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Cost benefit analysis of 20 mph zones in London
Abstract
Evidence suggests that 20 mph zones are an effective intervention to reduce casualties from road traffic crashes in urban areas. This analysis compares the costs of construction of the 20 mph zone intervention in high and low casualty areas in London to the value of casualties avoided over 5 and 10 year time horizons. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to quantify uncertainty in the results associated with model parameters. Results indicate a net present value (NPV) of £18 947 (90% credible limits −£75 252 to £82 021 2005 prices) after 5 years and £67 306 (£−29 157 to £137 890) after 10 years when 20 mph zones are implemented in areas with one or more casualty per kilometre of road. Simulations from our model suggest that the ‘threshold of casualties’ where NPVs become positive using a 10 year time horizon is 0.7 casualties per kilometre.
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The median ROI for wider determinants interventions was 5.6.
“The median ROI was 5.6 (range 1.119 to 10.820) with a median CBR of 7.1”
From Return on investment of public health interventions: a systematic review (2017) · cites this paper as [19]
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Return on investment of public health interventions: a systematic review
Masters, R., Anwar, E., Collins, B., Cookson, R., & Capewell, S. (2017) · Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health · doi:10.1136/jech-2016-208141 · Cited by 480
Metadata
- Authors
- Steinbach, R., Cairns, J., Grundy, C., & Edwards, P.
- Affiliations
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Steinbach, Rebecca
- Venue
- Injury Prevention
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2012-08-30
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 211-213
- ISSN
- 1353-8047 (ISSN-L)
- 1475-5785
- OpenAlex
- W2134218048
- Cited by
- 19
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 3 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 4.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Injury Prevention (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality › Traffic and Road Safety
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Injury Epidemiology and Prevention
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Civil and Structural Engineering › Road Transport and Highway Systems
- Keywords
- road traffic casualties, cost-benefit analysis, net present value
- MeSH terms
- Accident Prevention, Accidents, Traffic, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Humans, London, Time Factors, Urban Health, Models, Econometric
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