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El Niño on the Devil's Staircase: Annual Subharmonic Steps to Chaos
Abstract
The source of irregularity in El Niño, the large interannual climate variation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system, has remained elusive. Results from an El Niño model exhibit transition to chaos through a series of frequency-locked steps created by nonlinear resonance with the Earth's annual cycle. The overlapping of these resonances leads to the chaotic behavior. This transition scenario explains a number of climate model results and produces spectral characteristics consistent with currently available data.
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Citations
Cited by
Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Patterns and Mechanisms
Deser, C., Alexander, M. A., Xie, S.-P., & Phillips, A. S. (2010) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453 · Cited by 1,135
El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium
Cobb, K. M., Charles, C. D., Cheng, H., & Edwards, R. L. (2003) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01779 · Cited by 924
The Seasonal Cycle over the Tropical Pacific in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Models
Mechoso, C. R., Robertson, A. W., Barth, N., Davey, M. K., Delecluse, P., Gent, P. R., Ineson, S., Kirtman, B., Latif, M., Treut, H. L., et al. (1995) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2825:tscott>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 560
Self-citationThe Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño
Santoso, A., Mcphaden, M. J., & Cai, W. (2017) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1002/2017rg000560 · Cited by 549
A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO
Latif, M., Anderson, D., Barnett, T., Cane, M., Kleeman, R., Leetmaa, A., O'Brien, J., Rosati, A., & Schneider, E. (1998) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · doi:10.1029/97jc03413 · Cited by 537
Metadata
- Authors
- Jin, F.-F., Neelin, J. D., & Ghil, M.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 1994-04
- Volume
- 264
- Issue
- 5155
- Pages
- 70-72
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2057860734
- Cited by
- 476
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 25.13
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Jin, F.-F., Neelin, J. D., & Ghil, M. (1994). El Niño on the Devil's Staircase: Annual Subharmonic Steps to Chaos. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.264.5155.70
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
