Improved Weather and Seasonal Climate Forecasts from Multimodel Superensemble
Abstract
A method for improving weather and climate forecast skill has been developed. It is called a superensemble, and it arose from a study of the statistical properties of a low-order spectral model. Multiple regression was used to determine coefficients from multimodel forecasts and observations. The coefficients were then used in the superensemble technique. The superensemble was shown to outperform all model forecasts for multiseasonal, medium-range weather and hurricane forecasts. In addition, the superensemble was shown to have higher skill than forecasts based solely on ensemble averaging.
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- Authors
- Krishnamurti, T. N., Kishtawal, C. M., LaRow, T. E., Bachiochi, D. R., Zhang, Z., Williford, C. E., Gadgil, S., & Surendran, S.
- Affiliations
- Florida State University (US)
- Indian Institute of Science Bangalore (IN)
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 1999-09-03
- Volume
- 285
- Issue
- 5433
- Pages
- 1548-1550
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2021510303
- Cited by
- 816
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 43 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 26 · 2016: 51 · 2015: 38 · 2014: 43 · 2013: 40 · 2012: 37
- FWCI
- 9.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NOT FOUND REPOSITORY (Indian Institute of Science Bangalore) (acceptedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Keywords
- weather forecasting, seasonal climate forecasting, multiple linear regression, ensemble averaging, hurricane forecasting, medium-range forecasting, forecast skill
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