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Estimation of Epidemic Size and Incubation Time Based on Age Characteristics of vCJD in the United Kingdom
Abstract
The size of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) epidemic in the United Kingdom is a major public health concern and a subject of speculation. The cases are young (mean age = 28). Assuming that the risk of developing the disease in susceptible exposed subjects decreases exponentially with age after age 15, that all infections occurred between 1980 and 1989, and that the distribution of the incubation period is lognormal, we estimate that the mean duration of the incubation period is 16.7 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.4 to 23.2] and that the total number of cases will be 205 (upper limit of the 95% CI: 403).
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Citations
Cited by
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Hilton, D. A., Ghani, A. C., Conyers, L., Edwards, P., McCardle, L., Ritchie, D., Penney, M., Hegazy, D., & Ironside, J. W. (2004) · The Journal of Pathology · doi:10.1002/path.1580 · Cited by 444
Molecular Mechanisms of Prion Pathogenesis
Aguzzi, A., Sigurdson, C., & Heikenwaelder, M. (2008) · Annual Review of Pathology: Mechanisms of Disease · doi:10.1146/annurev.pathmechdis.3.121806.154326 · Cited by 351
Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies
Collins, S. J., Lawson, V. A., & Masters, C. L. (2004) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(03)15171-9 · Cited by 339
Human Alveolar Echinococcosis after Fox Population Increase, Switzerland
Schweiger, A., Ammann, R. W., Candinas, D., Clavien, P.-A., Eckert, J., Gottstein, B., Halkic, N., Muellhaupt, B., Prinz, B. M., Reichen, J., et al. (2007) · Emerging Infectious Diseases · doi:10.3201/eid1306.061074 · Cited by 332
THE PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACT OF PRION DISEASES
Belay, E. D., & Schonberger, L. B. (2005) · Annual Review of Public Health · doi:10.1146/annurev.publhealth.26.021304.144536 · Cited by 116
Metadata
- Authors
- Valleron, A.-J., Boelle, P.-Y., Will, R., & Cesbron, J.-Y.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2001-11-23
- Volume
- 294
- Issue
- 5547
- Pages
- 1726-1728
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2066620715
- Cited by
- 240
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 10.42
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Valleron, A.-J., Boelle, P.-Y., Will, R., & Cesbron, J.-Y. (2001). Estimation of Epidemic Size and Incubation Time Based on Age Characteristics of vCJD in the United Kingdom. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1066838
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
