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Extending Earthquakes' Reach Through Cascading
Abstract
Earthquakes, whatever their size, can trigger other earthquakes. Mainshocks cause aftershocks to occur, which in turn activate their own local aftershock sequences, resulting in a cascade of triggering that extends the reach of the initial mainshock. A long-lasting difficulty is to determine which earthquakes are connected, either directly or indirectly. Here we show that this causal structure can be found probabilistically, with no a priori model nor parameterization. Large regional earthquakes are found to have a short direct influence in comparison to the overall aftershock sequence duration. Relative to these large mainshocks, small earthquakes collectively have a greater effect on triggering. Hence, cascade triggering is a key component in earthquake interactions.
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Cited by
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Mohler, G. O., Short, M. B., Brantingham, P. J., Schoenberg, F. P., & Tita, G. E. (2011) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/jasa.2011.ap09546 · Cited by 892
Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing
Mohler, G. O., Short, M. B., Malinowski, S., Johnson, M., Tita, G. E., Bertozzi, A. L., & Brantingham, P. J. (2015) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2015.1077710 · Cited by 381
Green, B., Horel, T., & Papachristos, A. V. (2017) · JAMA Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.8245 · Cited by 228
Metadata
- Authors
- Marsan, D., & Lengliné, O.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2008-02-22
- Volume
- 319
- Issue
- 5866
- Pages
- 1076-1079
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2071778976
- Cited by
- 389
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 12.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Marsan, D., & Lengliné, O. (2008). Extending Earthquakes' Reach Through Cascading. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1148783
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