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Simulationsexperimente zur Wirkung serieller Korrelation auf den Mann-Kendall Trend test
Abstract
Die Wirkung von zeitlicher (serieller) Korrelation in einer Zeitserie auf das Resultat eines Trendtests nach Mann-Kendall wird im Rahmen eines Simulationsexperiments untersucht. Schon geringfügige Korrelationen lassen die fehlerhafte Identifikation von Trends auf Raten deutlich oberhalb der zugelassenen Irrtumshäufigkeit anwachsen. Das Problem kann für Zeitserien, deren zeitliche Statistik denen von AR(1)-Prozessen ähneln, durch einen "Prewhitening"-Ansatz gelöst werden. Der Vorgang wird anhand der Zeitserie der jährlichen Mittelwerte des Luftdruckes in Bombay demonstriert.
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Cited by
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Yue, S., Pilon, P., Phinney, B., & Cavadias, G. (2002) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.1095 · Cited by 2,111
Pan-Arctic seasonal cycles and long-term trends of aerosol properties from 10 observatories
Schmale, J., Sharma, S., Decesari, S., Pernov, J., Massling, A., Hansson, H.-C., von Salzen, K., Skov, H., Andrews, E., Quinn, P. K., et al. (2022) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-22-3067-2022 · Cited by 133
Metadata
- Authors
- Kulkarni, A., & von Storch, H.
- Venue
- Meteorologische Zeitschrift
- Publisher
- Schweizerbart
- Published
- 1995-05-03
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 82-85
- ISSN
- 0941-2948 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2297681400
- Cited by
- 269
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 2.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Simulationsexperimente zur Wirkung serieller Korrelation auf den Mann-Kendall Trend test. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1127/metz/4/1992/82
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- Kulkarni, A., & von Storch, H. (1995). Simulationsexperimente zur Wirkung serieller Korrelation auf den Mann-Kendall Trend test. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/4/1992/82
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