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El Niño Chaos: Overlapping of Resonances Between the Seasonal Cycle and the Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator
Open accessAbstract
The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is modeled as a low-order chaotic process driven by the seasonal cycle. A simple model suggests that the equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator can go into nonlinear resonance with the seasonal cycle and that with strong enough coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, the system may become chaotic as a result of irregular jumping of the ocean-atmosphere system among different nonlinear resonances. An analysis of a time series from an ENSO prediction model is consistent with the low-order chaos mechanism.
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Cited by
Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming
Timmermann, A., Oberhuber, J., Bacher, A., Esch, M., Latif, M., & Roeckner, E. (1999) · Nature · doi:10.1038/19505 · Cited by 1,279
El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity
Timmermann, A., An, S.-I., Kug, J.-S., Jin, F.-F., Cai, W., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K. M., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Stuecker, M. F., et al. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6 · Cited by 1,204
El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium
Cobb, K. M., Charles, C. D., Cheng, H., & Edwards, R. L. (2003) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01779 · Cited by 924
The Seasonal Cycle over the Tropical Pacific in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Models
Mechoso, C. R., Robertson, A. W., Barth, N., Davey, M. K., Delecluse, P., Gent, P. R., Ineson, S., Kirtman, B., Latif, M., Treut, H. L., et al. (1995) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2825:tscott>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 560
The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño
Santoso, A., Mcphaden, M. J., & Cai, W. (2017) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1002/2017rg000560 · Cited by 549
Metadata
- Authors
- Tziperman, E., Stone, L., Cane, M. A., & Jarosh, H.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 1994-04
- Volume
- 264
- Issue
- 5155
- Pages
- 72-74
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W1973633221
- Cited by
- 509
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 23.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: El Niño Chaos: Overlapping of Resonances Between the Seasonal Cycle and the Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1126/science.264.5155.72
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- Tziperman, E., Stone, L., Cane, M. A., & Jarosh, H. (1994). El Niño Chaos: Overlapping of Resonances Between the Seasonal Cycle and the Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.264.5155.72
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