Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments
Open accessAbstract
UN aspirational targets reduce risk but still produce increases in probability of unprecedented extremes.
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Diffenbaugh et al. predicted a two- to threefold increase in the probability of historically unprecedented maximum daily temperatures between 2018 and 2036, and a three- to fivefold increase between 2036 and 2055.
“Diffenbaugh et al. (115) predicted a two- to threefold increase in the probability of historically unprecedented maximum daily temperatures between 2018 and 2036, and a three- to fivefold increase between 2036 and 2055.”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [115]
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References 39 · Cited by 98
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- [13]IPCC, Summary for policymakers, in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, L. L. White, Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014), pp. 1–32.
- [31]M. Collins, R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W. J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A. J. Weaver, M. Wehner, Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P. M. Midgley, Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
- [33]N. S. Diffenbaugh, D. A. Stone, P. Thorne, F. Giorgi, B. C. Hewitson, R. G. Jones, G. J. van Oldenborgh, Cross-chapter box on the regional climate summary figures, in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, L. L. White, Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014), pp. 137–141.
- Authors
- Diffenbaugh, N. S., Singh, D., & Mankin, J. S.
- Affiliations
- Stanford University (US)
- Washington State University Vancouver (US)
- Dartmouth College (US)
- Corresponding author
- Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
- Venue
- Science Advances
- Published
- 2018-02-02
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- eaao3354-eaao3354
- ISSN
- 2375-2548 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5812734
- OpenAlex
- W2789216553
- Cited by
- 98
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 8
- FWCI
- 6.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- Science Advances (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Columbia Academic Commons (Columbia University)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (award338442)
- Stanford University (award338439)
- Earth Institute, Columbia University (award338440)
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University (award338441)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- climate extremes, Paris Agreement, national commitment, 1.5°C target, 2°C target, cumulative emissions, extreme event probability, global warming, climate change mitigation
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