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Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observations on male British doctors
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To compare the hazards of cigarette smoking in men who formed their habits at different periods, and the extent of the reduction in risk when cigarette smoking is stopped at different ages. DESIGN: Prospective study that has continued from 1951 to 2001. SETTING: United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 34 439 male British doctors. Information about their smoking habits was obtained in 1951, and periodically thereafter; cause specific mortality was monitored for 50 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall mortality by smoking habit, considering separately men born in different periods. RESULTS: The excess mortality associated with smoking chiefly involved vascular, neoplastic, and respiratory diseases that can be caused by smoking. Men born in 1900-1930 who smoked only cigarettes and continued smoking died on average about 10 years younger than lifelong non-smokers. Cessation at age 60, 50, 40, or 30 years gained, respectively, about 3, 6, 9, or 10 years of life expectancy. The excess mortality associated with cigarette smoking was less for men born in the 19th century and was greatest for men born in the 1920s. The cigarette smoker versus non-smoker probabilities of dying in middle age (35-69) were 42% nu 24% (a twofold death rate ratio) for those born in 1900-1909, but were 43% nu 15% (a threefold death rate ratio) for those born in the 1920s. At older ages, the cigarette smoker versus non-smoker probabilities of surviving from age 70 to 90 were 10% nu 12% at the death rates of the 1950s (that is, among men born around the 1870s) but were 7% nu 33% (again a threefold death rate ratio) at the death rates of the 1990s (that is, among men born around the 1910s). CONCLUSION: A substantial progressive decrease in the mortality rates among non-smokers over the past half century (due to prevention and improved treatment of disease) has been wholly outweighed, among cigarette smokers, by a progressive increase in the smoker nu non-smoker death rate ratio due to earlier and more intensive use of cigarettes. Among the men born around 1920, prolonged cigarette smoking from early adult life tripled age specific mortality rates, but cessation at age 50 halved the hazard, and cessation at age 30 avoided almost all of it.
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“we found in our meta-analyses of risk reduction among former smokers that cessation shifts smokers into a lower-risk category, with greater reduction in risk for longer durations since cessation.40, 41, 42”
From Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (2021) · cites this paper as [42]
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“Relative risks of all-cause mortality from long-running cohort studies in the UK41, 42 and the USA43 indicate that up to two-thirds of long-term smokers will eventually die of a disease attributable to smoking.”
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In the citing paper
“The frequency or amount of a given behavior or activity is a potential objective indicator of control problems (eg, frequency of alcohol consumption45-47).”
From Assessment and treatment of compulsive sexual behavior disorder: a sexual medicine perspective (2024) · cites this paper as [47]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the citing paper
“Specifically, it has been observed that quitting smoking at the age of 50 years reduces the risk of smoking-related death two-fold, and that cessation at the age of 30 years avoids any risk. In addition, stopping smoking at the age of 60, 50, 40, or 30 years has led to gains of about three years, six years, nine years, and ten years of survival, respectively [70].”
From Skeletal System Biology and Smoke Damage: From Basic Science to Medical Clinic (2021) · cites this paper as [70]
In the citing paper
“There is also evidence that former smokers reduce their risk to that of never-smokers over time [40].”
From The Preventable Causes of Death in the United States: Comparative Risk Assessment of Dietary, Lifestyle, and Metabolic Risk Factors (2009) · cites this paper as [40]
In the citing paper
“After breaking the tobacco withdrawal cycle, through smoking cessation, these systems recover (Mamede et al., 2007), possibly in the same way that other systems damaged by smoking reverse after smoking cessation (Doll et al., 2004; Pirie et al., 2013).”
From An application of the stress-diathesis model: A review about the association between smoking tobacco, smoking cessation, and mental health (2023) · cites this paper as Doll et al., 2004
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Citations
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“Resource Trial arm, mean (SE) (£) NRT (n= 447) E-cigarette (n= 439) Mean cost in the 6 months before baseline Smoking cessation help cost 9 (1) 8 (1) Pharmacotherapy cost 24 (7) 20 (7) Health-care service use cost 612 (108) 512 (62) Cost to the NHS 645 (109) 539 (62) Mean cost in the 6 months post TQD Smoking cessatio…”
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“However, smoking cessation will gradually reverse the health risks associated with smoking, especially in younger individuals [2].”
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“postmenopausal women, whereas most studies have focused on this relationship in men [7] or in case–control studies [3, 13, 14, 19–21, 27].”
BackgroundResultCoe, J. W., Vetelino, M. G., Bashore, C. G., Wirtz, M. C., Brooks, P. R., Arnold, E. P., Lebel, L. A., Fox, C. B., Sands, S. B., Davis, T. I., et al. (2005) · Bioorganic & Medicinal Chemistry Letters · doi:10.1016/j.bmcl.2005.04.036 · Cited by 69
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Liu, S., Chen, Q., Guo, L., Cao, X., Sun, X., Chen, W., & He, J. (2018) · Chinese Journal of Cancer Research · doi:10.21147/j.issn.1000-9604.2018.06.02 · Cited by 66
A rationale and model for addressing tobacco dependence in substance abuse treatment
Richter, K. P., & Arnsten, J. H. (2006) · Substance Abuse Treatment Prevention and Policy · doi:10.1186/1747-597x-1-23 · Cited by 66
Dieler, A. C., Dresler, T., Joachim, K., Deckert, J., Herrmann, M. J., & Fallgatter, A. J. (2014) · European Addiction Research · doi:10.1159/000357941 · Cited by 66
Høie, M. M., Moan, I. S., & Rise, J. (2010) · Addiction Research & Theory · doi:10.3109/16066350903474386 · Cited by 67
“Data from a longitudinal study show that by quitting smoking at the age of 30, it is possible to gain 10 years of life expectancy (Doll et al. 2004).”
BackgroundSmoking cessation in patients with respiratory disease: existing treatments and future directions
Rigotti, N. A. (2013) · The Lancet Respiratory Medicine · doi:10.1016/s2213-2600(13)70063-8 · Cited by 66
Coleman, T. J., Lewis, S., Hubbard, R., & Smith, C. J. (2007) · Addiction · doi:10.1111/j.1360-0443.2007.01766.x · Cited by 66
Ubhi, H. K., Michie, S., Kotz, D., van Schayck, O. C. P., Selladurai, A., & West, R. (2015) · Translational Behavioral Medicine · doi:10.1007/s13142-015-0352-x · Cited by 64
Morris, R. W., Taylor, A. E., Fluharty, M., Bjørngaard, J. H., Åsvold, B. O., Gabrielsen, M. E., Campbell, A., Marioni, R. E., Meena Kumari, B., Korhonen, T., et al. (2015) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2015-008808 · Cited by 73
“death globally: one in two young people taking up lifelong cigarette smoking will die of causes related to it.(1) Enormous efforts have gone into developing interventions”
BackgroundAvoidable Deaths from Smoking: A Global Perspective
Jha, P. (2011) · Public health reviews · doi:10.1007/bf03391651 · Cited by 65
“In comparison to those who continued smoking, the average gain in life expectancy for those who quit smoking at 60, 50, 40, and 30 years of age, was about three, six, nine, and nearly ten years, respectively.(40)”
BackgroundResultInfluentialSocial patterning of individual health behaviours: the case of cigarette smoking
(2005) · Social Determinants of Health · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198565895.003.11 · Cited by 68
Estimating EQ-5D utility values for major health behavioural risk factors in England
Maheswaran, H., Petrou, S., Rees, K., & Stranges, S. (2013) · Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health · doi:10.1136/jech-2012-201019 · Cited by 65
Snus ( Swedish smokeless tobacco) use and risk of stroke: pooled analyses of incidence and survival
Hansson, J., Galanti, M. R., Hergens, M. ‐., Fredlund, P., Ahlbom, A., Alfredsson, L., Bellocco, R., Engström, G., Eriksson, M., Hallqvist, J., et al. (2014) · Journal of Internal Medicine · doi:10.1111/joim.12219 · Cited by 68
Social characteristics associated with disparities in smoking rates in Israel
Kalter‐Leibovici, O., Chetrit, A., Avni, S., Averbuch, E., Novikov, I., & Daoud, N. (2016) · Israel Journal of Health Policy Research · doi:10.1186/s13584-016-0095-2 · Cited by 66
Elmahdy, M., Abdelghany, T. M., Hemann, C. F., Ewees, M. G., Mahgoup, E. M., Eid, M. S., Shalaan, M. T., Alzarie, Y. A., & Zweier, J. L. (2020) · American Journal of Physiology-Heart and Circulatory Physiology · doi:10.1152/ajpheart.00657.2019 · Cited by 68
Smoking Prevalence among Physicians: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Besson, A., Tarpin, A., Flaudias, V., Brousse, G., Laporte, C., Benson, A. C., Navel, V., Bouillon‐Minois, J., & Dutheil, F. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph182413328 · Cited by 66
Chronic diseases in elderly men: underreporting and underdiagnosis
Frost, M., Wraae, K., Gudex, C. M., Nielsen, T. B., Brixen, K., Hagen, C., & Andersen, M. (2011) · Age and Ageing · doi:10.1093/ageing/afr153 · Cited by 65
“Increased physical activity has been found to decrease all-cause mortality [6], even if first commenced in middle age [7], and ex-smokers can eventually experience the same mortality as non-smokers [8].”
BackgroundGualano, M. R., Passi, S., Bert, F., Torre, G. L., Scaioli, G., & Siliquini, R. (2014) · Journal of Public Health · doi:10.1093/pubmed/fdu055 · Cited by 65
Spanopoulos, D., Britton, J., McNeill, A., Ratschen, E., & Szatkowski, L. (2013) · Tobacco Control · doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2012-050765 · Cited by 73
Weber, M. F., Banks, E., Smith, D. P., O’Connell, D. L., & Sitas, F. (2009) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/1471-2458-9-144 · Cited by 65
“Cohort studies are designed to provide reliable information on the effects of different risk factors on outcomes, rather than population prevalence estimates and are generalisable even when based on highly selected groups [36,37].”
BackgroundChristmann, M., Boisseau, C., Kitzinger, R., Berač, C. M., Allmann, S., Sommer, T., Aasland, D., Kaina, B., & Tomicic, M. T. (2016) · Nucleic Acids Research · doi:10.1093/nar/gkw873 · Cited by 65
Gennaro, V., Ceppi, M., Crosignani, P., & Montanaro, F. (2008) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/1471-2458-8-21 · Cited by 63
“This trend reflected what was observed by Doll and Peto among former smokers after smoking cessation [21], and also by Mastrangelo et al.”
ResultCigarette Smoking and Tooth Loss in a Cohort of Older Australians
Arora, M., Schwarz, E., Sivaneswaran, S., & Banks, E. (2010) · The Journal of the American Dental Association · doi:10.14219/jada.archive.2010.0052 · Cited by 64
An Assessment of the Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model for Epidemiologic Studies
Moolgavkar, S. H., Chang, E. T., Watson, H. N., & Lau, E. (2017) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.12865 · Cited by 67
Sex Differences of Risk Factors for Acute Myocardial Infarction in Japanese Patients
Kawano, H., Soejima, H., Kojima, S., Kitagawa, A., Ogawa, H., & Japanese Acute Coronary Syndrome Study (JACSS) Investigators (2006) · Circulation Journal · doi:10.1253/circj.70.513 · Cited by 65
Economic Implications of Health Care Burden for Elderly Population
Tang, B., Li, Z., Hu, S., & Xiong, J.-R. (2022) · INQUIRY The Journal of Health Care Organization Provision and Financing · doi:10.1177/00469580221121511 · Cited by 63
Nicholls, G., Darnton, A., & Harding, A.-H. (2011) · The Annals of Occupational Hygiene · doi:10.1093/annhyg/meq089 · Cited by 63
“The relationship between smoking and lung cancer is well documented (Doll and Peto, 1978; Doll et al., 2004; IARC, 2004), along with the benefits of smoking cessation (US DHHS, 1990; Peto et al., 2000).”
Expression of tissue and plasma kallikreins and kinin B1and B2receptors in lung cancer
Chee, J., Naran, A., Misso, N. L. A., Thompson, P. J., & Bhoola, K. D. (2008) · Biological Chemistry · doi:10.1515/bc.2008.139 · Cited by 63
“…with the landmark study by Doll and Hill in 1954 of 40 000 male doctors in the UK, which was subsequently reconfirmed 40 and 50 years later (Doll et al., 1994, 2004; Doll Tissue kallikrein (hK1, EC 3.4.21.35) and plasma kallikrein (PK, hKB1, EC 3.4.21.34) are serine proteases that catalyse…”
BackgroundInfluentialEffects of Obesity and Smoking on U.S. Life Expectancy
Peto, R., Whitlock, G., & Jha, P. (2010) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmc1000079 · Cited by 63
Self-citationStapleton, J. A., & West, R. (2012) · Nicotine & Tobacco Research · doi:10.1093/ntr/ntr236 · Cited by 62
Smoking: relationship to chronic bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and mortality
Pelkonen, M. K. (2008) · Current Opinion in Pulmonary Medicine · doi:10.1097/mcp.0b013e3282f379e9 · Cited by 62
How old are you, really? Communicating chronic risk through ‘effective age’ of your body and organs
Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2016) · BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making · doi:10.1186/s12911-016-0342-z · Cited by 65
Social capital and health in China: exploring the mediating role of lifestyle
Xue, X., & Cheng, M. (2017) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4883-6 · Cited by 61
Respiratory, cardiovascular and other physiological consequences of smoking cessation
Gratziou, C. (2009) · Current Medical Research and Opinion · doi:10.1185/03007990802707642 · Cited by 62
Tobacco control policy and socio-economic inequalities in smoking in 27 European countries
Bosdriesz, J. R., Willemsen, M. C., Stronks, K., & Kunst, A. E. (2016) · Drug and Alcohol Dependence · doi:10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2016.05.020 · Cited by 63
Factors Associated With Success of Smoke-Free Initiatives in Australian Psychiatric Inpatient Units
Lawn, S., & Campion, J. (2010) · Psychiatric Services · doi:10.1176/ps.2010.61.3.300 · Cited by 61
Black, C., Bagust, A., Boland, A., Walker, S., McLeod, C., de Verteuil, R., Ayres, J. G., Bain, L., Thomas, S., Godden, D., et al. (2006) · Health Technology Assessment · doi:10.3310/hta10030 · Cited by 61
Tobacco smoking and level of education in Brazil, 2006.
Silva, G., Valente, J., de Almeida, L. M., de Moura, E. C., & Malta, D. (2009) · Revista de Saúde Pública · doi:10.1590/s0034-89102009000900007 · Cited by 21
The risk of lung cancer with increasing time since ceasing exposure to asbestos and quitting smoking
Reid, A., de Klerk, N. H., Ambrosini, G. L., Berry, G., & Musk, A. W. (2006) · Occupational and Environmental Medicine · doi:10.1136/oem.2005.025379 · Cited by 61
Loss of Cardioprotective Effects at the ADAMTS7 Locus as a Result of Gene-Smoking Interactions
Saleheen, D., Zhao, W., Young, R., Nelson, C. P., Ho, W.-K., Ferguson, J. F., Rasheed, A., Ou, K., Nürnberg, S., Bauer, R. C., et al. (2017) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/circulationaha.116.022069 · Cited by 61
Nargis, N., Yong, H., Driezen, P., Mbulo, L., Zhao, L., Fong, G. T., Thompson, M. E., Borland, R., Palipudi, K. M., Giovino, G. A., et al. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0220223 · Cited by 66
“, gain in life expectancy) is even greater when smokers quit young [54].”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Doll, R., Peto, R., Boreham, J., & Sutherland, I.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Doll, Richard
- ORCID
- Peto, Richard
- Venue
- BMJ
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2004-06-22
- Volume
- 328
- Issue
- 7455
- Pages
- 1519
- ISSN
- 0007-1447 (ISSN-L)
- 0959-8138
- 1468-5833
- PMC
- PMC437139
- OpenAlex
- W4292672078
- Cited by
- 2,920
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 81 · 2025: 79 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 135 · 2022: 127 · 2021: 134 · 2020: 159 · 2019: 135 · 2018: 158 · 2017: 134 · 2016: 153 · 2015: 165 · 2014: 146 · 2013: 182 · 2012: 162
- FWCI
- 59.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- BMJ (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Cancer Research UK
- British Heart Foundation
- University of Oxford
- Medical Research Council
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Research
- Keywords
- cigarette smoking, mortality, smoking cessation, life expectancy, birth cohort differences, vascular disease, neoplasms, respiratory diseases, smoking intensity, cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, alcohol consumption, tobacco control, smoking cessation counseling, smoking cessation interventions
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Epidemiologic Methods, United Kingdom, Humans, Lung Neoplasms, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Neoplasms, Physicians, Prospective Studies, Smoking, Smoking Cessation, Age Distribution
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