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Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts
Abstract
We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.
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Cited by
Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling and Links with Eurasian Land Surface Variability
Cohen, J., Barlow, M., Kushner, P. J., & Saito, K. (2007) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2007jcli1725.1 · Cited by 339
On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low‐top versions of the CMIP5 models
Charlton‐Perez, A. J., Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Black, R. X., Butler, A. H., Calvo, N., Davis, N. A., Gerber, E. P., Gillett, N., Hardiman, S., et al. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/jgrd.50125 · Cited by 331
Self-citationHigh‐latitude influence of the quasi‐biennial oscillation
Anstey, J. A., & Shepherd, T. G. (2014) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.2132 · Cited by 278
Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales
Meehl, G. A., Richter, J. H., Teng, H., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M. G., England, M. H., Fyfe, J. C., Han, W., et al. (2021) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x · Cited by 231
Self-citationAustralian hot and dry extremes induced by weakenings of the stratospheric polar vortex
Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H. H., Boschat, G., Hudson, D., Thompson, D. W. J., Dowdy, A. J., & Arblaster, J. M. (2019) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0456-x · Cited by 180
Metadata
- Authors
- Baldwin, M. P., Stephenson, D. B., Thompson, Dunkerton, T. J., Charlton, A. J., & O'Neill, A.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2003-08
- Volume
- 301
- Issue
- 5633
- Pages
- 636-640
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W1981047946
- Cited by
- 561
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 18.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Baldwin, M. P., Stephenson, D. B., Thompson, Dunkerton, T. J., Charlton, A. J., & O'Neill, A. (2003). Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1087143
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
