Nonstandard Errors
Open accessAbstract
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data‐generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence‐generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty—nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer‐review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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- Authors
- MENKVELD, A. J., DREBER, A., HOLZMEISTER, F., HUBER, J., JOHANNESSON, M., KIRCHLER, M., NEUSÜß, S., RAZEN, M., WEITZEL, U., ABAD‐DÍAZ, D., ABUDY, M. (., ADRIAN, T., AIT‐SAHALIA, Y., AKMANSOY, O., ALCOCK, J. T., ALEXEEV, V., ALOOSH, A., AMATO, L., AMAYA, D., ANGEL, J. J., AVETIKIAN, A. T., BACH, A., BAIDOO, E., BAKALLI, G., BAO, L., BARBON, A., BASHCHENKO, O., BINDRA, P. C., BJØNNES, G. H., BLACK, J. R., BLACK, B. S., BOGOEV, D., CORREA, S. B., BONDARENKO, O., BOS, C. S., BOSCH‐ROSA, C., BOURI, E., BROWNLEES, C., CALAMIA, A., CAO, V. N., CAPELLE‐BLANCARD, G., ROMERO, L. M. C., CAPORIN, M., CARRION, A., CASKURLU, T., CHAKRABARTY, B., CHEN, J., CHERNOV, M., CHEUNG, W., CHINCARINI, L. B., CHORDIA, T., CHOW, S., CLAPHAM, B., COLLIARD, J., COMERTON‐FORDE, C., CURRAN, E., DAO, T., DARE, W., DAVIES, R. J., BLASIS, R. D., NARD, G. F. D., DECLERCK, F., DEEV, O., DEGRYSE, H., DEKU, S. Y., DESAGRE, C., DIJK, M. A. V., DIM, C., DIMPFL, T., DONG, Y. J., DRUMMOND, P. A., DUDDA, T., DUEVSKI, T., DUMITRESCU, A., DYAKOV, T., DYHRBERG, A. H., DZIELIŃSKI, M., EKSI, A., KALAK, I. E., ELLEN, S. T., EUGSTER, N., EVANS, M. D. D., FARRELL, M., FELEZ‐VINAS, E., FERRARA, G., FERROUHI, E. M., FLORI, A., FLUHARTY‐JAIDEE, J. T., FOLEY, S. D. V., FONG, K. Y. L., FOUCAULT, T., FRANUS, T., FRANZONI, F., FRIJNS, B., FRÖMMEL, M., FU, S. M., FÜLLBRUNN, S. C., GAN, B., GAO, G., GEHRIG, T. P., GEMAYEL, R., GERRITSEN, D., GIL‐BAZO, J., GILDER, D., GLOSTEN, L. R., GOMEZ, T., GORBENKO, A., GRAMMIG, J., GRÉGOIRE, V., GÜÇBILMEZ, U., HAGSTRÖMER, B., HAMBUCKERS, J., HAPNES, E., HARRIS, J. H., HARRIS, L., HARTMANN, S., HASSE, J., HAUTSCH, N., HE, X. (., HEATH, D., HEDIGER, S., HENDERSHOTT, T., HIBBERT, A. M., HJALMARSSON, E., HOELSCHER, S. A., HOFFMANN, P., HOLDEN, C. W., HORENSTEIN, A. R., HUANG, W., HUANG, D., HURLIN, C., ILCZUK, K., IVASHCHENKO, A., IYER, S. R., JAHANSHAHLOO, H., JALKH, N., JONES, C. M., JURKATIS, S., JYLHÄ, P., KAECK, A. T., KAISER, G., KARAM, A., KARMAZIENE, E., KASSNER, B., KAUSTIA, M., KAZAK, E., KEARNEY, F., KERVEL, V. V., KHAN, S. A., KHOMYN, M. K., KLEIN, T., KLEIN, O., KLOS, A., KOETTER, M., KOLOKOLOV, A., KORAJCZYK, R. A., KOZHAN, R., KRAHNEN, J. P., KUHLE, P., KWAN, A., LAJAUNIE, Q., LAM, F. Y. E. C., LAMBERT, M., LANGLOIS, H., LAUSEN, J., LAUTER, T., LEIPPOLD, M., LEVIN, V., LI, Y., LI, H., LIEW, C. Y., LINDNER, T., LINTON, O., LIU, J., LIU, A., LLORENTE, G., LOF, M., LOHR, A., LONGSTAFF, F., LOPEZ‐LIRA, A., MANKAD, S., MANO, N., MARCHAL, A., MARTINEAU, C., MAZZOLA, F., MELOSO, D., MI, M. G., MIHET, R., MOHAN, V., MOINAS, S., MOORE, D., MU, L., MURAVYEV, D., MURPHY, D., NESZVEDA, G., NEUMEIER, C., NIELSSON, U., NIMALENDRAN, M., NOLTE, S., NORDEN, L. L., O'NEILL, P., OBAID, K., ØDEGAARD, B. A., ÖSTBERG, P., PAGNOTTA, E., PAINTER, M., PALAN, S., PALIT, I. J., PARK, A., PASCUAL, R., PASQUARIELLO, P., PASTOR, L., PATEL, V., PATTON, A. J., PEARSON, N. D., PELIZZON, L., PELLI, M., PELSTER, M., PÉRIGNON, C., PFIFFER, C., PHILIP, R., PLÍHAL, T., PRAKASH, P., PRESS, O., PRODROMOU, T., PROKOPCZUK, M., PUTNINS, T., QIAN, Y., RAIZADA, G., RAKOWSKI, D., RANALDO, A., REGIS, L., REITZ, S., RENAULT, T., RENJIE, R. W., RENO, R., RIDDIOUGH, S. J., RINNE, K., RINTAMÄKI, P., RIORDAN, R., RITTMANNSBERGER, T., LONGARELA, I. R., ROESCH, D., ROGNONE, L., ROSEMAN, B., ROŞU, I., ROY, S., RUDOLF, N., RUSH, S. R., RZAYEV, K., RZEŹNIK, A. A., SANFORD, A., SANKARAN, H., SARKAR, A., SARNO, L., SCAILLET, O., SCHARNOWSKI, S., SCHENK‐HOPPÉ, K. R., SCHERTLER, A., SCHNEIDER, M., SCHROEDER, F., SCHÜRHOFF, N., SCHUSTER, P., SCHWARZ, M. A., SEASHOLES, M. S., SEEGER, N. J., SHACHAR, O., SHKILKO, A., SHUI, J., SIKIC, M., SIMION, G., SMALES, L. A., SÖDERLIND, P., SOJLI, E., SOKOLOV, K., SÖNKSEN, J., SPOKEVICIUTE, L., STEFANOVA, D., SUBRAHMANYAM, M. G., SZASZI, B., TALAVERA, O., TANG, Y., TAYLOR, N., THAM, W. W., THEISSEN, E., THIMME, J., TONKS, I., TRAN, H., TRAPIN, L., TROLLE, A. B., VADUVA, M. A., VALENTE, G., NESS, R. A. V., VASQUEZ, A., VEROUSIS, T., VERWIJMEREN, P., VILHELMSSON, A., VILKOV, G., VLADIMIROV, V., VOGEL, S., VOIGT, S., WAGNER, W., WALTHER, T., WEISS, P., WEL, M. V. D., WERNER, I. M., WESTERHOLM, P. J., WESTHEIDE, C., WIKA, H. C., WIPPLINGER, E., WOLF, M., WOLFF, C. C. P., WOLK, L., WONG, W., WRAMPELMEYER, J., WU, Z., XIA, S., XIU, D., XU, K., XU, C., YADAV, P. K., YAGÜE, J., YAN, C., YANG, A., YOO, W., YU, W., YU, Y., YU, S., YUESHEN, B. Z., YUFEROVA, D., ZAMOJSKI, M., ZAREEI, A., ZEISBERGER, S. M., ZHANG, L., ZHANG, S. S., ZHANG, X., ZHAO, L., ZHONG, Z., ZHOU, Z. I., ZHOU, C., ZHU, X. S., ZOICAN, M., & ZWINKELS, R.
- Affiliations
- University of Amsterdam (NL)
- Stockholm School of Economics (SE)
- Universität Innsbruck (AT)
- Aalto University (FI)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- Barcelona School of Economics (ES)
- Bar-Ilan University (IL)
- International Monetary Fund (US)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- European Central Bank (DE)
- Wilfrid Laurier University (CA)
- Georgetown University (US)
- INSEAD (FR)
- Bank of England (GB)
- Auburn University (US)
- Bank for International Settlements (CH)
- HEC Paris (FR)
- BI Norwegian Business School (NO)
- EDF Energy (United Kingdom) (GB)
- University of Liège (BE)
- Norges Bank (NO)
- Durham University (GB)
- Bowling Green State University (US)
- Eötvös Loránd University (HU)
- Emory University (US)
- Goethe University Frankfurt (DE)
- KU Leuven (BE)
- Columbia University (US)
- Erasmus University Rotterdam (NL)
- Frankfurt School of Finance & Management (DE)
- Esade (ES)
- Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales du Nord (FR)
- Université Ibn-Tofail (MA)
- Ghent University (BE)
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York (US)
- École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (CH)
- HEC Montréal (CA)
- Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques (FR)
- Central Michigan University (US)
- John von Neumann University (HU)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE)
- Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IN)
- Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (DE)
- Halle Institute for Economic Research (DE)
- Cornell University (US)
- Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HK)
- Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (DE)
- Duke University (US)
- Federal Housing Finance Agency (US)
- Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (MX)
- Deutsche Bundesbank (DE)
- ORCID
- MENKVELD, ALBERT J.
- DREBER, ANNA
- HOLZMEISTER, FELIX
- JOHANNESSON, MAGNUS
- KIRCHLER, MICHAEL
- WEITZEL, UTZ
- ABUDY, MENACHEM (MENI)
- ADRIAN, TOBIAS
- ALCOCK, JAMIE T.
- ALEXEEV, VITALI
- ALOOSH, ARASH
- AMAYA, DIEGO
- BAIDOO, EDWIN
- BAKALLI, GAETAN
- BARBON, ANDREA
- BINDRA, PARAMPREET C.
- BJØNNES, GEIR H.
- BLACK, JEFFREY R.
- BLACK, BERNARD S.
- BONDARENKO, OLEG
- BOS, CHARLES S.
- BOURI, ELIE
- BROWNLEES, CHRISTIAN
- CAPELLE‐BLANCARD, GUNTHER
- CAPORIN, MASSIMILIANO
- CARRION, ALLEN
- CHAKRABARTY, BIDISHA
- CHEUNG, WILLIAM
- CHINCARINI, LUDWIG B.
- CHORDIA, TARUN
- CLAPHAM, BENJAMIN
- COMERTON‐FORDE, CAROLE
- DAVIES, RYAN J.
- BLASIS, RICCARDO DE
- DEEV, OLEG
- DEGRYSE, HANS
- DEKU, SOLOMON Y.
- DESAGRE, CHRISTOPHE
- DIJK, MATHIJS A. VAN
- DIM, CHUKWUMA
- DIMPFL, THOMAS
- DONG, YUN JIANG
- DUDDA, TOM
- DUMITRESCU, ARIADNA
- DYAKOV, TEODOR
- DZIELIŃSKI, MICHAŁ
- EKSI, ASLI
- KALAK, IZIDIN EL
- EUGSTER, NICOLAS
- EVANS, MARTIN D. D.
- FERRARA, GERARDO
- FERROUHI, EL MEHDI
- FLORI, ANDREA
- FOLEY, SEAN D. V.
- FONG, KINGSLEY Y. L.
- FRANUS, TATIANA
- FRANZONI, FRANCESCO
- FRIJNS, BART
- FRÖMMEL, MICHAEL
- FÜLLBRUNN, SASCHA C.
- GAN, BAOQING
- GAO, GE
- GEHRIG, THOMAS P.
- GEMAYEL, ROLAND
- GERRITSEN, DIRK
- GIL‐BAZO, JAVIER
- GILDER, DUDLEY
- GORBENKO, ARSENY
- GRAMMIG, JOACHIM
- GÜÇBILMEZ, UFUK
- HAGSTRÖMER, BJÖRN
- HAMBUCKERS, JULIEN
- HARRIS, JEFFREY H.
- HASSE, JEAN‐BAPTISTE
- HAUTSCH, NIKOLAUS
- HE, XUE‐ZHONG (TONY)
- HEATH, DAVIDSON
- HEDIGER, SIMON
- HENDERSHOTT, TERRENCE
- HIBBERT, ANN MARIE
- HJALMARSSON, ERIK
- HOELSCHER, SETH A.
- HOFFMANN, PETER
- HORENSTEIN, ALEX R.
- HUANG, WENQIAN
- HUANG, DA
- HURLIN, CHRISTOPHE
- IVASHCHENKO, ALEXEY
- IYER, SUBRAMANIAN R.
- JAHANSHAHLOO, HOSSEIN
- JALKH, NAJI
- JONES, CHARLES M.
- JYLHÄ, PETRI
- KAECK, ANDREAS T.
- KARAM, ARZÉ
- KARMAZIENE, EGLE
- KASSNER, BERNHARD
- KAZAK, EKATERINA
- KEARNEY, FEARGHAL
- KERVEL, VINCENT VAN
- KHAN, SAAD A.
- KHOMYN, MARTA K.
- KLEIN, TONY
- KOETTER, MICHAEL
- KOLOKOLOV, ALEKSEY
- KORAJCZYK, ROBERT A.
- KOZHAN, ROMAN
- KRAHNEN, JAN P.
- KUHLE, PAUL
- LAM, F. Y. ERIC C.
- LAMBERT, MARIE
- LAUSEN, JENS
- LAUTER, TOBIAS
- LEIPPOLD, MARKUS
- LI, YIJIE
- LI, HUI
- LIEW, CHEE YOONG
- LIU, ANQI
- LLORENTE, GUILLERMO
- LOF, MATTHIJS
- MANKAD, SHAWN
- MANO, NICOLA
- MARTINEAU, CHARLES
- MAZZOLA, FRANCESCO
- MELOSO, DEBRAH
- MIHET, ROXANA
- MOINAS, SOPHIE
- MOORE, DAVID
- MU, LIANGYI
- MURAVYEV, DMITRIY
- NIELSSON, ULF
- NIMALENDRAN, MAHENDRARAJAH
- NOLTE, SVEN
- OBAID, KHALED
- ØDEGAARD, BERNT A.
- PALAN, STEFAN
- PALIT, IMON J.
- PARK, ANDREAS
- PASCUAL, ROBERTO
- PASQUARIELLO, PAOLO
- PATTON, ANDREW J.
- PEARSON, NEIL D.
- PELIZZON, LORIANA
- PELSTER, MATTHIAS
- PFIFFER, CAMERON
- PHILIP, RICHARD
- PLÍHAL, TOMÁŠ
- PRAKASH, PUNEET
- PRESS, OLIVER‐ALEXANDER
- PRODROMOU, TINA
- PROKOPCZUK, MARCEL
- RAIZADA, GAURAV
- RAKOWSKI, DAVID
- RANALDO, ANGELO
- REGIS, LUCA
- REITZ, STEFAN
- RENAULT, THOMAS
- RENJIE, REX W.
- RIDDIOUGH, STEVEN J.
- RIORDAN, RYAN
- RITTMANNSBERGER, THOMAS
- ROGNONE, LAVINIA
- ROSEMAN, BRIAN
- ROŞU, IOANID
- RUDOLF, NICOLAS
- RUSH, STEPHEN R.
- RZAYEV, KHALADDIN
- RZEŹNIK, ALEKSANDRA A.
- SANFORD, ANTHONY
- SANKARAN, HARIKUMAR
- SARNO, LUCIO
- SCHARNOWSKI, STEFAN
- SCHERTLER, ANDREA
- SCHUSTER, PHILIPP
- SCHWARZ, MARCO A.
- SEEGER, NORMAN J.
- SHACHAR, OR
- SHKILKO, ANDRIY
- SHUI, JESSICA
- SIMION, GIORGIA
- SMALES, LEE A.
- SOJLI, ELVIRA
- SOKOLOV, KONSTANTIN
- SPOKEVICIUTE, LAIMA
- STEFANOVA, DENITSA
- SUBRAHMANYAM, MARTI G.
- TALAVERA, OLEKSANDR
- TANG, YUEHUA
- THAM, WING WAH
- THEISSEN, ERIK
- THIMME, JULIAN
- TONKS, IAN
- TRAPIN, LUCA
- TROLLE, ANDERS B.
- VALENTE, GIORGIO
- NESS, ROBERT A. VAN
- VASQUEZ, AURELIO
- VEROUSIS, THANOS
- VERWIJMEREN, PATRICK
- VILHELMSSON, ANDERS
- VILKOV, GRIGORY
- VLADIMIROV, VLADIMIR
- VOIGT, STEFAN
- WAGNER, WOLF
- WEISS, PATRICK
- WEL, MICHEL VAN DER
- WESTERHOLM, P. JOAKIM
- WESTHEIDE, CHRISTIAN
- WOLF, MICHAEL
- WOLFF, CHRISTIAN C. P.
- WOLK, LEONARD
- WONG, WING‐KEUNG
- WRAMPELMEYER, JAN
- XIA, SHUO
- XIU, DACHENG
- XU, CAIHONG
- YAGÜE, JOSÉ
- YAN, CHENG
- YOO, WOONGSUN
- YUESHEN, BART Z.
- YUFEROVA, DARYA
- ZAMOJSKI, MARCIN
- ZEISBERGER, STEFAN M.
- ZHANG, LU
- ZHANG, XIAOYU
- ZHAO, LU
- ZHONG, ZHUO
- ZHOU, Z. IVY
- ZHOU, CHEN
- ZOICAN, MARIUS
- ZWINKELS, REMCO
- Venue
- The Journal of Finance
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2024-04-17
- Volume
- 79
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 2339-2390
- ISSN
- 0022-1082 (ISSN-L)
- 1540-6261
- OpenAlex
- W4394881644
- Cited by
- 113
- References
- 8
- Citations by year
- 2026: 42 · 2025: 36 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 3
- FWCI
- 29.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
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- Ghent University Academic Bibliography (Ghent University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UvA-DARE (University of Amsterdam) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Dublin City University Open Access Institutional Repository (Dublin City University) (submittedVersion)
- ENLIGHTEN (Jurnal Bimbingan dan Konseling Islam) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- Infoscience (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- IRIS - Institutional Research Information System (Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- ARCA (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Università Politecnica delle Marche (Università Politecnica delle Marche) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Lirias (KU Leuven) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Tuwhera (Auckland University of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Research Portal (Queen's University Belfast) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Virtual Community of Pathological Anatomy (University of Castilla La Mancha) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Open Access at Essex (University of Essex) (submittedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- RUA, Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Alicante (Universidad de Alicante) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- MADOC (University of Mannheim) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick) (submittedVersion)
- Padua Research Archive (University of Padova) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Singapore Management University Institutional Knowledge (InK) (Singapore Management University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Monash University Research Portal (Monash University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Aaltodoc (Aalto University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Hispana (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- IRIS (submittedVersion)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Lund University Publications (Lund University) (submittedVersion)
- mediaTUM – the media and publications repository of the Technical University Munich (Technical University Munich) (submittedVersion)
- Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Biblos-e Archivo (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- CBS Research Portal (Copenhagen Business School) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DSpace (Open University in the Netherlands) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- SERVAL (Université de Lausanne) (submittedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)
- Funders
- Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse
- Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (P21‐0168)
- Austrian Science Fund (P29362, SFBF63)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Information Systems and Management › Academic Publishing and Open Access
- Keywords
- research reproducibility, peer review, scientific uncertainty, hypothesis testing, research quality
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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