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Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation
Open accessAbstract
We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium. Departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.
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Citations
Cited by
Neotectonics of Turkey – a synthesis
Bozkurt, E. (2001) · Geodinamica Acta · doi:10.1016/s0985-3111(01)01066-x · Cited by 1,155
The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting
Scholz, C. H. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781316681473 · Cited by 910
Management of Crush-Related Injuries after Disasters
Sever, M. S., Vanholder, R., & Lameire, N. (2006) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmra054329 · Cited by 386
Analysis of European mtDNAs for Recombination
Elson, J. L., Andrews, R. M., Chinnery, P. F., Lightowlers, R. N., Turnbull, D. M., & Howell, N. (2001) · The American Journal of Human Genetics · doi:10.1086/316938 · Cited by 142
Aman, D. D., & Aytac, G. (2022) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102668 · Cited by 48
Metadata
- Authors
- Parsons, T., Toda, S., Stein, R. S., Barka, A., & Dieterich, J. H.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2000-04-28
- Volume
- 288
- Issue
- 5466
- Pages
- 661-665
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2085807439
- Cited by
- 529
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 28.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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