐Form Solution

Open access
AGARWAL, SUMIT, DRISCOLL, JOHN C., LAIBSON, DAVID I.·2013·Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

Abstract

We derive the first closed‐form optimal refinancing rule: refinance when the current mortgage interest rate falls below the original rate by at least urn:x-wiley:00222879:jmcb12017:equation:jmcb12017-math-0001 In this formula W (.) is (the principal branch of) the Lambert W ‐function, urn:x-wiley:00222879:jmcb12017:equation:jmcb12017-math-0002 urn:x-wiley:00222879:jmcb12017:equation:jmcb12017-math-0003 where ρ is the real discount rate, λ is the expected real rate of exogenous mortgage repayment, σ is the standard deviation of the mortgage rate, is the ratio of the tax‐adjusted refinancing cost and the remaining mortgage value, and τ is the marginal tax rate. This expression is derived by solving a tractable class of refinancing problems. Our quantitative results closely match those reported by researchers using numerical methods.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1111/jmcb.12017

Cites

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

No references could be resolved yet.

Research works printed but not linked: 31

  1. Agarwal Sumit Chang Yan Yavas Abdullah Adverse Selection in Mortgage Securitization Journal of Financial Economics 2012 105 640 660
  2. Archer Wayne Ling David Pricing Mortgage-Backed Securities: In-tegrating Optimal Call and Empirical Models of Prepayment Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association 1993 21 373 404
  3. — Structural Change in the Mortgage Market and the Propensity to Refinance Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 2001 33 955 975
  4. Campbell John Household Finance Journal of Finance 2006 56 1553 1604
  5. Caplin Andrew Freeman Charles Tracy Joseph Collateral Damage: Refinancing Constraints and Regional Recessions Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 29 497 516
  6. Chen Andrew Ling David Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Stochastic Interest Rates AREUEA Journal 1989 17 278 299
  7. Dickinson Amy Hueson Andrea Mortgage Prepayments: Past and Present Journal of Real Estate Literature 1994 2 11 33
  8. Dunn Kenneth B. McConnell John A Comparison of Alternative Models of Pricing GNMA Mortgage-Backed Securities Journal of Finance 1981 36 375 92
  9. Follain James R. Scott Louis O. Tyler Yang TL Microfoundations of a Mortgage Prepayment Function Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 1992 5 197 217
  10. Follain James R. Tzang Dan-Nein The Interest Rate Differential and Refinancing a Home Mortgage The Appraisal Journal 1988 61 243 251
  11. Giliberto SM Thibodeau TG Modeling Conventional Residential Mortgage Refinancing Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 1989 2 285 299
  12. Green Jerry Shoven John B. The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayment Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 1986 18 41 59
  13. Green Richard K. LaCour-Little Michael Some Truths about Ostriches: Who Doesn’t Prepay Their Mortgages and Why They Don’t Journal of Housing Economics 1999 8 233 248
  14. Hayre Lakhbir S. Chaudhary Sharad Young Robert A. Anatomy of Prepayments The Journal of Fixed Income 2000 10 19 49
  15. Hendershott Patrick van Order Robert Pricing Mortgages–An Interpretation of the Models and Results Journal of Financial Services Research 1987 1 19 55
  16. — Stafford Frank Home is Where the Equity is: Mortgage Refinancing and Household Consumption Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2004 36 985 1014
  17. Kalotay Andrew Yang Deane Fabozzi Frank J. An Option-Theoretic Prepayment Model for Mortgages and Mortgage-Backed Securities International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 2004 7 949 978
  18. — Refunding Efficiency: a generalized approach Applied Financial Economics Letters 2007 3 141 146
  19. — Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: Application of Bond Valuation Tools to Household Risk Management Applied Financial Economics Letters 2008 4 141 149
  20. Kau James Keenan Donald An Overview of the Option-Theoretic Pricing of Mortgages Journal of Housing Research 1995 6 217 244
  21. Keys Benjamin Mukherjee Tanmoy Seru Amit Vig Vikrant Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans Quarterly Journal of Economics 2010 125 307 362
  22. LaCour-Little Michael Another Look at the Role of Borrower Characteristics in Predicting Mortgage Prepayments Journal of Housing Research 1999 10 45 60
  23. — The Evolving Role of Technology in Mortgage Finance Journal of Housing Research 2000 11 173 205
  24. Li Minqiang Pearson Neil D. Poteshman Allen M. Conditional Estimation of Diffusion Processes J ournal of Financial Economics 2004 74 31 66
  25. Miller Merton H. Leverage The Journal of Finance 1991 46 479 488
  26. Richard Scott F. Roll Richard Prepayments on Fixed-Rate Mortgage-Backed Securities Journal of Portfolio Management 1989 15 73 82
  27. Schwartz Eduardo S. Torous Walter N. Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage Pass-Through Securities Journal of Finance 1989 44 375 392
  28. — Prepayment, Default, and the Valuation of Mortgage Pass-Through Securities Journal of Business 1992 65 221 239
  29. — Mortgage Prepayment and Default Decision: A Poisson Regression Approach Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association 1993 21 431 449
  30. Stanton Richard Rational Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities Review of Financial Studies 1995 8 677 708
  31. Yang T.L. Tyler Maris Brian A. Mortgage Refinancing with Asymmetric Information Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association 1993 21 481 510

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
AGARWAL, S., DRISCOLL, J. C., & LAIBSON, D. I.
Affiliations
  • National University of Singapore (SG)
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors (US)
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
Corresponding author
LAIBSON, DAVID I.
Venue
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2013-05-17
Volume
45
Issue
4
Pages
591-622
ISSN
  • 0022-2879 (ISSN-L)
  • 1538-4616
OpenAlex
W3124856600
Cited by
185
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 12 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 16 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 2
FWCI
32.08
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Journal of money credit and banking (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • National University of Singapore (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (0527516)
  • National Institute on Aging (AG005842, P01AG005842, P30AG034532)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Housing Market and Economics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Stochastic processes and financial applications
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic theories and models
Keywords
mortgage refinancing, analytical solution, Lambert W function, mortgage interest rates, refinancing costs, marginal tax rates, housing finance

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review